Special Weather Statement, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
653 PM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

.Mesoscale Update...
Issued at 635 PM EDT Tue Jul 24 2012

Clusters of storms continue to fire along a residual outflow from
near Tell City to Elizabethtown to Somerset. Updrafts have been very
strong, and with the development west of I-65 they have expanded
into a favorable downdraft CAPE environment, and effective bulk
shear is also improving in this area. This has broadened the threat
for damaging winds, so SPC has issued a new watch to the south and
west of the previous one, and extended a bit later into the evening.

Western end of the watch may appear generous at first glance.
However a few storms in the last hour have exhibited wind
signatures, and with colliding storms and boundaries, we could see
cold pool processes that will guide storms due south or even SSW
into the Bowling Green area. In addition to the wind threat, these
storms are prolific rain and lightning producers as well.

&&

.Short Term (Today through Wednesday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Tue Jul 24 2012

Biggest challenges are severe convection this afternoon and evening,
and heat and humidity Wednesday afternoon. Strong to severe storms
have moved into eastern Kentucky, but have left behind a few
different outflow boundaries across central Kentucky. Unstable
environment could still support the development of strong to severe
storms east of I-65, with damaging winds as the main threat.

Overnight is a low-confidence forecast with NW flow aloft and a warm
and moist air mass in the low levels. As evidenced by last night
over northern Illinois, it will not take too much to spark nocturnal
convection before the upper ridge caps us off. Therefore will
continue at least 20 POPs overnight across the Bluegrass.

Stronger ridging on Wednesday will put us back in the extreme heat.
Several degrees of spread between the GFS MOS and NAM MOS, and as
has been the case for most of the summer, will favor the warmer NAM.
Max temps will be just over 100 over southern Indiana and west of
I-65 in Kentucky, with mid/upper 90s farther east. Dewpoints will
only mix down into the mid/upper 60s in the hottest areas, which
will support heat index values close to 105. Therefore will raise a
heat advisory roughly along and west of a line from Frankfort to
Bowling Green for Wednesday.

.Long Term (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Tue Jul 24 2012

The upper-level ridge will slowly shift south as a trough digs from
south-central Canada into the eastern United States by the weekend.
The upper-level trough and associated surface cold front will
traverse the Ohio Valley Thursday night through Friday, which will
provide the best chance of area-wide showers and thunderstorms. At
this time it appears storms will develop across southern IL and IN
Thursday afternoon, with development across portions of KY by late
afternoon and evening. With plenty of diurnal heating and
precipitable water values around 2 inches, CAPE values in the
2000-3000 J/kg will be possible. As mentioned in the previous
discussion, multi-cell clusters are expected to develop with 0-6km
bulk shear values of 25-30 knots. It still appears convection could
grow upscale and form a cold-pool line of convection. This
convection and any additional development along the actual cold
front will move through Thursday night and exit the area during the
day Friday. Strong winds, excessive lightning, and heavy rainfall
would be the main threats with these storms.

With the passage of the cold front by late Friday, northwest flow
aloft will become established overhead, while surface high pressure
builds in from the northwest. Precipitation chances appear slim over
the weekend, with a slight chance of some storms associated with
remnant low-level moisture and afternoon heating across our east.
Ridging aloft will begin to edge into the area Monday and Tuesday.
Could see another chance of showers and thunderstorms both days as
convection develops on the periphery of ridging aloft.

As for temperatures, highs will be in the mid to upper 90s, perhaps
touching 100 at some locations Thursday. Heat index values will
reach the low 100s, with some locations maybe touching Heat Advisory
criteria before convection develops. Fortunately, heights and
temperatures will decrease Friday and through the weekend, with the
approach and passage of the front. Middle 80s to around 90 degrees
will be common Friday through Sunday, with lower humidity expected.
Overnight lows will drop back into the upper 60s to low 70s.
Temperatures could increase a few degrees Tuesday, with the ridge
aloft building over the area, but convection and debris clouds could
hold temps down a bit.

&&

.Aviation (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 650 PM EDT Tue Jul 24 2012

Outflow boundaries have helped to suppress convection well south of
SDF and LEX. However, a decent cluster of strong storms is about 40
miles NE of BWG, and could yet impact the terminal. Inclusion of any
prevailing thunderstorms will be a press time decision, but at this
point it seems quite likely that we will at least carry VCTS to
account for shifting and gusty winds in the outflow. Other than
that, conditions at the terminal should remain VFR unless there is a
direct impact from thunderstorms.

Any threat from convection should wane by 02Z, leaving behind VFR
conditions for most of the rest of the night. Only uncertainty is
fog potential in BWG if they should pick up substantial rain. Model
guidance is advertising MVFR visibility there, but as difficult as
it has been to get fog in recent weeks, will keep it VFR unless it
is obvious that there will be rain at BWG.

Hot ridge will dominate on Wednesday, and keep a lid on any
convection. VFR conditions expected with no more than a few diurnal
Cu, with higher bases than what we have seen the last few days.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ TO 9 PM EDT /8 PM CDT/
     WEDNESDAY FOR INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

KY...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ TO 9 PM EDT /8 PM CDT/
     WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ023>035-038-039-045-053-061>063-070>072.

Mesoscale........RAS
Short Term.......RAS
Long Term........MJP
Aviation.........RAS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1147 AM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

INZ076-083-084-089-090-KYZ023>028-053-061>065-070>078-081-082-251900-
ORANGE IN-DUBOIS IN-CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-LARUE KY-
BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-TAYLOR KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-
SIMPSON KY-ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-
RUSSELL KY-CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...JASPER...MARENGO...TELL CITY...
CORYDON...HAWESVILLE...HARDINSBURG...BRANDENBURG...BEAVER DAM...
LEITCHFIELD...ELIZABETHTOWN...FORT KNOX...HODGENVILLE...MORGANTOWN...
BROWNSVILLE...MUNFORDVILLE...GREENSBURG...CAMPBELLSVILLE...
RUSSELLVILLE...BOWLING GREEN...FRANKLIN...SCOTTSVILLE...GLASGOW...
TOMPKINSVILLE...EDMONTON...COLUMBIA...JAMESTOWN...BURKESVILLE...
ALBANY
1147 AM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012 /1047 AM CDT TUE JUL 24 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL REACH
AT LEAST THE MID 90S...WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES EXCEEDING
100 DEGREES...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-65.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. ANY STORMS WOULD CONTAIN BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS
AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. A BETTER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. DAMAGING WINDS AND INTENSE
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE THE MAIN WEATHER THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
AGAIN ON THURSDAY.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE (ALL LOWER CASE).

INZ077>079-091-092-KYZ029>043-045>049-054>057-066-067-251900-
WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-FAYETTE KY-
BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-MERCER KY-
JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-
CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SALEM...SCOTTSBURG...MADISON...
NEW ALBANY...JEFFERSONVILLE...MOUNT WASHINGTON...SHEPHERDSVILLE...
LOUISVILLE...LA GRANGE...BEDFORD...NEW CASTLE...SHELBYVILLE...
FRANKFORT...GEORGETOWN...CYNTHIANA...TAYLORSVILLE...LAWRENCEBURG...
VERSAILLES...LEXINGTON...PARIS...CARLISLE...BARDSTOWN...
SPRINGFIELD...HARRODSBURG...NICHOLASVILLE...WINCHESTER...LEBANON...
DANVILLE...LANCASTER...RICHMOND...LIBERTY...STANFORD
1147 AM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE BLUEGRASS REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING. STRONG INSTABILITY AND MODEST NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT MAY
ALLOW THESE STORMS TO BECOME ORGANIZED INTO CLUSTERS OR BOWING
SEGMENTS. SHOULD THESE STORMS BECOME ORGANIZED...SEVERAL
OCCURRENCES OF DAMAGING WINDS MAY DEVELOP.

HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH
THE LOWER TO MID 90S...WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR
100 DEGREES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. A BETTER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. DAMAGING WINDS AND INTENSE
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE THE MAIN WEATHER THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
AGAIN ON THURSDAY.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE (ALL LOWER CASE).

RAS

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
747 PM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

KYC087-099-169-250015-
METCALFE KY-GREEN KY-HART KY-
647 PM CDT TUE JUL 24 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...AND 50
MPH WINDS IN CENTRAL KENTUCKY...

AT 642 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES EAST OF MUNFORDVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 20 MPH.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH
ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* THIS STORM WILL IMPACT...
  PASCAL AND DEFRIES...
  MONROE AND LEGRANDE...
  WHICKERVILLE AND THREE SPRINGS...
  CRAILHOPE AND CENTER...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3714 8578 3717 8575 3716 8581 3737 8595
      3735 8569 3716 8553 3711 8577
TIME...MOT...LOC 2346Z 320DEG 18KT 3726 8577

13