High Surf Advisory 11, NWS Los Angeles, CA

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
130 PM PST WED FEB 29 2012

.SYNOPSIS...

A LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND SPREAD POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION
WITH BREEZY WINDS INTO EARLY THURSDAY. A HIGH WILL MOVE IN FRIDAY
WITH GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS PREDICTED INTO SUNDAY...WITH THE WARMEST
AFTERNOONS DURING THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN MONDAY AND THE
ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP. A LOW WILL
APPROACH BY TUESDAY FOR MORE CLOUDS AND A TEMPERATURE RETURN TO
NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...WEAK SYSTEM SAGGING SOUTH THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING LIGHT SHOWERS NORTH OF PT
CONCEPTION. AS THIS SYSTEM DROPS SOUTH OF THE TRANSVERSE RANGES THE
DOWNSLOPE PREVAILING NORTHWEST FLOW WILL INHIBIT A LOT OF THE PRECIP
FROM REACHING THE GROUND, THOUGH I SUSPECT A FEW SPRINKLES WILL FALL
IN MANY AREAS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAIN THOUGH WILL BE
EASTERN LA COUNTY WHERE THERE IS STILL A LITTLE BIT OF UPSLOPE
INFLUENCE THERE AS THE FRONT REACHES THE SAN GABRIELS. SO PERHAPS A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OR EVEN A TENTH OF AN INCH THERE OVERNIGHT, MAINLY
FOOTHILLS AND MTNS. PRETTY MUCH A NON-EVENT PRECIP-WISE. ONE THING
TO WATCH FOR IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME GRAPEVINE SNOW SHOWERS
EARLY THURSDAY AS SNOW LEVELS DROP TO NEAR PASS LEVEL AND INCREASING
NORTHWEST FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL PROVIDE SOME LIFTING. NOT EXPECTING
MUCH BUT WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER THE
GRAPEVINE ALONG WITH GUSTY ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS THURSDAY MORNING.

THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE WINDS, WHICH WILL BE
INCREASING THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. PRETTY GOOD SUBSIDENCE WILL
HELP TRANSPORT SOME OF THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE,
AND THE I5 AREA WILL CERTAINLY BE AT RISK FOR WARNING LEVEL WINDS AS
THE EVENT PEAKS THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SO IN
ADDITION TO THE LOW END ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS FOR THE ANTELOPE VALLEY
TODAY WE SHOULD SEE A STRONGER ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS THERE THURSDAY
AND ALSO INCLUDING THE ADJACENT MOUNTAINS. WILL ALSO INCLUDE A HIGH
WIND WATCH FOR THE LA/VTU MTNS (BUT FOCUSING ON THE I5 CORRIDOR)
THURSDAY EVENING. NORTH WINDS MAY ALSO APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE THURSDAY EVENING AS WELL AS THE SANTA
CLARITA VALLEY AS THOSE WINDS FILTER DOWN BELOW THE TEJON PASS. NOT
ANTICIPATING WIND ADVISORIES FOR THE LA/VTU COAST THURSDAY BUT COULD
SEE SOME GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH BY AFTERNOON.

ON FRIDAY WE TRANSITION TO A TRADITIONAL SANTA ANA NORTHEAST WIND
EVENT. DECIDED TO EXTEND THE MTN HIGH WIND WATCH THROUGH MID DAY
FRIDAY TO INCORPORATE THE SHIFT TO NORTHEAST, THOUGH DIFFERENT AREAS
WILL BE IMPACTED AND WINDS MAY NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG. ALSO WILL
LIKELY SEE ADVISORY LEVEL NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE LA/VENTURA
VALLEYS, SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS (POSSIBLY CLOSE TO WARNING LEVEL
OVER THE PEAKS THERE) AND PERHAPS EVEN THE MALIBU AND VENTURA COAST.
WILL SEE HOW THE MODELS COME IN TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS FAR AS THE
STRENGTH OF THE OFFSHORE EVENT FRIDAY BEFORE SETTLING ON HEADLINES
FOR THOSE AREAS.

ANOTHER COOL AND BREEZY DAY ON TAP THURSDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY AROUND
60, BUT FEELING COOLER WITH THE STIFF BREEZE. AS WE SHIFT TO
NORTHEAST FRIDAY THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND BUT PRETTY MODEST AT
FIRST. MAINLY 60S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS, POSSIBLY A FEW LOWER 70S,
UNDER CLEAR SKIES. A GOOD 10 DEGREE JUMP IN HIGHS MOST AREAS SAT,
MEANING SOME ISOLATED 80S POSSIBLE. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
CURRENTLY PROJECTED TO BE A LITTLE STRONGER SATURDAY THAN FRIDAY BUT
LESS UPPER SUPPORT. MY SUSPICION IS THE MODELS WILL BACK OFF THE SAT
GRADIENT LEAVING JUST SOME ISOLATED GUSTY WINDS, POSSIBLY NEAR
ADVISORY LEVEL THROUGH THE USUAL FAVORED PASSES AND CANYONS OF
VENTURA/LA COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...WARMING TREND TO CONTINUE SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ALOFT. GRADIENTS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THOUGH SO
LESS WIND EXPECTED. A COOLING TREND SET TO BEGIN MONDAY AS THE HIGH
WEAKENS AND ONSHORE FLOW STARTS TO RETURN. ON TUESDAY NIGHT THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW A SYSTEM DROPPING THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WITH
THE ECMWF MUCH SHARPER AND COLDER. TOO INSIDE AND DRY FOR PRECIP
THIS FAR WEST, BUT IT COULD BE A SETUP FOR A DECENT OFFSHORE EVENT
FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE COMPLETELY OUT OF
PHASE AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE GFS SHOWING A DECENT TROF
ALONG THE WEST WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A PRETTY SIZABLE RIDGE ALONG THE
SAME LONGITUDE.

&&

.AVIATION...29/1800Z.
A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM IS SAGGING TO THE SOUTH IN AN ATTEMPT TO BRING
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE REGION NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION THIS
AFTERNOON AND SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
OCCASIONALLY YIELD TO MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO CEILING OR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS AS THE PRECIPITATION SLIDES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA.
SOME TAF SITES WILL NOT RECEIVE ANY PRECIPITATION.

KLAX AND KBUR...INCREASING CLOUDS WILL BKN SKIES TONIGHT AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER. VFR WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WATCH (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

PUBLIC...WOFFORD
AVIATION...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
222 PM PST WED FEB 29 2012

CAZ034>041-044>046-051>054-059-087-088-547-548-011400-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-SANTA YNEZ VALLEY-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-CUYAMA VALLEY-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST-VENTURA COUNTY COAST-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY COAST INCLUDING DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES-
VENTURA COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-VENTURA COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS-
SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS RECREATIONAL AREA-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS EXCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA RANGE-
ANTELOPE VALLEY-CATALINA ISLAND-SANTA CLARITA VALLEY-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY SAN FERNANDO VALLEY-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY SAN GABRIEL VALLEY-
222 PM PST WED FEB 29 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE... TODAY AND TONIGHT

GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ANTELOPE VALLEY THROUGH THIS
EVENING. INCREASING NORTHWEST SWELLS WILL BRING HIGH SURF TO CENTRAL
COAST BEACHES LATER TONIGHT.

* WIND ADVISORY..............SEE WWUS76 KLOX - NPWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* HIGH SURF ADVISORY.........SEE WHUS46 KLOX - CFWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK......SEE FZUS56 KLOX - SRFLOX FOR DETAILS *

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH
OF PT CONCEPTION...THE MOUNTAINS...AND ANTELOPE VALLEY THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. A SANTA ANA WIND EVENT WILL BRING GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS TO THE LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTY COAST...VALLEY...AND
MOUNTAIN AREAS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HIGH SURF WILL CONTINUE ALONG
THE CENTRAL COAST THROUGH FRIDAY.

* HIGH WIND WATCH............SEE WWUS76 KLOX - NPWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* WIND ADVISORY..............SEE WWUS76 KLOX - NPWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* HIGH SURF ADVISORY.........SEE WHUS46 KLOX - CFWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* GALE WATCH...............SEE WHUS76 KLOX - MWWLOX FOR DETAILS *

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

WOFFORD