Special Weather Statement, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1241 PM EST MON DEC 17 2012

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 1230 PM EST Sun Dec 16 2012

A severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for all of our region.
Numerous thunderstorms will continue through 3 pm along the Ohio
River and will develop by early afternoon across central Kentucky.

Marginally severe hail around quarter size is the main threat.
However, an isolated severe wind gust is possible as well.
These thunderstorms will continue through mid afternoon across
southern Indiana, with storms lingering into the evening hours
across south central Kentucky and the Bluegrass Region.

&&

.Short Term (Today through Tuesday)...
Issued at 255 AM EST Mon Dec 17 2012

An upper level trough and associated surface low are still on track
to cross the area today. This will bring a couple of rounds of
showers today as well as the chance for thunderstorms.

Scattered showers are ongoing across the forecast area this morning.
A few strikes of lightning have been observed as well. Showers will
continue to increase this morning, especially across south central
and east central Kentucky. The models show an area of showers
developing across western KY/TN becoming more widespread over the
next few hours and tracking to the northeast. The radar shows this
area has begun to develop over the last hour. Will therefore carry
likely pops over south and east central KY this morning, with
scattered
showers elsewhere.

After the initial wave of rain moves out, we will likely see a
relative minimum in precipitation during the middle of the day.
Temperatures are expected to warm into the lower to possibly mid
60s. As the upper level trough nears, another area of rain will
develop across west central Kentucky. Soundings indicate that
surface based instability may develop this afternoon as the surface
temperatures rise and heights fall aloft. This would be especially
likely south of the Ohio River. Given instability and cold temps
aloft we may see some thunderstorms with hail developing this
afternoon.

This system will pull off to the northeast tonight and rains will
end. For tomorrow high pressure will nose in from the south bringing
a dry day with clearing skies.

Temperatures will cool off tonight and tomorrow. Lows tonight will
drop into the mid 30s to lower 40s. Highs tomorrow will be in the
lower to mid 50s.

.Long Term (Tuesday night through Sunday)...
Issued at 310 AM EST Mon Dec 17 2012

Dry weather continues through Wednesday as the surface ridge axis
retreats to the mid-Atlantic coast, giving way to southerly return
flow. Temps will be well above normal, with many locations punching
into the 60s on Wednesday afternoon.

All eyes are on Wednesday night and Thursday as a very sharp but
progressive upper trough moves from the Rockies to the Great Lakes.
The surface low will deepen quite rapidly as it moves across
Illinois into either Indiana or Michigan, depending which model we
believe. GFS is the most progressive, but ECMWF is the farthest
south. NAM through 12Z Thursday is slower and farther north than
either the GFS or ECMWF. Either way, the Ohio Valley is in for a
decent rain event under a very dynamic low-level jet. QPF will be
limited by how progressive the system is, averaging a half to 3/4 of
an inch, with most of it coming in a 6-hr span. SVR potential is
limited by the lack of surface-based instability, but there will be
enough elevated CAPE to support at least some embedded thunder.
Convective probabilities go up with the slower solutions, but it is
worth noting that the trend is faster from one run to the next. This
forecast splits the difference between GFS and ECMWF.

Temps are quite tricky due to this timing. Have gone above guidance
for Wednesday night, given cool bias of models in the pre-frontal
regime, as well as the expectation for steady or rising temps after
midnight. Minimal rise on Thursday, but still above GFS guidance
before temps drop off the table in the afternoon. If the trend
should start to favor the slower ECMWF or even the NAM solution, we
could crack 60 before fropa, especially east of I-65.

Lingering precip on Thursday night will be in the form of snow
showers, but at this time no accumulation is expected. Could see
this changeover late Thursday afternoon if a faster solution should
win out.

Thermal trof is very progressive and will already be lifting out on
Friday. Still looks like we will be below normal on NW winds on
Friday, but any Lake Michigan plume should stay off to our north and
east. Temps recover to near normal for the remainder of the weekend
as high pressure settles into the Deep South.

&&

.Aviation (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 0025 AM EST Mon Dec 18 2012

Numerous fast moving thunderstorms have developed and will affect
the SDF airport in the 18 to 21z time frame. Numerous thunderstorms
will also affect LEX around 19 through 23z...and BWG from around 19
through 23Z.  Frequent lightning...small hail and gust winds will
accompany any thunderstorms.

Other than thunderstorms, winds will be from 5 to 10kt from the
southwest. Variable broken MVFR ceilings may be expected outside of
any thunderstorms. Overnight, MVFR ceilings are expected with
thunderstorms exiting after around 03z. Winds will switch to the
northwest this evening. Ceilings will rise and begin to scatter out
by 14z Tuesday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

Update...........JSD
Short Term.......EER
Long Term........RS
Aviation.........JSD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1244 PM EST MON DEC 17 2012

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-182045-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-CRAWFORD IN-
PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-BRECKINRIDGE KY-
MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-JEFFERSON KY-
OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-SCOTT KY-
HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-
NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-
LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-
EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-
WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-
ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...SALEM...SCOTTSBURG...MADISON...
JASPER...MARENGO...TELL CITY...CORYDON...NEW ALBANY...
JEFFERSONVILLE...HAWESVILLE...HARDINSBURG...BRANDENBURG...
BEAVER DAM...LEITCHFIELD...ELIZABETHTOWN...FORT KNOX...
MOUNT WASHINGTON...SHEPHERDSVILLE...LOUISVILLE...LA GRANGE...
BEDFORD...NEW CASTLE...SHELBYVILLE...FRANKFORT...GEORGETOWN...
CYNTHIANA...TAYLORSVILLE...LAWRENCEBURG...VERSAILLES...LEXINGTON...
PARIS...CARLISLE...BARDSTOWN...SPRINGFIELD...HARRODSBURG...
NICHOLASVILLE...WINCHESTER...HODGENVILLE...LEBANON...DANVILLE...
LANCASTER...RICHMOND...MORGANTOWN...BROWNSVILLE...MUNFORDVILLE...
GREENSBURG...CAMPBELLSVILLE...LIBERTY...STANFORD...RUSSELLVILLE...
BOWLING GREEN...FRANKLIN...SCOTTSVILLE...GLASGOW...TOMPKINSVILLE...
EDMONTON...COLUMBIA...JAMESTOWN...BURKESVILLE...ALBANY
1244 PM EST MON DEC 17 2012 /1144 AM CST MON DEC 17 2012/

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 683 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EST /7 PM CST/
THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. SOME
OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS. ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL PRODUCE
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

A VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST
EARLY THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. THESE STORMS WILL BRING LIGHTNING AS WELL
AS GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY INSTANCES OF HAIL OR
DAMAGING WINDS TODAY.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE.

BJS/RAS

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
245 PM EST MON DEC 17 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0244 PM     HAIL             HIGHVIEW                38.14N  85.64W
12/17/2012  M0.50 INCH       JEFFERSON          KY   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            AT NWS OFFICE

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1201111

CMC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
152 PM CST MON DEC 17 2012

KYZ028-029-038-045-046-053-054-063>065-073>077-081-172035-
ADAIR KY-ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-BULLITT KY-CUMBERLAND KY-GREEN KY-HARDIN
KY-HART KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-METCALFE KY-MONROE KY-NELSON KY-SPENCER
KY-TAYLOR KY-WASHINGTON KY-
152 PM CST MON DEC 17 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...HALF
INCH HAIL...AND 40 MPH WINDS...

AT 148 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES SOUTH OF
SHEPHERDSVILLE TO 12 MILES NORTHWEST OF GREENSBURG TO 8 MILES SOUTH
OF SCOTTSVILLE...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN REDUCING VISIBILITIES...HALF INCH
HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 35 TO 40 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITH
THESE STORMS.

* THESE STORMS WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  TOMPKINSVILLE...
  TAYLORSVILLE...
  SPRINGFIELD...
  LEBANON...
  HODGENVILLE...
  SAMUELS AND DEATSVILLE...
  COXS CREEK AND LENORE...
  SAINT FRANCIS AND WHITE ROSE...
  FAIRFIELD AND WILLOWTOWN...

THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT INTERSTATE 65 IN KENTUCKY BETWEEN MILE
MARKERS 105 AND 114.

THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT THE BLUEGRASS PARKWAY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS
10 AND 34.

THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT THE CUMBERLAND (NUNN) PARKWAY BETWEEN MILE
MARKERS 11 AND 27.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3663 8622 3737 8576 3795 8576 3804 8540
      3803 8516 3799 8517 3735 8521 3661 8569
TIME...MOT...LOC 1952Z 272DEG 28KT 3787 8562 3737 8564
          3665 8610

AMS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
305 PM EST MON DEC 17 2012

KYZ034-035-038>040-172135-
ANDERSON KY-FRANKLIN KY-SHELBY KY-SPENCER KY-WOODFORD KY-
305 PM EST MON DEC 17 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...HEAVY
RAIN...NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND 40 MPH WIND MOVING ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL KENTUCKY...

AT 302 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EASTWARD ALONG THE I-64 CORRIDOR.
THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS...GUSTY WINDS TO 35 TO 40
MPH...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND PEA TO MARBLE SIZED HAIL WHICH
MAY COVER THE GROUND AT TIMES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3835 8474 3819 8473 3817 8468 3818 8465
      3813 8463 3812 8465 3811 8463 3806 8465
      3803 8476 3802 8506 3804 8515 3804 8541
      3826 8541 3830 8546 3830 8534 3835 8528
      3833 8486
TIME...MOT...LOC 2004Z 251DEG 24KT 3822 8520

MJ