Special Weather Statement, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
331 PM EDT THU AUG 09 2012

.Short Term (Tonight through Friday Night)...
Issued at 331 PM EDT Thu Aug 9 2012

...Active Period of Weather Expected This Afternoon and Tonight...

Fairly active period of weather is shaping up for the Ohio Valley
this afternoon and tonight.  In the near term, mid-level shortwave
combined with surface temperatures hitting convective temperatures
has resulted in convection firing across the region.  Several areas
of convection are occurring across the area. The first is an
organizing line near the I-75 corridor in our eastern sections.
This is being forced by the aforementioned mid-level wave and by
diurnal heating.  This activity will continue to head east and into
WFO JKL's area over the next hour or so.  Further west, a well
defined residual outflow boundary was located along our border with
WFO IND.  This boundary extends from northern Dubois county NE to
Jefferson County.  Convection is firing along this boundary due to
strong moisture convergence and diurnal heating. This activity
should head east-southeast over the next few hours.   Finally
additional convection is firing also over west KY.  Based on the
latest runs of the LMK WRF and 4km HRRR runs, this activity should
also head east-southeast and may impact our far southwestern
counties later this afternoon.  Based on RUC proximity soundings,
this afternoon's convective activity is likely to remain in the
pulse variety with damaging winds, torrential rains and intense CG
lightning being the main threats.

Latest deterministic and ensemble model runs seem to be showing some
forecast convergence with the forecast for later this evening and
overnight.  First mid-level trough will scoot east this evening
while a secondary and more potent mid-level trough dropping down
into the Ohio Valley late tonight.  As this wave drops south,
surface cyclone near KSTL will shift northeast while associated
surface cold drags behind.  Strong mid-level height falls will
result in widespread synoptic scale lift across the region late
tonight.  This combined with forcing along the front should result
in a secondary line of convection developing to our northwest and
slide southeast overnight.  Despite this line moving through during
an instability minimum, the upper level dynamics appear to be strong
enough to support convection despite the meager instability.
Current thinking is that a convective line will generate along the
I-70 corridor and then drop southeast overnight.  The line will
likely be strong to possibly severe especially to our northwest.
However, as the line heads southeast, it is possible that line may
weaken a bit as it slides through KY.  Convection should be pushing
through southern Indiana in the 04-06Z time frame and then through
KY in the 06-11Z time frame.  Have gone ahead and bumped up PoPs for
the overnight period.  Lows will remain mild with temperatures
falling into the lower-mid 60s in the northwest and mid-upper 60s
elsewhere.

For Friday, the main forecast change here is that a lot more cloud
cover will be likely during the morning hours.  Latest model
time-height model cross sections show plenty of low-level moisture
lingering behind the frontal boundary as it pushes through.  Thus,
mostly cloudy skies seem very likely in the morning followed by
progressive clearing during the afternoon and into the evening
hours.  Highs tomorrow will be quite cool compared to what we've
seen over the last few months.  We should see readings in the upper
70s in the east with upper 70s to lower 80s in the central and
west.  Lows Friday night will be quite comfortable with lows in the
mid-upper 50s.

.Long Term (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Thu Aug 9 2012

...Mostly Sunny, Dry, and Cool Weekend Ahead...

A vertically stacked unseasonably far south and strong closed low
will begin to slowly fill over Lake Huron Saturday. This system will
slowly weaken and slowly lift north towards St. James Bay by late
Sunday. In its wake, it will leave residual troughing across the
western Great Lakes and the upper Midwest.

By early Saturday, the occluded front related to this upper low will
already have moved well east of the Commonwealth. Much drier and
cooler air originating in Canada, will have overspread the state by
dawn Saturday.

Expect mostly clear skies and relatively cool temperatures for the
upcoming weekend. Dewpoints will likely fall into the lower 50s by
Saturday afternoon. Highs will struggle to exceed 80 on Saturday
with highs on Sunday warming just a few degrees into the lower 80s.
Overnight lows early Sunday will quite likely reach into the upper
50s, with perhaps our urban areas remaining near 60.

A broad longwave trough will remain centered roughly over the Great
Lakes during the early portion of next week. This will ensure no
repeat of the excessively hot temperatures of early August anytime
soon. Both the latest GFS and the ECMWF show a disturbance sliding
southeast towards the base of this longwave trough Monday and
Tuesday. This system will approach the Commonwealth by late Monday.
At the surface, this system will likely aid in the formation of a
weak surface trough that may serve as a focus for convection
beginning late Monday, possibly continuing through the bulk of
Tuesday. Will introduce a chance of storms for the later half of
Monday, extending through Tuesday.

Temperatures will warm a bit within the Monday through Thursday time
period.  However, even by Wednesday through Friday, temperatures
will not exceed our seasonal mid-August averages with highs
remaining in the upper 80s to around 90

&&

.Aviation (18Z TAF issuance)...
Issued at 117 PM EDT Thu Aug 9 2012

Approaching mid-level wave combined with surface heating has led to
the development of scattered convection in the I-65 corridor of
central Kentucky.  Activity appears to be developing along a
residual northward moving outflow boundary.  Expect scattered
convection to continue developing across the region this afternoon.
Initially, best coverage will be across north-central Kentucky, but
as the area approaches the convective temperature, we should see
convection gradually fill in.  In general, VFR conditions are very
likely outside any thunderstorms.  If a storm impacts a terminal, a
reduction in cigs and visibilities down to possibly tempo IFR will
be possible.

More organized convection is forecast to occur later this afternoon
and evening as a secondary mid-level wave and associated surface
cold front push through the region.  These storms may pack a punch
as they move through with torrential rainfall, gusty winds, and
frequent lightning.  Timing from the previous forecast still looks
rather good with KBWG being impacted from 10/06-11Z, KSDF from
10/04-08Z and KLEX from about 10/08-12Z.  Latest model progs show
low-level moisture remaining in the region toward dawn with MVFR
visibilities and near IFR/MVFR cigs.  Low clouds will likely persist
through the morning hours on Friday with improvement likely holding
off until after 10/18Z.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

Short Term.......MJ
Long Term........JSD
Aviation.........MJ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
350 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-102300-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-CRAWFORD IN-
PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-BRECKINRIDGE KY-
MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-JEFFERSON KY-
OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-SCOTT KY-
HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-
NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-
LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-
EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-
WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-
ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...SALEM...SCOTTSBURG...MADISON...
JASPER...MARENGO...TELL CITY...CORYDON...NEW ALBANY...
JEFFERSONVILLE...HAWESVILLE...HARDINSBURG...BRANDENBURG...
BEAVER DAM...LEITCHFIELD...ELIZABETHTOWN...FORT KNOX...
MOUNT WASHINGTON...SHEPHERDSVILLE...LOUISVILLE...LA GRANGE...
BEDFORD...NEW CASTLE...SHELBYVILLE...FRANKFORT...GEORGETOWN...
CYNTHIANA...TAYLORSVILLE...LAWRENCEBURG...VERSAILLES...LEXINGTON...
PARIS...CARLISLE...BARDSTOWN...SPRINGFIELD...HARRODSBURG...
NICHOLASVILLE...WINCHESTER...HODGENVILLE...LEBANON...DANVILLE...
LANCASTER...RICHMOND...MORGANTOWN...BROWNSVILLE...MUNFORDVILLE...
GREENSBURG...CAMPBELLSVILLE...LIBERTY...STANFORD...RUSSELLVILLE...
BOWLING GREEN...FRANKLIN...SCOTTSVILLE...GLASGOW...TOMPKINSVILLE...
EDMONTON...COLUMBIA...JAMESTOWN...BURKESVILLE...ALBANY
350 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2012 /250 PM CDT THU AUG 9 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE OUTLOOK
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
TORRENTIAL RAINS...GUSTY WINDS AND INTENSE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT...ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED. THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. IN
ADDITION...TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL
BE POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME...THE HIGHEST RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED BETWEEN THE HOURS OF 10 PM THROUGH 4 AM
EASTERN TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA MONDAY
NIGHT AS A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR ACTIVATION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE
(ALL LOWER CASE)

MJ/JSD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
504 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

KYC073-103-211-092150-
SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-HENRY KY-
504 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...HALF
INCH HAIL...AND 50 MPH WINDS...

AT 502 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF SHELBYVILLE...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN WITH RAINFALL RATES
OF AROUND ONE INCH PER HOUR REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN ONE
MILE...HALF INCH HAIL...AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 45 TO 50
MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* THIS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  OLD CHRISTIANBURG AND BELLVIEW...
  BAGDAD...
  PLEASUREVILLE...
  ELMBURG AND NORTH PLEASUREVILLE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3845 8504 3830 8491 3821 8518 3832 8525
TIME...MOT...LOC 2104Z 236DEG 6KT 3830 8511

AMS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
523 PM EDT THU AUG 09 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     TSTM WND GST     8 N CYNTHIANA           38.50N  84.30W
08/09/2012  M61 MPH          HARRISON           KY   MESONET

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1201038

SZAPPANOS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
525 PM EDT THU AUG 09 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0255 PM     TSTM WND DMG     7 SW STANFORD           37.46N  84.75W
08/09/2012                   LINCOLN            KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SOME TREES REPORTED DOWN.

0349 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LEXINGTON               38.65N  85.62W
08/09/2012                   SCOTT              IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN.

0350 PM     HAIL             LEXINGTON               38.04N  84.46W
08/09/2012  M0.88 INCH       FAYETTE            KY   PUBLIC

0352 PM     HAIL             LEXINGTON               38.04N  84.46W
08/09/2012  M1.00 INCH       FAYETTE            KY   BROADCAST MEDIA

            NEAR SOUTHLAND DRIVE.

0355 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 N NICHOLASVILLE       37.91N  84.58W
08/09/2012                   JESSAMINE          KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            A TREE REPORTED DOWN.

0400 PM     HAIL             LEXINGTON               38.04N  84.46W
08/09/2012  M0.88 INCH       FAYETTE            KY   PUBLIC

0400 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 N LEXINGTON           38.69N  85.62W
08/09/2012                   JEFFERSON          IN   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TREE REPORTED DOWN ON A HOUSE.

0413 PM     TSTM WND DMG     VERSAILLES              38.05N  84.73W
08/09/2012                   WOODFORD           KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES REPORTED DOWN.

0515 PM     TSTM WND GST     8 N CYNTHIANA           38.50N  84.30W
08/09/2012  M61 MPH          HARRISON           KY   MESONET

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1201030 LMK1201031 LMK1201034 LMK1201032 LMK1201033
LMK1201035 LMK1201036 LMK1201037 LMK1201038

SZAPPANOS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
530 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

KYC097-209-092215-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-
530 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...TORRENTIAL RAIN...
HALF INCH HAIL...AND 50 MPH WINDS...

AT 530 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
WILLIAMSTOWN TO 8 MILES SOUTH OF OWENTON...AND MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...TORRENTIAL RAIN WITH RAINFALL
RATES OF AROUND TWO INCHES PER HOUR REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS
THAN ONE HALF MILE...HALF INCH HAIL...AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS OF
AROUND 45 TO 50 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

* THESE STORMS WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  SUTERVILLE AND MINORSVILLE...
  COLEMANSVILLE...
  BERRY AND HINTON...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING. EXPECT PONDING OF WATER ON LOCAL
ROADWAYS. DRIVERS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND TURN ON THEIR HEADLIGHTS IF
ENCOUNTERING HEAVY RAINS.

&&

LAT...LON 3848 8421 3831 8467 3835 8474 3845 8461
      3850 8456 3852 8449 3854 8448 3854 8444
      3856 8443 3857 8441
TIME...MOT...LOC 2131Z 270DEG 12KT 3860 8443 3842 8485

AMS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
546 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

KYC097-092230-
HARRISON KY-
546 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...TORRENTIAL RAIN...
AND 40 MPH WINDS...

AT 545 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES SOUTH OF FALMOUTH...AND MOVING EAST AT 20
MPH.

CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...TORRENTIAL RAIN WITH RAINFALL
RATES OF AROUND TWO INCHES PER HOUR REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS
THAN ONE HALF MILE...AND GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 35 TO 40 MPH...ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* THIS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  SUNRISE...
  CLAYSVILLE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING. EXPECT PONDING OF WATER ON LOCAL
ROADWAYS. DRIVERS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND TURN ON THEIR HEADLIGHTS IF
ENCOUNTERING HEAVY RAINS.

&&

LAT...LON 3845 8412 3856 8442 3858 8421 3857 8419
      3856 8420 3856 8417 3855 8416 3851 8418
      3850 8416 3848 8415 3848 8411 3846 8410
TIME...MOT...LOC 2146Z 271DEG 18KT 3857 8431

AMS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
554 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

INC037-092225-
DUBOIS IN-
554 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...HALF
INCH HAIL...AND 40 MPH WINDS WILL MOVE NORTH TOWARDS HUNTINGBURG IN
SOUTHERN DUBOIS COUNTY...

AT 549 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR DALE...AND MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...OCCASIONAL VERY HEAVY
RAIN...HALF INCH HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 35 TO 40
MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* THIS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  JASPER...
  SAINT HENRY AND JOHNSBURG...
  FERDINAND AND HOLLAND...
  HUNTINGBURG AIRPORT...
  BRETZVILLE AND HUNTINGBURG...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. EXPECT PONDING OF WATER ON LOCAL
ROADWAYS. DRIVERS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND TURN ON THEIR HEADLIGHTS IF
ENCOUNTERING HEAVY RAINS.

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3838 8669 3826 8668 3825 8680 3820 8681
      3820 8702 3820 8706 3841 8708
TIME...MOT...LOC 2153Z 189DEG 10KT 3820 8692

JSD