Special Weather Statement, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
331 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2012

.Short Term (Tonight through Friday night)...
Issued at 320 PM EDT Thu May 31 2012

A 500mb trough now over the Upper Midwest will amplify rapidly by
Friday morning as jet stream energy digs south along its back side.
Weak low pressure currently  (@ 2pm EDT) over southern Illinois will
slowly move east across southern Indiana and is expected to begin to
deepen pretty rapidly just as it passes north of Louisville late
this evening. An unusually chilly early June airmass will then
arrive early Friday, keeping afternoon highs in the lower to mid
60s, which is not too far from the all time record low high for June
1st (62 at Standiford).

This evening's precipitation will mostly likely begin as a north
south orientated line of convection that is already beginning to
develop across southern Illinois. Moisture return up to this point
has not been robust as southeast winds have kept dewpoints in the
mid 50s. Winds will eventually veer to the south or southwest by
late afternoon as the aforementioned surface low moves closer to
Louisville.

Despite only weak to moderate instability and moisture return,
strong upper air dynamics coupled with wide surface T/Td depressions
may lead to the formation of one or more bowing segments with a
threat of damaging winds. With backed surface winds, an isolated
tornado east of the developing surface low is possible. However, the
large T/Td depression and relative high Lifted Condensation Level
(LCL) would argue against tornado formation.

Best guess on the timing for this line would have it arriving over
our western counties by late afternoon, crossing Interstate 65 by
early to mid evening, and exiting our Bluegrass Counties around
midnight. With the arrival of this strengthening upper trough,
expect that occasional showers may continue through the early
morning hours.

Even with showers ending during the morning hours, expect somewhat
of a dingy day Friday with persistent low clouds and somewhat brisk
west winds around 10 to 15 mph continue through the afternoon. Skies
will tend to slowly clear beginning from our southwest counties by
late afternoon, with partly cloudy skies arriving over our entire
CWA after midnight. Temperatures will cool well into the 50 to 55
degree range.

.Long Term (Saturday through Wednesday night)...
Issued at 320 PM EDT Thu May 31 2012

Saturday through Sunday night...

The exiting low pressure system to the north and east will place the
forecast area under northwest flow, leaving temperatures cooler than
normal for this time of year. Additionally, this type of flow is
notorious for placing central Kentucky and southern Indiana under
persistent cloud cover and occasional showers. Therefore, have
mentionable PoPs on Saturday afternoon and despite instability
looking weak, given the time of year, included isolated t-storms due
to daytime heating possibly kicking things up a notch. Shower
chances may spread further south Saturday night but looks to clear
out until early next week.

As previously alluded to, temperatures will be below average on
Saturday and Saturday night, with highs in the mid 70s and lows in
the mid 50s. Sunday will see some warm up closer to normal with
highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s and lows in the upper 50s to
low 60s.

Monday through Wednesday night...

This time frame is proving to be a little on the tricky side for the
beginning of the week as the GFS has a surface low pressure system
crossing through the Ohio Valley Monday afternoon into the overnight
period, bringing decent precip chances to the forecast area.
However, the ECMWF is keeping the area dry through the end of the
forecast period. What they do agree on is the stout ridge that
builds over the Plains, leaving the Ohio Valley on the periphery.
Given the uncertainty, have left some PoPs in for Monday afternoon
but will certainly need to be monitored for model changes over the
next day or two. Any precipitation that does fire up will be in the
form of thunderstorms. It should be dry otherwise through Wednesday.
Temperatures look to linger near normal, reaching the mid 80s during
the days and the low 60s overnight.

&&

.Aviation (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Updated at 110 PM EDT Thu May 31 2012

Surface low pressure will move parallel to and just north of the
Ohio River this evening. Expect that a line of storms will develop
by late afternoon and affect the SDF and BWG TAF sites in
approximately the 00 to 03z time frame early Friday. Storms will
arrive at LEX one to two hours later. This line has the potential to
be strong with gusty winds and brief IFR visibilities and ceilings.

Prior to the arrival of this expected line of storms, VFR flying
conditions are expected at all TAF sites despite some increasing mid
level cloudiness. Once thunderstorms end around 06 to 07z, MVFR
ceilings are expected to continue well into Friday morning, probably
past 15z at the earliest. Occasional showers may also continue on an
intermittent basis through 12z Friday.

Southeast winds will increase to around 10 to 11 KT by 00z this
afternoon, then veer to the southwest around 10 KT late this evening
or early Friday behind this possible initial line of storms.

A cold front will move across the area around 06z. West winds of 12
to 15KT will develop after 08z and continue through Friday
afternoon. West winds may occasionally gust up to 25 mph late Friday
morning or afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

Short Term.......lg
Long Term........JSD
Aviation.........JSD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
357 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2012

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>035-038-039-045>047-053-054-
061>065-070>074-076-012000-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-MERCER KY-LARUE KY-
MARION KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-TAYLOR KY-
LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-METCALFE KY-
357 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2012 /257 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING.

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY BY LATE
AFTERNOON. BY EARLY THIS EVENING...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWESTERN INDIANA AND
INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS LINE WILL MOVE
EAST OF INTERSTATE 65 BY EARLY EVENING. THESE STORMS HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE BOWING SEGMENTS THAT MAY CONTAIN DAMAGING WINDS. AN
ISOLATED TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING ALONG THE
WARM FRONT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DO OCCUR WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO REPORT ANY DAMAGING WINDS OR HAIL TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

KYZ036-037-040>043-048-049-055>057-066-067-075-077-078-081-082-
012000-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-WOODFORD KY-FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-
NICHOLAS KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-BOYLE KY-GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-
CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-MONROE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-CUMBERLAND KY-
CLINTON KY-
357 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2012 /257 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS AND LAKE CUMBERLAND
REGIONS LATE THIS EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DO OCCUR WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO REPORT ANY DAMAGING WINDS OR SMALL HAIL TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

JSD/LG

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