Special Weather Statement, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
332 PM EDT WED SEP 05 2012

.Short Term (Tonight through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 330 PM EDT Wed Sep 5 2012

A line of strong to severe thunderstorms continues to move southeast
across the area. These storms continue to propagate southeast, aided
by a shortwave and instability that has developed out ahead of the
convection. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is now in effect for the
whole area. The second watch is in effect until 03Z. However, storms
should be out of the area well before that time. Behind these
storms, rain showers will continue off and on tonight. However,
coverage should decrease overnight. Think that thunderstorms will be
fairly isolated overnight, if any are able to form.

A cold front will move through the area tomorrow. This front should
be about on the doorstep of the CWA by 12Z tomorrow. With daytime
heating, some storms will develop along the front. The best chance
for storms tomorrow will likely be in central Kentucky as the front
should be into this area by the time the atmosphere becomes unstable
in the afternoon. Though widespread severe weather is not expected
tomorrow, a few strong storms will be possible during the afternoon
hours. Gusty winds would be the main threat with any strong storms
that develop.

Temperatures will remain warm and muggy tonight and tomorrow. Lows
will drop only into the lower 70s tonight. For tomorrow, highs will
top out once again in the upper 80s to around 90. With the front
through the area tomorrow night, a bit cooler air will filter in.
Lows will be in the mid to upper 60s.

.Long Term (Friday - Wednesday)...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Wed Sep 5 2012

Not much has changed from the previous discussion for Friday through
Saturday as the models have a seemingly good grasp on the deep
trough and associated surface cold front that sweeps through the
Ohio Valley. Ensemble model data indicates anomalous 850mb temps
behind the front by at least 1 standard deviation. The dynamics
appear to be lining up for decent convection to fire up along a line
ahead of the frontal boundary, bringing plenty of rain chances
across the area. The timing of most of the precip appears to be
moving through early Saturday, thereby limiting the full potential
of convective instability, however, SPC has the local forecast area
in a 5% severe risk area. This is for good reason as 30 to 40 knots
of 0-6km shear will be on tap, an approximately 90 knot upper-level
jet will be screaming overhead, and WAA will have been in place for
enough time to ensure a moist, unstable atmosphere. As such, the
evolution of this system will need to be monitored for the full
local impacts to be realized.

After the fropa, a much more seasonable airmass will settle into
place as model consistency shows a strong ridge taking over the
region through the remainder of the forecast period. While high
temps will get into the upper 80s on Friday, highs over the weekend
will only reach the mid 70s. A slow warming trend will take place
through early next week, reaching the mid 80s by Wednesday.
Overnight lows will be much cooler as well, generally in the 50s
from Sunday morning onward.

&&

.Aviation (18Z TAF issuance)...
Issued at 100 PM EDT Wed Sep 5 2012

A line of storms that developed along an outflow boundary from
overnight convection continues to approach the area. The question is
how well this line of storms will hold together as it slowly sinks
into the area. SDF will likely see some thunderstorms in the
vicinity after 19Z or so as storms are beginning to pop up in front
of the main line. BWG and LEX are a bit more in question as the
storms may have a hard time maintaining their intensity as they move
east. Will leave out mention from these sites now, but monitor the
approaching storms.

Overnight skies will become partly cloudy, though high clouds will
likely remain in the area. With winds going calm once again at BWG,
light fog looks likely, so will mention this. Winds will pick up
tomorrow morning out of the west-southwest.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

Short Term.......EER
Long Term........LG
Aviation.........EER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
341 PM EDT WED SEP 5 2012

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-061945-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-
MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-
TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
341 PM EDT WED SEP 5 2012 /241 PM CDT WED SEP 5 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE
STRONGEST STORMS WILL CONTAIN DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY
SMALL HAIL. ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL HAVE DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS A
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL
CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO ERUPT IN FRONT OF A STOUT COLD
FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. INGREDIENTS APPEAR TO
BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME OF THESE STORMS TO BECOME STRONG WITH THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS BEING GUSTY WINDS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT ANY INSTANCES OF DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL THIS AFTERNOON TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE (ALL LOWER CASE).

EER/LG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
315 PM EDT WED SEP 5 2012

INZ076>078-084-089>092-KYZ024-025-051945-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-CLARK IN-CRAWFORD IN-FLOYD IN-HARRISON IN-MEADE
KY-ORANGE IN-PERRY IN-SCOTT IN-WASHINGTON IN-
315 PM EDT WED SEP 5 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...HALF
INCH HAIL...AND 50 MPH WINDS...

AT 214 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF
SALEM TO 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF CORYDON TO 13 MILES EAST OF TELL
CITY...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN REDUCING
VISIBILITIES...HALF INCH HAIL...AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 45
TO 50 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

* THESE STORMS WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  SCOTTSBURG...
  SALEM...
  CORYDON...
  PUMPKIN CENTER AND MANNING CROSSING...
  LITTLE YORK AND CEDAR FLAT...
  RHODELIA AND FRYMIRE...
  LEOTA AND RAYMOND...

THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT INTERSTATE 65 IN INDIANA BETWEEN MILE
MARKERS 22 AND 33.

THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT INTERSTATE 64 IN INDIANA BETWEEN MILE
MARKERS 105 AND 92.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS...AND AVOID USING THE
TELEPHONE UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY.

BE AWARE THAT A GUST FRONT PRECEDING THESE STORMS WILL GENERATE
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH WELL BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF ANY
RAIN.

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3882 8568 3874 8568 3873 8567 3830 8593
      3790 8629 3802 8679 3836 8641 3878 8617
      3877 8613 3879 8608 3877 8604 3877 8599
      3876 8598 3877 8595 3876 8590 3873 8588
      3881 8580 3883 8573
TIME...MOT...LOC 1914Z 274DEG 18KT 3864 8598 3832 8621
          3802 8651

MP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
232 PM CDT WED SEP 5 2012

KYZ023>027-052000-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-GRAYSON KY-HANCOCK KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-
232 PM CDT WED SEP 5 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...HALF
INCH HAIL...AND 50 MPH WINDS...

AT 232 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTH OF
HARDINSBURG TO 12 MILES EAST OF WHITESVILLE TO HARTFORD...AND MOVING
EAST AT 30 MPH.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN REDUCING
VISIBILITIES...HALF INCH HAIL...AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 45
TO 50 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

* THESE STORMS WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  HARTFORD...
  HARDINSBURG...
  BRANDENBURG...
  WEBSTER AND SANDEFUR CROSSING...
  BASIN SPRING AND IRVINGTON...
  BEWLEYVILLE AND GUSTON...
  TOUSEY AND HILLGROVE...

THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN KENTUCKY (FORD) PARKWAY BETWEEN
MILE MARKERS 75 AND 77.

THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT THE NATCHER PARKWAY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 41
AND 48.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE AWARE THAT A GUST FRONT PRECEDING THESE STORMS WILL GENERATE
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF ANY RAIN.

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3762 8697 3767 8683 3769 8685 3785 8666
      3785 8661 3793 8656 3792 8653 3794 8650
      3795 8652 3789 8629 3801 8618 3799 8607
      3796 8605 3798 8603 3797 8600 3761 8632
      3731 8685 3747 8713
TIME...MOT...LOC 1932Z 285DEG 25KT 3786 8640 3768 8661
          3749 8689

MP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
342 PM EDT WED SEP 5 2012

INZ091-092-KYZ030>032-052025-
CLARK IN-FLOYD IN-JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-
342 PM EDT WED SEP 5 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...HALF
INCH HAIL...AND 50 MPH WINDS...

AT 337 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
SCOTTSBURG TO 6 MILES WEST OF NEW ALBANY...AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN REDUCING
VISIBILITIES...HALF INCH HAIL...AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 45
TO 50 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

* THESE STORMS WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  ST. MATTHEWS...
  PROSPECT...
  LYNDON...
  ANCHORAGE...
  NEW ALBANY...
  SELLERSBURG AND SPEED...
  CLARK REGIONAL AIRPORT AND NEW MARKET...
  WATSON AND PRATHER...
  HARMONY VILLAGE AND ROLLING HILLS...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3859 8548 3859 8543 3860 8543 3858 8530
      3821 8555 3828 8599 3830 8601 3861 8577
      3861 8552
TIME...MOT...LOC 1942Z 284DEG 20KT 3861 8567 3828 8590

RS

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