Special Weather Statement, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
823 PM EDT THU AUG 16 2012

...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.Forecast Update...
Issued at 815 PM EDT Thu Aug 16 2012

Updated the Severe T-storm Watch 583 to expand it south and eastward
as the severe threat continues.  Much drier, stable air was noted
over east central KY so did not expand the watch that far east.  The
latest model data indicates storms will maintain themselves for the
next 2-4 hrs before weakening with the loss of instability.  The
best area for strong to severe storms through midnight may be across
western portions of south central KY in the new watch area where a
good bubble or moisture and instability still exist.  As storms move
much past the Louisville metro area, the environment becomes more
stable and we may see storms steadily decline after crossing the
Louisville metro and east.  The new watch is already out.  Updated
public products will be forth coming.

&&

.Short Term (Tonight through Friday night)...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Thu Aug 16 2012

Convection has fired up along and ahead of the vigorous cold front
currently draped from the Great Lakes region southwestward into
Missouri. Radar imagery depicted some pop-up showers and
thunderstorms attempting to develop north and west of the forecast
area border but as they approach southern Indiana and Kentucky,
storms have been disintegrating. SPC's Mesoscale Analysis page shows
a cap still in place along the Ohio River and the tongue of moisture
assisting in storm development is just now slowly advecting into the
area west of I-65. Therefore, timing for convection impacting
southern Indiana and north-central Kentucky looks on track similar
to previous forecasts. A narrow window of opportunity exists this
evening for storms to become strong and possibly severe but once the
sun sets and we lose daytime heating, the intensity dial on storms
will be turned back down. Additionally, as the current convection
continues to traverse southward, it is moving farther away from good
upper-level support. Showers with embedded thunder associated with
the fropa will continue to trek across central Kentucky in the
overnight hours. On Friday, another narrow window exists for showers
to redevelop into thunderstorms across the southeastern portions of
the forecast area in the afternoon hours. By tomorrow evening, the
precip should be moving out of central Kentucky completely, leaving
partly cloudy skies and cooler temperatures behind across the Ohio
Valley.

As already alluded to, temperatures will be noticeably cooler
tomorrow. Morning lows on Friday will start out in the 60s but
should only reach the upper 70s to low 80s by the peak of the day.
Once clouds clear out and radiational cooling takes over, overnight
lows Friday into Saturday morning will bottom out in the upper 50s
to lower 60s with much drier air in place.

.Long Term (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Thu Aug 16 2012

Look for a mean upper ridge over the Intermountain West, with a
broad trofiness from the Rockies to the East Coast throughout the
long-term forecast period. The most fall-like conditions will occur
this weekend as the closed upper low over Hudson Bay slowly lifts
out, and before the Canadian air mass at the surface has a chance to
modify. Look for dry conditions this weekend, as diurnal showers
under the cold pool aloft should remain to our north, while the
front and its associated moisture remain suppressed to the south.

NAM continues to run several degrees warmer than the GFS, especially
with max temps over the weekend. Believe that the shallow cool air
mass behind the front is handled better by the GFS in this case, so
the forecast is maybe a degree or two warmer than GFS MOS.

Pattern aloft will gradually flatten out early next week, with
continued dry conditions and temperatures gradually recovering to
near normal. Could see an upper-level disturbance sweep through the
Ohio Valley on Wednesday, but this system will be too
moisture-starved to trigger any precip.

&&

.Aviation (00Z TAF issuance)...
Issued at 755 PM EDT Thu Aug 16 2012

Most immediate TAF concern will be a line of storms pushing SSE
through the area this evening.  SDF is the most immediate threat
with a line of strong to potentially severe storms scheduled to hit
SDF between 815 and 845 pm EDT.  BWG will be a bit later between
1Z-4Z.  Not sure if the strong to severe storms will hold together
by the time they reach LEX, but timing should be between 2Z-6Z into
the LEX area.  After the initial strong to severe storms go through,
light to moderate rains with a rumble of thunder will dominate for
the rest of the overnight hours.  The wind shift with the fropa will
be more towards sunrise with winds gradually shifting to the NW
later in the day tomorrow.  Stay tuned for TAF amendments as storms
approach the TAF sites.  MVFR conditions and very gusty winds will
be possible in any storms.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

Update...........AMS
Short Term.......LG
Long Term........RAS
Aviation.........AMS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
925 PM EDT THU AUG 16 2012

INZ076-077-083-084-089>091-KYZ035>037-039>043-046>049-054>057-
064>067-076>078-081-082-180430-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-DUBOIS IN-CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-
FLOYD IN-FRANKLIN KY-SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-WASHINGTON KY-MERCER KY-
JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-
GREEN KY-TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-
RUSSELL KY-CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...SALEM...JASPER...MARENGO...
TELL CITY...CORYDON...NEW ALBANY...FRANKFORT...GEORGETOWN...
CYNTHIANA...LAWRENCEBURG...VERSAILLES...LEXINGTON...PARIS...
CARLISLE...SPRINGFIELD...HARRODSBURG...NICHOLASVILLE...WINCHESTER...
LEBANON...DANVILLE...LANCASTER...RICHMOND...GREENSBURG...
CAMPBELLSVILLE...LIBERTY...STANFORD...EDMONTON...COLUMBIA...
JAMESTOWN...BURKESVILLE...ALBANY
925 PM EDT THU AUG 16 2012 /825 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. A FEW STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY MAY BE
STRONG WITH A RISK OF SMALL HAIL AND LOCALIZED STRONG WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS AREAS ALONG
AND SOUTHEAST OF THE BLUEGRASS PARKWAY ON FRIDAY. CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING MAY ACCOMPANY ANY STORM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT STRONG WIND GUSTS...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND HAIL TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EITHER THROUGH
THE SPOTTER HOTLINE...FACEBOOK...TWITTER...OR E-SPOTTER.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE (ALL LOWER CASE).

INZ078-079-092-KYZ023>034-038-045-053-061>063-070>075-180430-
SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-
OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-
TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-SPENCER KY-NELSON KY-LARUE KY-
BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-ALLEN KY-
BARREN KY-MONROE KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SCOTTSBURG...MADISON...JEFFERSONVILLE...
HAWESVILLE...HARDINSBURG...BRANDENBURG...BEAVER DAM...LEITCHFIELD...
ELIZABETHTOWN...FORT KNOX...MOUNT WASHINGTON...SHEPHERDSVILLE...
LOUISVILLE...LA GRANGE...BEDFORD...NEW CASTLE...SHELBYVILLE...
TAYLORSVILLE...BARDSTOWN...HODGENVILLE...MORGANTOWN...BROWNSVILLE...
MUNFORDVILLE...RUSSELLVILLE...BOWLING GREEN...FRANKLIN...
SCOTTSVILLE...GLASGOW...TOMPKINSVILLE
925 PM EDT THU AUG 16 2012 /825 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2012/

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 583 IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT /11 PM
CDT/ TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT. SECONDARY THREATS WILL BE SMALL
HAIL...CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS AREAS ALONG
AND SOUTHEAST OF THE BLUEGRASS PARKWAY ON FRIDAY. CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING MAY ACCOMPANY ANY STORM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT STRONG WIND GUSTS...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND HAIL TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EITHER THROUGH
THE SPOTTER HOTLINE...FACEBOOK...TWITTER...OR E-SPOTTER.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE (ALL LOWER CASE).

RAS/LG/AMS

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