Special Weather Statement, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
915 PM EDT THU JUL 19 2012

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 815 PM EDT Thu Jul 19 2012

Strong and severe storms are ongoing across the CWA ahead of a
surface low over central IN and an upper level disturbance moving
into the Ohio Valley. Separate clusters of forward propagating
storms have congealed into a line across south central Kentucky and
will continue to move southeast through the next few hours. Upstream
additional scattered storms are developing along the cold front
extending from the surface low. Will leave the watch in place for
the entire area to account for these storms, however will reduce
coverage from northwest to southeast over the next several hours.
Numerous reports of wind and lightning damage have been taken and
will continue across south central Kentucky where airmass has been
virtually untouched to this point.

With impulse still to the northwest and moist atmosphere still in
place, expect at least scattered coverage through the overnight.
Severe threat should diminish over the next few hours. Severe
T-storm watch is set to expire at 11 PM EDT. Coverage will increase
again, especially east of I-65 tomorrow ahead of the cold frontal
passage.

&&

.Short Term (Tonight - Friday Night)...
Issued at 320 PM EDT Thu Jul 19 2012

...Strong to Severe Storms Expected this Evening...

Storms have been slow to develop this afternoon with a slight cap in
place over most of the area.  However, one area that we have seen
some activity in is over portions of the Bluegrass and north central
KY where strong to marginally severe storms have been widely
scattered this afternoon.  We've had one report of 61 mph winds at
the Clark Co mesonet this afternoon.  This area had better lift due
to an upper level shortwave moving across central IN/OH today.  The
rest of our area has been inhibited by the cap and lack of trigger
so far.

This evening will be more favorable for a period of more widespread
strong to severe storms from about 7pm to 2am EDT.  We're already
starting to see more storms break the cap over north central KY east
of I-65 as of 3pm EDT.  Also, energy from the main upper level
trough will dive south this evening helping to produce numerous
showers and storms over the area.  Several sfc boundaries exist to
focus convection ahead of the main sfc front which extend SW from
the sfc low over central Illinois to southwest MO.  The low and sfc
front will move east overnight with the sfc front crossing the area
sometime tomorrow morning.  Some models indicate it may stall some
where over south central/east central KY tomorrow afternoon giving
southern and eastern portions of KY possibly another chance of
storms although probably not quite as strong. Convection should
clear the entire area sometime Fri night.

Strong to severe storms this evening will contain damaging winds as
the main threat.  With plenty of CAPE, severe hail will also be a
threat.  If a storm can latch onto a boundary, rotation or an isld
tornado could be possible but not likely.

With heat indices reaching criteria over most of the advisory area,
will leave in place for now.  Probably will cancel that early if
convection becomes more widespread.

Temps tonight will be in the lower 70s with highs tomorrow in the
mid 80s to around 90.  Lows Fri night will be in the upper 60s to
lower 70s.

.Long Term (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Thu Jul 19 2012

Main trough axis should be off to our southeast Saturday morning.
With that shift, airmass should be drier over us. Expect troughiness
to be to our east most of this period, but it will weaken as a ridge
builds into the lower Mississippi River Valley. Thus expect after a
near normal start to temperatures Saturday, we will see a steady
rise after that. After a dry weekend, we should start seeing
isolated coverage again Monday afternoon and then scattered storms
the rest of the week. Heat indices look to get close to the advisory
level by midweek.

&&

.Aviation (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 720 PM EDT Thu Jul 19 2012

Organized clusters of strong to severe storms are ongoing across the
TAF sites. Numerous thunderstorms will continue through the evening
ahead of an approaching cold front and upper level disturbance. Any
thunderstorm that hits a terminal will have potential to be briefly
severe with gusts over 50 knots, 1/4SM visibility and excessive
cloud to ground lightning. Especially over the next few hours at all
TAF sites. Surface winds will be variable and gusty this evening
with outflow boundaries all over the place. Thereafter, a general
WSW flow between 5 to 10 mph will take over. Cold front will
gradually slide through the area during the day tomorrow with
scattered to numerous storms developing along and east of I-65 ahead
of the front.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

Update...........BJS
Short Term.......AMS
Long Term........RJS
Aviation.........BJS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
908 PM EDT THU JUL 19 2012

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-210415-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-CRAWFORD IN-
PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-BRECKINRIDGE KY-
MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-JEFFERSON KY-
OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-SCOTT KY-
HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-
NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-
LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-
EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-
WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-
ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...SALEM...SCOTTSBURG...MADISON...
JASPER...MARENGO...TELL CITY...CORYDON...NEW ALBANY...
JEFFERSONVILLE...HAWESVILLE...HARDINSBURG...BRANDENBURG...
BEAVER DAM...LEITCHFIELD...ELIZABETHTOWN...FORT KNOX...
MOUNT WASHINGTON...SHEPHERDSVILLE...LOUISVILLE...LA GRANGE...
BEDFORD...NEW CASTLE...SHELBYVILLE...FRANKFORT...GEORGETOWN...
CYNTHIANA...TAYLORSVILLE...LAWRENCEBURG...VERSAILLES...LEXINGTON...
PARIS...CARLISLE...BARDSTOWN...SPRINGFIELD...HARRODSBURG...
NICHOLASVILLE...WINCHESTER...HODGENVILLE...LEBANON...DANVILLE...
LANCASTER...RICHMOND...MORGANTOWN...BROWNSVILLE...MUNFORDVILLE...
GREENSBURG...CAMPBELLSVILLE...LIBERTY...STANFORD...RUSSELLVILLE...
BOWLING GREEN...FRANKLIN...SCOTTSVILLE...GLASGOW...TOMPKINSVILLE...
EDMONTON...COLUMBIA...JAMESTOWN...BURKESVILLE...ALBANY
908 PM EDT THU JUL 19 2012 /808 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2012/

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 495 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT /10 PM
CDT/ THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW. STRONG AND SEVERE
STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL... EXCESSIVE CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
EVENING AS A WEAK COOL FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH CROSS THE REGION. THE
MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND GUSTY WINDS.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS. THUNDERSTORMS MAY INCREASE
IN COVERAGE ON WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK COOL FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT INSTANCES OF STRONG WINDS AND
VERY HEAVY RAIN TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE (ALL LOWER CASE).

BJS/RJS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
957 PM EDT THU JUL 19 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0805 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HARRODSBURG             37.77N  84.85W
07/19/2012                   MERCER             KY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            A TREE FELL ACROSS A POWER LINE ON BUBBLE LINK DRIVE.
            AT ANOTHER LOCATION IN HARRODSBURG...A LARGE BRANCH FELL
            ACROSS A POWER LINE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1200857

JSD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1013 PM EDT THU JUL 19 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SSE MIDWAY            38.14N  84.68W
07/19/2012                   WOODFORD           KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN ON AIKEN ROAD AND OLD FRANKFORT
            PIKE

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1200858

EBW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1016 PM EDT THU JUL 19 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SALEM                   38.60N  86.10W
07/19/2012                   WASHINGTON         IN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN CITY WIDE IN SALEM

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1200859

EBW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1022 PM EDT THU JUL 19 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0947 PM     TSTM WND DMG     EDMONTON                36.98N  85.62W
07/19/2012                   METCALFE           KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN COUNTYWIDE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1200860

MRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1024 PM EDT THU JUL 19 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0450 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 N SALEM               38.63N  86.10W
07/19/2012                   WASHINGTON         IN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1200861

EBW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1024 PM EDT THU JUL 19 2012

INC123-KYC091-200255-
PERRY IN-HANCOCK KY-
924 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...MODERATE RAIN...
HALF INCH HAIL...AND 40 MPH WINDS...

AT 919 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR GRANDVIEW...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING...MODERATE RAIN WITH RAINFALL RATES OF AROUND
ONE HALF INCH PER HOUR REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN THREE
MILES...HALF INCH HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 35 TO 40 MPH...ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* THIS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  HAWESVILLE...
  TELL CITY...
  TROY...
  ADAIR...
  PETRI...
  CANNELTON AND FENN HAVEN...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

STRONG WINDS WITH THIS STORM CAN TOPPLE WEAKLY ROOTED TREES...AND
DOWN POWER LINES. TAKE PRECAUTIONS NOW TO SECURE TRASH CANS...LAWN
FURNITURE AND OTHER LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS. MOTORISTS IN HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES SHOULD USE CAUTION.

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3794 8691 3799 8686 3801 8680 3787 8660
      3784 8664 3784 8667 3781 8667 3773 8676
      3783 8686 3783 8688 3786 8692 3788 8690
      3790 8692 3790 8695 3793 8698
TIME...MOT...LOC 0224Z 308DEG 20KT 3797 8689

JDG