Special Weather Statement, NWS Chicago, IL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1238 AM CDT SUN AUG 5 2012

.DISCUSSION...
256 PM CDT

IMMEDIATE CONCERN IS THE ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND THE CONCERN
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

ONGOING CONVECTION PRODUCED AN MCV WHICH GENERATED A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN IOWA.  THE ENVIRONMENT OUT
AHEAD OF THE THUNDERSTORMS OVER ILLINOIS AND INDIANA IS VERY
WARM...HUMID AND UNSTABLE.  AS OF 19Z...MUCAPE VALUES WERE OVER 3000
J/KG WITH AN AREA IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG POOLING ALONG A WARM FRONT
PUSHING NWD INTO THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
UPSTREAM...THESE STORMS HAVE A HISTORY OF PRODUCING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH UP TO 2 INCHES FALLING IN A
30 MINUTE PERIOD.  EXPECT THE ACTIVITY TO TRACK EASTERLY FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.  WITH MEAN LAYER FLOW TURNING A LITTLE SOUTH OF EAST
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD TAKE A SLIGHT RIGHT
TURN SO THE THUNDER SHOULD IMPACT ALMOST ALL OF THE CWA...HITTING
THE ROCKFORD METRO AREA BY AROUND 3PM AND THE CHICAGO METRO AREA
BETWEEN 430PM AND 5PM.  THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WITH THESE STORMS
REMAINS DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 70MPH. WITH PWATS EXPECTED TO BE 2 TO
2.5 INCHES AS THE STORMS MOVE THROUGH...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
THE POSSIBILITY FOR 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN A 30 MINUTE
PERIOD.  THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN FALLING IN SUCH A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME
MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN URBANIZED AREAS.
THERE IS ALSO AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL THREAT WITH THE
STORMS...ESPECIALLY AT THE INTERSECTION OF THE WARM FRONT AND THE
MAIN CONVECTIVE BOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCV.  THIS LOCATION WOULD BE
MORE CONDUCIVE TO THE ROTATING STRONG UPDRAFTS NECESSARY TO SUPPORT
LARGE HAIL.  THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS A STRONG DIURNAL
INFLUENCE...SO...EXPECT THAT THE STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH IN
INTENSITY TOWARD SUNSET.  THE CURRENT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS
IN EFFECT THROUGH 01Z...AT WHICH TIME THE STORMS SHOULD EITHER
WEAKEN OR PUSH EAST OF THE NWRN INDIANA COUNTIES OF THE CWA.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THERE IS
A CHANCE OF SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE LATE
NIGHT HOURS AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.
EXPECT THAT ALL PCPN POTENTIAL SHOULD END DURG THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OUT OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.  FOLLOWING THE VERY WARM...HUMID
CONDITIONS OF TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN
THE 70S...SUNDAY SHOULD FEEL ALMOST COOL...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
LOW TO MIDDLE 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S.

FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING FROM WEST TEXAS
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND A POLAR LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WILL
SET UP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...AND THE JET STREAM WELL INTO
CANADA...EXPECT LITTLE CHANCE FOR ANY ADDITIONAL PCPN.  AS THE SFC
HIGH BUILDS TO THE EAST...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE
AGAIN...BUT WITH A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS EXPECTED TO BE IN
PLACE...DO NOT EXPECT EXTREME HEAT...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S.  A GENERALLY WEAK SFC PRESSURE
PATTERN FOR THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD ALLOW FOR PERIODIC LAKE
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT...KEEPING THE IMMEDIATE LAKEFRONT LOCATIONS A BIT
COOLER.  THE ONLY DAY WHERE THERE WILL BE LESS OF A CHANCE FOR A
LAKE BREEZE WILL BE TUESDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS OUT OF THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO NRN IL/IN.  THE ASSOCIATED UPPER
TROUGH SHOULD DIG INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.  THE WEAK SFC FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ADEQUATE FOR A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT ACTIVITY WOULD BE CONFINED
TO THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS THE STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL
FORCING WITH BE CONFINED TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE
SEASONABLE...WITH OTHERWISE...LITTLE OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT
PCPN.

KREIN

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...

* WIND SHIFT TO NE WITH LAKE BREEZE SUN AFTERNOON

IZZI

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...

UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
AT THIS TIME WITH SOME VFR CIGS AND EVEN SOME PATCHY MVFR...THOUGH
THE LOWER CIGS SEEM TO BE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. SCTD SHRA/TSRA
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND INCREASE A BIT
AFTER SUNRISE WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20KT EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BY LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD
GRADUALLY VEER TO MORE 340-350 DIRECTION IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH
SHOULD FAVOR LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AND EVENTUAL LAKE BREEZE
PASSAGE AND WIND SHIFT TO NE FOR THE CHGO METRO TERMINALS MID-LATE
AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE ON TIMING WIND SHIFT THIS FAR OUT IS
LOW...STRONGER GRADIENT FLOW COULD DELAY THE WIND SHIFT TO NE BY A
COUPLE HOURS CONVERSELY SLIGHTLY LIGHTER WINDS COULD ALLOW WIND
SHIFT TO OCCUR AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER. WINDS SHOULD QUICKLY
SUBSIDE SUNDAY EVENING.

IZZI

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...

* MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SHIFT TO NE WITH LAKE BREEZE
  THIS AFTERNOON...LOW CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE TIMING

IZZI

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

MONDAY-FRIDAY...VFR

MTF

&&

.MARINE...

311 PM...FAIRLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE FOR EARLY AUGUST LIFTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON WITH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES AND THE PLAINS. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL SHIFT WESTERLY BEHIND THIS FRONT THIS EVENING THEN TURN MORE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL
TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT ACROSS THE LAKE SUNDAY MORNING WITH SPEEDS TO
30 KTS LIKELY. THE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN STRONGEST AND LONGEST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OR SO OF THE LAKE WHERE A FEW GUSTS TO
LOW END GALES ARE POSSIBLE BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH FOR ANY
HEADLINES AT THIS TIME BUT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED THROUGH THE
NIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOUTH TO NORTH LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH SPREADS EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
LAKES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
LAKES REGION TUESDAY. CMS

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK...INZ001-INZ002...7 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT
     MONDAY.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ744-LMZ745...5 AM SUNDAY TO 9 PM
     SUNDAY.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1156 PM CDT SAT AUG 4 2012

ILZ003>006-008-010>014-019>023-032-033-039-INZ001-002-010-011-019-
060500-
WINNEBAGO-BOONE-MCHENRY-LAKE ILLINOIS-OGLE-LEE-DE KALB-KANE-
DUPAGE-COOK-LA SALLE-KENDALL-GRUNDY-WILL-KANKAKEE-LIVINGSTON-
IROQUOIS-FORD-LAKE INDIANA-PORTER-NEWTON-JASPER-BENTON-
1156 PM CDT SAT AUG 4 2012 /1256 AM EDT SUN AUG 5 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...OVERNIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
FAIRBURY IN ILLINOIS TO HEBRON IN INDIANA. ALTHOUGH STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE...GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING MAY
ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THERE IS AN INCREASED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE INDIANA
SHORE ON SUNDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY
FOR LOCATIONS NEAR THE WISCONSIN BORDER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NECESSARY THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

COMPLETE FORECAST INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE NWS CHICAGO
WEBPAGE: WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO

LMZ740>745-060500-
WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR-
WILMETTE HARBOR TO NORTHERLY ISLAND-
NORTHERLY ISLAND TO CALUMET HARBOR-CALUMET HARBOR TO GARY-
GARY TO BURNS HARBOR-BURNS HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY-
1156 PM CDT SAT AUG 4 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE ILLINOIS NEARSHORE
WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...OVERNIGHT.

WINDS AND WAVES WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT
FROM GARY TO MICHIGAN CITY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

WINDS AND WAVES WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT
FROM GARY TO MICHIGAN CITY FROM EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THOUGH SUNDAY
EVENING.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY.

&&

COMPLETE FORECAST INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE NWS CHICAGO
WEBPAGE: WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO

LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-
870-872-874-876-878-060500-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM MICHIGAN CITY IN TO ST. JOSEPH MI 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SEUL CHOIX POINT TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SEUL CHOIX POINT TO THE
MACKINAC BRIDGE AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM CHARLEVOIX MI TO SOUTH
FOX ISLAND 5 NM OFFSHORE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM CHARLEVOIX TO POINT BETSIE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM POINT BETSIE TO MANISTEE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM TWO RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI 5 NM OFFSHORE
TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR IL 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WILMETTE HARBOR IL TO MICHIGAN CITY IN 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ST. JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
1156 PM CDT SAT AUG 4 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...OVERNIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FOR THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE LAKE TUESDAY...AND AGAIN THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

COMPLETE FORECAST INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE NWS CHICAGO
WEBPAGE: WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO

RODRIGUEZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
152 AM CDT SUN AUG 5 2012

ILZ032-033-039-050715-
FORD IL-IROQUOIS IL-LIVINGSTON IL-
152 AM CDT SUN AUG 5 2012

AT 146 AM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES NORTH OF GIBSON
CITY TO 15 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GIBSON CITY...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

WINDS TO 50 MPH...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

CITIES AND TOWNS AFFECTED...MELVIN...AND ELLIOTT AROUND 205 AM...
ROBERTS AROUND 210 AM...PAXTON...LODA AND BUCKLEY AROUND 215 AM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL BRANCHES TO BE BLOWN DOWN...AND LOOSE
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO STANDING WATER
ON ROADWAYS AND POOR VISIBILITY. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE
UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

&&

LAT...LON 4040 8847 4061 8846 4062 8852 4064 8851
      4064 8787 4040 8796 4040 8846
TIME...MOT...LOC 0652Z 278DEG 30KT 4061 8837 4028 8848

IZZI

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