Gale Watch 3, NWS Los Angeles, CA

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
330 AM PST MON FEB 6 2012

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH SOME NORTHEAST
WINDS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BRINGING RAIN
AND GUSTY WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ONCE AGAIN
BY LATE WEEK...BRINGING A RETURN OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
SOME GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...
ALL SORTS OF COMPUTER PROBLEMS THIS MORNING WHICH IS AFFECTING MOST
OF OUR PRODUCTS. HOPEFULLY THESE PROBLEMS WILL BE RESOLVED SOON.

NONE TOO EXCITING DAY TODAY. A WEAK RIDGE IS OVERHEAD WITH WEAK
OFFSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE. QUITE A BROAD SWATH OF UPPER CLOUDS
MOVING OVERHEAD WHICH WILL LIMIT THE SUNSHINE. EVERYTHING WILL
COMBINE TO PRODUCE A DAY WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

ALL EYES ON THE TUESDAY STORM. SADLY THERE IS NO CONSENSUS ON THE
EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM. THE GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A
CLOSER TO SHORE TRACK WHILE THE GEM AND THE EC TRACK THE STORM
FURTHER TO THE WEST. THE DIFFERENCE IN TRACKS DOES NOT APPLY TO THE
QUESTION OF IF ITS GOING TO RAIN ONLY TO HOW MUCH RAIN. IT LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL START TO RAIN OVER THE CENTRAL COAST SOMETIME BEFORE
DAWN TUESDAY AND THEN WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY.
MOVED POPS UP TO NEAR 100 PERCENT FOR THE DAY ACROSS THE AREA EXCEPT
FOR THE ANTELOPE VLY WHICH STILL HAS A CHANCE OF REMAINING ON THE
DRY SIDE ESP IF THE STORM TAKES A MORE WESTERLY TRACK.

IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN THERE WILL A GOOD SHOT OF SOUTH WINDS WITH
THIS SYSTEM. ISSUED HIGH WIND WATCHES FOR ALL THE MTNS AND INTERIOR
VLYS OF SLO AND SBA COUNTY. STARTING AT 300 AM TUE FOR THE SLO/SBA
AREA AND 600 AM FOR THE VTA/LA MTNS DUE TO THE WEST TRACK OF THE
STORM CENTER ONLY THE NW PORTION OF THE L.A. MTNS WILL BE AFFECTED.
WIND ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS WILL ALSO BE LIKELY ACROSS THE REST OF SLO
SBA AND VTA COUNTIES AND EXPECT THE DAY SHIFT WILL ISSUE THESE
SHORTER FUSE PRODUCTS THIS AFTERNOON.

RAINFALL ESTIMATES RIGHT NOW CALL FOR MOST AREAS TO RECEIVE A HALF
TO AN INCH OF RAIN. THE NW PORTION OF SLO COUNTY...THE SANTA YNEZ
RANGE...AND THE WESTERN COASTAL MTN SLOPES OF VTA COUNTY COULD
RECEIVE AROUND 2 INCHES OF RAIN. THE ANTELOPE VLY WILL LIKELY GET A
QUARTER INCH OR LESS. THESE AMOUNTS ARE SORT OF A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
THE ALL THE MDL TRACKS. IF THE STORM PULLS MORE TO THE WEST THERE
WILL BE MUCH LESS RAIN. IF IT TRACKS NEARER TO SHORE THERE WILL BE
HIGHER RAIN TOTALS. SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT AT 7000 FEET AND WILL
FALL SLOWLY TO 5500 FEET BY TUESDAY EVENING. WITH ALL THE SOUTH
WINDS THE SNOW LEVELS COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER OVER THE COASTAL
PEAKS THAN IN THE INTERIOR. IT LOOKS LIKE 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW
COULD FALL WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS ON THE HIGHEST PEAKS.

THE EC/GEM HAVE BEEN THE GO TO MDLS THIS WINTER AND SHADED THE TRACK
OF THE LOW TO THESE MDLS MORE WESTERLY TRACK WHICH WOULD KEEP THE
COLDER MORE UNSTABLE AIR TO THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP THE TSTM THREAT
OFF TO THE WEST OF US.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ALL MDLS FORM A CLOSED LOW AND PUSH IT
DOWN THE COAST. THIS TRACK WILL PULL THE RAIN AWAY FROM THE SLO AND
SBA COUNTY AND MOVE THE BEST CHC OF RAIN TO L.A. COUNTY WHERE WRAP
AROUND FLOW WILL KEEP A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING. MOST SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DONE BY NOON.

MAX TEMPS TUESDAY ACROSS THE COAST AND VLYS WILL HOVER AROUND 60
RATHER TYPICAL FOR A FEBRUARY RAIN SYSTEM. STILL COOL WEDNESDAY BUT
WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND RISING HGTS LOOK FOR ABOUT 6 DEGREES OF
WARMING.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...
EC AND GFS AGREE THAT A LARGE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THU AND
FRI WITH A CLEARING...DRYING...AND WARMING TREND. MAX TEMPS WILL
RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST AREAS. THERE MIGHT BE ENOUGH WIND EACH
MORNING TO WARRANT A LOW GRADE ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF
L.A. COUNTY AND THE EASTERN PORTION OF VTA COUNTY.

THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND AND A COOLING TREND WILL
ENSUE ALONG WITH A DROP OFF IN WINDS AND AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL
CLOUDS.

&&

.AVIATION...

06/1200Z

WILL BE ISSUED SOON.

KLAX...

KBUR...

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXSPSLOX).

&&

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION...DB
SYNOPSIS...ASR

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
223 PM PST SUN FEB 5 2012

CAZ034>041-044>046-051>054-059-087-088-547-548-061400-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-SANTA YNEZ VALLEY-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-CUYAMA VALLEY-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST-VENTURA COUNTY COAST-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY COAST INCLUDING DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES-
VENTURA COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-VENTURA COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS-
SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS RECREATIONAL AREA-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS EXCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA RANGE-
ANTELOPE VALLEY-CATALINA ISLAND-SANTA CLARITA VALLEY-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY SAN FERNANDO VALLEY-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY SAN GABRIEL VALLEY-
223 PM PST SUN FEB 5 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE... TODAY AND TONIGHT

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...A PACIFIC STORM WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE
AREA...BRINGING RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW TO THE AREA. AT THIS
TIME...RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN ONE
QUARTER AND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH...WITH AROUND ONE AND ONE HALF
INCHES ACROSS FAVORED SOUTH SLOPES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SANTA BARBARA
AND WESTERN VENTURA COUNTIES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

THOMPSON