Gale Watch 9, NWS Los Angeles, CA

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1002 AM PST SUN MAR 4 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TODAY. A NOTICEABLE COOLING TREND WILL DEVELOP ON MONDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP ON TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM PASSES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
AGAIN BUILD OVER THE AREA STARTING ON WEDNESDAY...TRIGGERING A
WARMING TREND.

&&

.UPDATE...
WEAK OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS CONTINUE THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT
STILL SOME DECENT OFFSHORE WINDS IN THOSE FAVORED LOCATIONS BUT JUST
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. 12Z NAM SUGGESTS THESE WINDS ARE PEAKING NOW
AND SHOULD WEAKEN THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON. TEMPS RUNNING 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME WHICH IS ON TRACK WITH OUR
CURRENT FORECAST. I SEE NO PROBLEMS WITH OUR CURRENT FORECAST IN THE
FIRST 24 HOURS SO NO CHANGES OR UPDATES THIS MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ON MONDAY AND HEIGHTS WILL FALL THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. MORE IMPORTANTLY PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL BE TRENDING STRONGLY
ONSHORE. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR BUT THERE WILL BE MARKED COOLING.

A COLD TROF WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. THE WEAK LIFT OF
THE TROF COMBINED WITH ACTUAL ONSHORE FLOW WILL CREATE A MARINE
LAYER FOR MOST COASTAL SECTIONS (SBA SOUTH COAST MIGHT ESCAPE IT)
AND THE COASTAL VALLEYS.

TUESDAY WILL BE A COOL AND PARTLY CLOUDY DAY AS THE TROF SWINGS
OVERHEAD AND HEIGTS BOTTOM OUT AT A JANUARY LIKE 546 DM. THESE LOW
HEIGTS GOOD ONSHORE FLOW AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL ALL COMBINE TO
MAKE TUESDAY THE COLDEST DAY OF THE NEXT 7. MAX TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE
TO EVEN MAKE IT TO 60 DEGREES.

A BRIEF BURST OF NORTH WINDS SPILLS OVER THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL LIKELY BE ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS THROUGH THE
I-5 CORRIDOR AND IN THE SANTA CLARITA VLY. A FEW MDLS SHOW THESE
NORTH WINDS CREATING SOME UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME SHOWERS OVER
THE NORTH SLOPES. WILL NOT MENTION ANY RAIN IN THIS FORECAST BUT
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...
ALL MEDIUM RANGE MDLS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A RIDGE WILL BUILD
INTO THE AREA STARTING WEDNESDAY AND LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SIMULTANEOUSLY BUILD INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND SET UP
ANOTHER ROUND OF OFFSHORE WINDS. MAX TEMPS WILL WARM EACH DAY UNDER
CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS WILL WARM ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY AND THEN KEEP
CLIMBING.

&&

.AVIATION...04/1800Z.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA WILL
SHIFT OVER THE AREA AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE AREA CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST. UPPER LEVEL MODERATE LIGHT TO
MODERATE WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL WHILE MID LEVEL LIGHT
EAST WINDS BECOME LIGHT SOUTH SOUTHWEST AFTER 05/12Z. WEAK ONSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN 04/20-05/03Z AND WEAK TO MODERATE AFTER
05/20Z OTHERWISE WEAK OFFSHORE GRADIENT.

KLAX...CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS VERY LIKELY.

KBUR...CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS VERY LIKELY.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&

PUBLIC...TRM
SYNOPSIS...RAT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
845 AM PST SUN MAR 4 2012

CAZ034>041-044>046-051>054-059-087-088-547-548-051400-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-SANTA YNEZ VALLEY-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-CUYAMA VALLEY-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST-VENTURA COUNTY COAST-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY COAST INCLUDING DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES-
VENTURA COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-VENTURA COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS-
SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS RECREATIONAL AREA-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS EXCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA RANGE-
ANTELOPE VALLEY-CATALINA ISLAND-SANTA CLARITA VALLEY-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY SAN FERNANDO VALLEY-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY SAN GABRIEL VALLEY-
845 AM PST SUN MAR 4 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE... TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL MARCH
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE AREA. A GALE FORCE WIND OUTLOOK HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TUESDAY
MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT...SEE FZUS76 KLOX - MWSLOX FOR DETAILS *

TRM