Severe Thunderstorm Warning 40, NWS Chicago, IL

160 
WWUS53 KLOT 170030
SVSLOT

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
730 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012

ILC063-091-105-197-INC089-111-170115-
/O.CON.KLOT.SV.W.0040.000000T0000Z-120617T0115Z/
KANKAKEE IL-LIVINGSTON IL-WILL IL-GRUNDY IL-NEWTON IN-LAKE IN-
730 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN
LAKE...NORTHWESTERN NEWTON...SOUTHEASTERN GRUNDY...SOUTHERN WILL...
NORTHEASTERN LIVINGSTON AND KANKAKEE COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM CDT...

AT 723 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM ESSEX TO BRACEVILLE...MOVING 
NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  WILMINGTON...MANTENO...LOWELL...PEOTONE...CEDAR LAKE...DIAMOND...
  BRAIDWOOD...LAKEWOOD SHORES...GRANT PARK...LAKE DALECARLIA...
  BEECHER...MONEE...CRETE...SCHNEIDER AND SYMERTON.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...LARGE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR
PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME
OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO
AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR. FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS.

&&

LAT...LON 4106 8745 4104 8843 4130 8839 4147 8754
      4131 8729
TIME...MOT...LOC 0028Z 245DEG 9KT 4117 8744 4118 8819
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

$$

BMD

350 
WWUS53 KLOT 170049
SVSLOT

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
749 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012

ILC063-091-105-197-INC089-111-170115-
/O.CON.KLOT.SV.W.0040.000000T0000Z-120617T0115Z/
KANKAKEE IL-LIVINGSTON IL-WILL IL-GRUNDY IL-NEWTON IN-LAKE IN-
749 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN
LAKE...NORTHWESTERN NEWTON...SOUTHEASTERN GRUNDY...SOUTHERN WILL...
NORTHEASTERN LIVINGSTON AND KANKAKEE COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM CDT...

AT 747 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM THAYER TO LAKEWOOD SHORES...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  WILMINGTON...MANTENO...LOWELL...PEOTONE...CEDAR LAKE...LAKEWOOD
  SHORES...GRANT PARK...LAKE DALECARLIA...BEECHER...MONEE...CRETE AND
  SYMERTON.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...LARGE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR
PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME
OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO
AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR. FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS.

&&

LAT...LON 4106 8745 4104 8843 4130 8839 4147 8754
      4131 8729
TIME...MOT...LOC 0049Z 245DEG 9KT 4119 8738 4120 8813
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

$$

BMD

872 
WWUS53 KLOT 170100
SVSLOT

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
800 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012

ILC063-105-170109-
/O.CAN.KLOT.SV.W.0040.000000T0000Z-120617T0115Z/
LIVINGSTON IL-GRUNDY IL-
800 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012


...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN GRUNDY AND
NORTHEASTERN LIVINGSTON COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE 
WARNED AREA.

LAT...LON 4106 8745 4105 8819 4135 8815 4147 8754
      4131 8729
TIME...MOT...LOC 0059Z 245DEG 9KT 4121 8740 4121 8806

$$

ILC091-197-INC089-111-170115-
/O.CON.KLOT.SV.W.0040.000000T0000Z-120617T0115Z/
KANKAKEE IL-WILL IL-NEWTON IN-LAKE IN-
800 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN
LAKE...NORTHWESTERN NEWTON...SOUTHERN WILL AND KANKAKEE COUNTIES
UNTIL 815 PM CDT...

AT 756 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM THAYER TO 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
LAKEWOOD SHORES...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MANTENO...LOWELL...PEOTONE...CEDAR LAKE...GRANT PARK...LAKE
  DALECARLIA...BEECHER...MONEE...CRETE AND SYMERTON.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...LARGE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR
PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME
OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO
AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR. FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS.

&&

LAT...LON 4106 8745 4105 8819 4135 8815 4147 8754
      4131 8729
TIME...MOT...LOC 0059Z 245DEG 9KT 4121 8740 4121 8806
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

$$

BMD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
702 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
700 PM CDT

CLUSTER ACROSS THE IA/MO/IL CORRIDOR CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS IT
MOVES INTO AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS...AND THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
FOCUS AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. CLUSTER CONTINUES TO CONGEAL AND FORM
A BOWING SEGMENT. THOUGH CONDITIONS HAVE DECREASED OVER THE LAST
20-30 MINUTES ALONG THE LEADING EDGE...IT MAY BE TEMPORARY AS THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE COMPLEX. WITH THE CONCERN
OF THE SEVERE POTENTIAL...COORDINATED WITH SPC AND ISSUED A WATCH
COVERING THE CWA. THE NEXT AND LATEST THREAT COVERS WHAT LOOKS
LIKE A WARM ADVECTION STYLE WING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT
HAVE FORMED ALONG A CONFLUENT WIND AXIS SOUTH OF I-80. HIGH PWATS
WILL LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL...AND UPWIND PROPAGATION VECTORS ARE
LESS THAN 10 KT ... IN SORT OF A CORFIDI VECTOR RIDGE ACROSS THAT
GENERAL AREA AND SOME MERGING AND TRAINING MAY CONTINUE WITH THESE
STORMS. WHILE THE REGION REMAINS IN DROUGHT...AND THE RAIN IS
NEEDED...RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER THAN WHAT THE GROUND CAN
HANDLE AT ONCE...AND THAT COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH
1-2 INCH AN HOUR RAINFALL RATES EXPECTED. ONE CONCERN WITH ONGOING
CONVECTION ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR IS HOW THAT WILL IMPACT THE
ATMOSPHERE...AND WHETHER IT WILL COOL AND MODIFY THE ATMOSPHERE
THAT THE MCS WILL ENCOUNTER. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE
ON THE LATEST TRENDS.

SHEA

.PREVIOUS MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
458 PM CDT

TWO MAIN FOCUS AREAS THIS AFTERNOON FOR STORMS. STORMS ACROSS
INDIANA ARE HELPING TO OCCASIONALLY HIT SEVERE CRITERIA ON THE NOSE
OF RAP/RUC ANALYZED H7 SPEED MAX AND NOSE OF A THETA E TONGUE. AT
THE SURFACE...DESTABILIZATION HAS ALREADY TAKEN PLACE. DEWPOINTS
IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S SUPPORT SURFACE BASED CAPE OF
1000-1500 J/KG AVAILABLE TO BE REALIZED. A FEW OF THE STORMS HAVE
BEEN ABLE TO REACH SEVERE CRITERIA...ALLOWING GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL
TO FALL. THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS.

THE SECOND FOCUS IS TIED TO THE MCV/SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN IOWA AND SHIFTING EAST. MAIN INSTABILITY AXIS SEEMS TO BE
LINED UP DIRECTLY TO THE EAST OF THIS FEATURE AND ACROSS CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR CAPE VALUES OF UP TO 3000 J/KG ARE
PRESENT WITHIN AND THE ATMOSPHERE IS BASICALLY UNTAPPED. CLOUD
TOPS CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY COOL WITH THESE STORMS AND THE FORMATION
OF A COLD POOL MAY BE UNDERWAY. THE EARLIER RAP/RUC HAD BEEN
UNDER DOING LOWER LEVEL WINDS WHEN COMPARED TO PROFILER AND 88D VAD
PROFILES...BUT THE LATEST RUNS SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
CURRENT SITUATION. ALL GUIDANCE INCREASES THE LOWER LEVEL WINDS
EARLY THIS EVENING AND THIS MAY HELP TO CONVECTION TO FORM INTO A
BOWING SEGMENT AIDED BY A MODERATE REAR INFLOW JET. THERE IS NO
REASON FOR THE ACTIVITY WILL WANE BEFORE IT MOVES EAST AND INTO THE
CWA THIS EVENING...BUT WILL BE MORE OF A WAIT AND SEE TO TELL IF
ANY ORGANIZATION WITH THE COLD POOL INCREASES...OF IF THE STORMS
REMAIN MORE OF THE MULTICELLULAR CLUSTER THAT IS PRESENTLY BEING
NOTED. INCREDIBLY HIGH PWATS /RANGING FROM 1.7 TO ROUGHLY 1.9
INCHES/ WILL ALSO SUPPORT THE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING THREAT. SHEA

.DISCUSSION...
330 PM CDT

A FEW AREAS OF CONCERN OVER THE COMING DAYS. THE FIRST WILL BE THE
POTENTIALLY SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY VERY HOT
WEATHER OPENING UP THE WORK WEEK. FOLLOWING THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL NOT
BE UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK.

IN THE SHORT TERM...GOING THREAT FOR MORE OF AN EXPANDED
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE.
SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT WELL TO THE WEST AND ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
TIED TO A LOW LIFTING ACROSS CANADA IS SLOWLY SHIFTING TO THE
EAST. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION
TONIGHT...BUT WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY BY THE TIME IT REACHES EASTERN
IOWA TONIGHT.

FOR THE IMMEDIATE AFTERNOON...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW HAS ALLOWED A
RATHER LARGE SURGE OF MOISTURE TO BE TRANSPORTED ACROSS THE REGION.
OUTSIDE OF AREAS THAT SAW RAIN THIS MORNING...DEWPOINTS HAVE JUMPED
FROM AROUND 50 DEGREES TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS NOT INDICATING MUCH DRY AIR TO IMPEDE THE CLIMB...AND
HAVE NUDGED DEWPOINTS UP ACROSS THE AREA. THE HIGHEST AXIS OF
INSTABILITY IS GENERALLY ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
AREA...AND CLOSER TO THE IOWA/ILLINOIS/MISSOURI JUNCTION...BUT
MUCAPE VALUES IN THE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE ARE STILL LIKELY
ACROSS THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND UP TO THE WI BORDER. OVERALL
SHEAR IS LOW...AND TIED CLOSER TO THE WAVE LIFTING ACROSS
WISCONSIN. GENERALLY EXPECTING THE SMALL...BUT EFFICIENT RAIN
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDER TO CONTINUE TO BUBBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE GREATEST CHANCES THROUGH AFTERNOON DO APPEAR TO BE EAST OF THE
I57 CORRIDOR...AND WEST OF I39.

THE PRIMARY FOCUS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING WILL BE
TIED TO A STRONG WAVE THAT IS SLIDING ACROSS THE MISSOURI AND IOWA
BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. PRESENTLY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS
ARE INCREASING IN OVERALL COVERAGE WITH AND AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. THE
HIGHEST INSTABILITY AXIS IS WEST AND ACROSS THE MO/IA/IL BORDER
REGION...WITH RAP ANALYZED VALUES NEARING THE 3-4000 MARK. SHEAR
WILL INCREASE AS THE WAVE APPROACHES...AND THE CLUSTER OF STORMS
WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS THEY SHIFT EAST...AND INTO A
SUPPORTIVE ENVIRONMENT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND MORNING RAOBS
SHOW A CONSIDERABLE INCREASE OF MOISTURE...WITH PWAT VALUES
JUMPING 2/3 TO 3/4 OF AN INCH ABOVE THEIR MORNING VALUES /AND
PEAKING AROUND THE 1.9 INCH RANGE. AS WAS SEEN EARLIER IN THE
DAY...IT DOES NOT TAKE MUCH FOR THESE STORMS TO PUT OUT A LOT OF
PRECIPITATION. THE LATEST HRRR HAS BEEN A DECENT PROXY FOR
COVERAGE AND TIMING...AND ANTICIPATE COVERAGE TO INCREASE FOR
ROCKFORD BEYOND THE 6P HOUR AND A FEW HOURS BEYOND FOR CHICAGO.
HEAVY RAIN IS THE BIGGEST THREAT WITH THESE STORMS...BUT SOME
POCKETS MAY CONTAIN SUB TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE...THOUGH DIURNALLY BY THE TIME THEY REACH THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA...IT WILL BE GETTING INTO AN UNFAVORABLE TIME.
THE RAIN WILL BE WELCOME FOR MANY AREAS...BUT OVERALL DROUGHT
BUSTING ONES ARE NOT A LIKELIHOOD.

LONG TERM...THE JET ENGINE WILL TURN ON. THE COLD FRONT THAT IS
MARCHING EAST ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY WILL BASICALLY
WASH OUT AND ONLY DROP DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE LOWER 60S TO UPPER
50S...AND KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S TOMORROW. BIG H8
THERMAL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST FROM THE PLAINS AND CLOSE TO
THE REGION...WARMING THE AREA BACK UP MONDAY. ENDED UP BUMPING UP HIGHS
FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY TO BE INTO THE UPPER 90 RANGE /AND CAN
SEE A POSSIBLE 100 MARK SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION/ IN THAT TIME.
NOT ONLY WILL IT BE HOT ON MONDAY...IT WILL BE INCREDIBLY WINDY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXED LAYER WINDS BREACHING THE 30KT
RANGE. THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE
ELEVATED...BUT SPECIFICS WILL BE FOLLOWED UP IN THE FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE 90S WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY AND COOLS OFF
THE AREA WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.

SHEA

&&

.DISCUSSION...
330 PM CDT

A FEW AREAS OF CONCERN OVER THE COMING DAYS. THE FIRST WILL BE THE
POTENTIALLY SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY VERY HOT
WEATHER OPENING UP THE WORK WEEK. FOLLOWING THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL NOT
BE UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK.

IN THE SHORT TERM...GOING THREAT FOR MORE OF AN EXPANDED
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE.
SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT WELL TO THE WEST AND ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
TIED TO A LOW LIFTING ACROSS CANADA IS SLOWLY SHIFTING TO THE
EAST. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION
TONIGHT...BUT WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY BY THE TIME IT REACHES EASTERN
IOWA TONIGHT.

FOR THE IMMEDIATE AFTERNOON...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW HAS ALLOWED A
RATHER LARGE SURGE OF MOISTURE TO BE TRANSPORTED ACROSS THE REGION.
OUTSIDE OF AREAS THAT SAW RAIN THIS MORNING...DEWPOINTS HAVE JUMPED
FROM AROUND 50 DEGREES TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS NOT INDICATING MUCH DRY AIR TO IMPEDE THE CLIMB...AND
HAVE NUDGED DEWPOINTS UP ACROSS THE AREA. THE HIGHEST AXIS OF
INSTABILITY IS GENERALLY ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
AREA...AND CLOSER TO THE IOWA/ILLINOIS/MISSOURI JUNCTION...BUT
MUCAPE VALUES IN THE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE ARE STILL LIKELY
ACROSS THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND UP TO THE WI BORDER. OVERALL
SHEAR IS LOW...AND TIED CLOSER TO THE WAVE LIFTING ACROSS
WISCONSIN. GENERALLY EXPECTING THE SMALL...BUT EFFICIENT RAIN
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDER TO CONTINUE TO BUBBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE GREATEST CHANCES THROUGH AFTERNOON DO APPEAR TO BE EAST OF THE
I57 CORRIDOR...AND WEST OF I39.

THE PRIMARY FOCUS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING WILL BE
TIED TO A STRONG WAVE THAT IS SLIDING ACROSS THE MISSOURI AND IOWA
BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. PRESENTLY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS
ARE INCREASING IN OVERALL COVERAGE WITH AND AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. THE
HIGHEST INSTABILITY AXIS IS WEST AND ACROSS THE MO/IA/IL BORDER
REGION...WITH RAP ANALYZED VALUES NEARING THE 3-4000 MARK. SHEAR
WILL INCREASE AS THE WAVE APPROACHES...AND THE CLUSTER OF STORMS
WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS THEY SHIFT EAST...AND INTO A
SUPPORTIVE ENVIRONMENT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND MORNING RAOBS
SHOW A CONSIDERABLE INCREASE OF MOISTURE...WITH PWAT VALUES
JUMPING 2/3 TO 3/4 OF AN INCH ABOVE THEIR MORNING VALUES /AND
PEAKING AROUND THE 1.9 INCH RANGE. AS WAS SEEN EARLIER IN THE
DAY...IT DOES NOT TAKE MUCH FOR THESE STORMS TO PUT OUT A LOT OF
PRECIPITATION. THE LATEST HRRR HAS BEEN A DECENT PROXY FOR
COVERAGE AND TIMING...AND ANTICIPATE COVERAGE TO INCREASE FOR
ROCKFORD BEYOND THE 6P HOUR AND A FEW HOURS BEYOND FOR CHICAGO.
HEAVY RAIN IS THE BIGGEST THREAT WITH THESE STORMS...BUT SOME
POCKETS MAY CONTAIN SUB TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE...THOUGH DIURNALLY BY THE TIME THEY REACH THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA...IT WILL BE GETTING INTO AN UNFAVORABLE TIME.
THE RAIN WILL BE WELCOME FOR MANY AREAS...BUT OVERALL DROUGHT
BUSTING ONES ARE NOT A LIKELIHOOD.

LONG TERM...THE JET ENGINE WILL TURN ON. THE COLD FRONT THAT IS
MARCHING EAST ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY WILL BASICALLY
WASH OUT AND ONLY DROP DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE LOWER 60S TO UPPER
50S...AND KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S TOMORROW. BIG H8
THERMAL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST FROM THE PLAINS AND CLOSE TO
THE REGION...WARMING THE AREA BACK UP MONDAY. ENDED UP BUMPING UP HIGHS
FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY TO BE INTO THE UPPER 90 RANGE /AND CAN
SEE A POSSIBLE 100 MARK SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION/ IN THAT TIME.
NOT ONLY WILL IT BE HOT ON MONDAY...IT WILL BE INCREDIBLY WINDY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXED LAYER WINDS BREACHING THE 30KT
RANGE. THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE
ELEVATED...BUT SPECIFICS WILL BE FOLLOWED UP IN THE FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE 90S WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY AND COOLS OFF
THE AREA WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.

SHEA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
515 PM CDT

HOT AND WINDY CONDITIONS MAY RESULT IN CRITICAL AND DANGEROUS
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON MONDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...INCREASING
DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE AREA WILL LIMIT MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES TO 35 TO 40 PERCENT AS TEMPERATURES TOP OUT IN THE LOWER
90S. WINDS WILL OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH...GUSTING
TO AROUND 20 MPH.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING WETTING RAIN TO
SOME LOCATIONS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING WHICH MAY
BRING SOME ADDITIONAL WETTING RAIN...AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY
EVEN BRING SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

WHILE RED FLAG CRITERIA WILL NOT BE REACHED TODAY...THE RECENT
VERY DRY CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES...MODESTLY
LOW DEW POINTS AND MODERATELY STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED
WILDFIRE DANGER.

A WEAK...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR...WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID AND UPPER 80S.

MUCH WARMER AIR WILL RETURN MONDAY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AS
HIGH AS 40 MPH. SOME QUESTION REMAINS AS TO HOW LOW DEWPOINTS MAY
MAY DROP MONDAY AFTERNOON IF DRIER AIR ALOFT MIXES DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. CURRENTLY...EXPECT THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
MIDDLE 90S. EVEN DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S WILL CAUSE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES TO DROP CLOSE TO 30 PERCENT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S WILL BRING RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS
IN RED FLAG CRITERIA RANGE.

ANOTHER WILD CARD IS HOW RAINFALL OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON AND HOW
MUCH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THAT MAY OCCUR LATER THIS EVENING WILL
AFFECT FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS AS WELL AS SOIL MOISTURE LEVELS. THE
GREATER THE AMOUNT OF WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT...
THE MORE LIKELY THAT RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE ABOVE RED
FLAG CRITERIA.

HOWEVER...EVEN IF RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE ABOVE RED FLAG
CRITERIA...THE EXPECTED TEMPERATURE AND WIND CONDITIONS COMBINED
WITH THE RECENT DRY CONDITIONS WILL ELEVATE THE FIRE DANGER...
ESPECIALLY FOR ANY AREAS THAT DO NOT RECEIVE MUCH WETTING RAINFALL
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS FUEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN QUITE LOW.

WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE LOWER AND
MID 90S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO
SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE...PREVENTING MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES FROM DROPPING TO CRITICAL LEVELS.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY...BRINGING
ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SOMEWHAT LOWER THURSDAY...AND SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

KREIN

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 00Z...

* TSRA THIS EVENING

IZZI

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...

TSRA DEVELOPING IN THE VC OF I-80 SHOULD CONTINUE TO FILL IN ALONG
EAST-WEST LINE WITH THIS LINE LIKELY TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD
TOWARD CHGO METRO TERMINALS THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL NORTH-SOUTH
LINE OF TSRA OVER WESTERN ILLINOIS LIKELY TO CONTINUE EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND LIKELY REACH TERMINALS JUST AFTER 0300Z AT
CHGO AND A BIT EARLIER AT RFD. IN THE WAKE OF THE TSRA LOOK FOR
WINDS TO VRB FOR A WHILE BEFORE LOCKING IN MORE W/NW LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT WINDS SHOULD BE STRONG
ENOUGH SUNDAY TO PREVENT LAKE BREEZE FROM MAKING IT INTO ORD/MDW.

IZZI

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 00Z...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON TSRA TIMING/INTENSITY THIS EVENING
* HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL OTHER ELEMENTS

IZZI

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

MONDAY...VFR. SSW WINDS G35KT. VERY HOT/HIGH DENSITY ALTITUDE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VFR. VERY HOT/HIGH DENSITY ALTITUDE.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...CHC TSRA...OTHERWISE VFR.

IZZI

&&

.MARINE...
156 PM CDT

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES WILL
PRODUCE SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS INTO NEXT WEEK...EACH OF THESE
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE PLAINS ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO ONTARIO. THESE SYSTEMS WILL PRODUCE
PERIODS OF STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE LAKE. HOWEVER...THE MAIN
CONCERNS ACROSS THE LAKE WILL BE ON MONDAY AS A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT SETS UP. THIS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A PERIOD OF 30 KT
SOUTHERLY WINDS ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS ALSO A
POTENTIAL FOR SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
ILLINOIS AND INDIANA NEAR SHORES. STRONG GUSTS UP AROUND 35 KT ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE LAND AREAS OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS...AND DUE TO
THE EXPECTED OFFSHORE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...THESE WIND GUSTS
COULD EASILY AFFECT THE NEAR SHORE WATERS.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE AROUND 15 TO 25 KT
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS WE REMAIN TO THE EAST OF LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST.

KJB

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
     UNTIL 10 PM SATURDAY.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
526 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012

ILZ003>006-008-010>014-019>023-032-033-039-INZ001-002-010-011-019-
172230-
WINNEBAGO-BOONE-MCHENRY-LAKE ILLINOIS-OGLE-LEE-DE KALB-KANE-
DUPAGE-COOK-LA SALLE-KENDALL-GRUNDY-WILL-KANKAKEE-LIVINGSTON-
IROQUOIS-FORD-LAKE INDIANA-PORTER-NEWTON-JASPER-BENTON-
526 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012 /626 PM EDT SAT JUN 16 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WHICH MAY PRODUCE
   CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
   TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING
   HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS
   WINDS GREATER THAN 60 MPH

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

  EAST OF INTERSTATE 57 THIS AFTERNOON. THEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE
  OUTLOOK AREA THIS EVENING.

  DISCUSSION:

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS AS A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE IOWA AND
MISSOURI BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. CLUSTERS OF STORMS WILL INCREASE
IN COVERAGE AS THEY CROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND MOVE INTO A
HIGHLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING THAT CAN ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS...ANOTHER
THREAT WILL BE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. DESPITE BEING IN DROUGHT
ACROSS THE AREA...RAIN MAY FALL AT A HIGH ENOUGH RATE THAT THE GROUND
WILL NOT BE ABLE ABSORB IT QUICK ENOUGH...AND FLASH FLOODING MAY BE
POSSIBLE. TO THESE STORMS WILL THEN MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT
AND QUICKLY END FROM WEST TO EAST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY MAINLY SOUTH OF A
VALPARAISO TO KANKAKEE TO PONTIAC LINE. THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS MAY CREATE CRITICAL
FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

&&

COMPLETE FORECAST INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE NWS CHICAGO
WEBPAGE: WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO

LMZ740>745-172230-
WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR-
WILMETTE HARBOR TO NORTHERLY ISLAND-
NORTHERLY ISLAND TO CALUMET HARBOR-CALUMET HARBOR TO GARY-
GARY TO BURNS HARBOR-BURNS HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY-
526 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE ILLINOIS NEARSHORE
WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY...MAINLY DURING THE
FIRST PART OF THE MORNING. THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL
CRAFT DURING MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

COMPLETE FORECAST INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE NWS CHICAGO
WEBPAGE: WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO

LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-
870-872-874-876-878-172230-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM MICHIGAN CITY IN TO ST. JOSEPH MI 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SEUL CHOIX POINT TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SEUL CHOIX POINT TO THE
MACKINAC BRIDGE AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM CHARLEVOIX MI TO SOUTH
FOX ISLAND 5 NM OFFSHORE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM CHARLEVOIX TO POINT BETSIE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM POINT BETSIE TO MANISTEE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM TWO RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI 5 NM OFFSHORE
TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR IL 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WILMETTE HARBOR IL TO MICHIGAN CITY IN 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ST. JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
526 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THERE THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND MUCH OF THE LAKE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

COMPLETE FORECAST INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE NWS CHICAGO
WEBPAGE: WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO

SHEA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
646 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0644 PM     HAIL             3 S KANKAKEE            41.07N 87.86W
06/16/2012  M0.75 INCH       KANKAKEE           IL   PUBLIC

            AT KANKAKEE COUNTY FAIRGROUNDS

&&

ACS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
651 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0644 PM     HAIL             COAL CITY               41.29N 88.28W
06/16/2012  M0.25 INCH       GRUNDY             IL   AMATEUR RADIO

            INTERSECTION OF BROADWAY AND THE RAILROAD TRACKS

&&

ACS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
654 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0652 PM     HAIL             BRAIDWOOD               41.27N 88.22W
06/16/2012  E0.75 INCH       WILL               IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            GUSTY WINDS AS WELL

&&

ACS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
700 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0652 PM     HAIL             BRAIDWOOD               41.27N 88.22W
06/16/2012  E0.75 INCH       WILL               IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ROOF SHINGS BLOWN OFF HOUSE AS WELL.

&&

ACS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
701 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0652 PM     HAIL             BRAIDWOOD               41.27N 88.22W
06/16/2012  E0.75 INCH       WILL               IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ROOF SHINGLES BLOWN OFF HOUSE AS WELL.

&&

ACS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
714 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0712 PM     HAIL             3 W KANKAKEE            41.12N 87.92W
06/16/2012  E0.50 INCH       KANKAKEE           IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ALSO BLEW LAWN FURNITURE

&&

ACS