Special Weather Statement, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
315 PM EDT MON APR 30 2012

.Short Term (Tonight through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Mon Apr 30 2012

Wet period in store for the region as airmass that is 2-3 standard
deviations more moist than normal. This moisture is pooled south of
a stationary front that will stay north of the region. The period
will begin with a bang as we get a line of storms moving in from the
west late this afternoon and continuing into the evening. Warmer
temperatures at 700 mb, as per latest SPC mesoanalysis, that have
kept the region capped through the day so far are headed eastward.
Soundings indicate the chance for some organized cells with bowing
segments as 50-60 kt winds aloft get pushed down. Wet bulb zeroes
are low for now, but should go up as the evening goes along and more
moisture gets pumped into the area.

While the threat for severe weather should abate later this evening,
the moisture field will stay across the area. A brief lull should
follow the line coming through this evening, but a narrow 30-40 kt
low-level jet to return overnight and aid in forcing more storms.
Then on Tuesday expect one more wave aloft to move across the region
and provide another good shot at storms. Tuesday night the boundary
will lift farther away from the region and expect ridging aloft to
effectively end precip chances and bring a warmup, as per the
discussion below.

Temperatures this period will depend on convective timing. Have gone
with a quick drop in readings along the expected line of storms.
Then should see a slow drop to the mid 60s for lows tonight. Highs
tomorrow will depend greatly on any breaks in the cloud cover. For
now have highs in the upper 70s/around 80 for most of the area, save
for the southern counties where have lower 80s. Readings should fall
again only to the mid 60s Tuesday night.

.Long Term (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Apr 30 2012

...Very warm temperatures more typical of late June are expected
Wednesday through at least Friday...

The upper air pattern beginning early Wednesday will feature a
pattern typical of early summer. The jet, after exiting a broad
trough centered over Idaho, will flow northeast across Lake
Superior. By Friday, the jet will still be located well north of the
Great Lakes, a location more typical of mid-summer than early May.

The Bermuda High, frequently located east of the Florida coast will
become displaced farther west, and is expected to be located over or
near Georgia. 500mb ridging associated with this high will extend
northwestward over the Lower Ohio Valley. Southwesterly flow near
the surface, coupled with broad subsidence, will allow plenty of sun
and 925mb temperatures to reach 24C. Although we are obviously
green, antecedent ground conditions are not wet. It will be quite
possible for high temperatures to approach 90 on Wednesday and
Thursday, and quite possibly Friday as well. Overnight lows will
stay quite mild as well, remaining well up in the mid 60s.

Guidance varies on both precipitation chances and temperatures
this weekend. For certain, Saturday and Sunday will stay warm, and
may even trend towards hot. The ECMWF continues to forecast ridging
and very warm temperatures over the Ohio Valley. The latest
operational GFS however, flattens the ridge across Indiana and Ohio
and attempts to bring a cold front southward towards the Ohio River
Saturday and Sunday. Should this occur, temperatures will trend just
a bit cooler across the north (highs closer to 80 compared to near
90 as forecast by the ECMWF). Precipitation chances this weekend
will depend on the evolution of this potential boundary. At the very
least, will continue at least a chance for afternoon and early
evening thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday.

Winds will stay reasonably light and consistent Wednesday through
Friday. Light south winds overnight will tend to freshen a bit each
afternoon and peak in the 10 to 15 mph range. Should the GFS verify,
winds will switch to the north Monday with expected high
temperatures falling into the upper 70s.

&&

.Aviation (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Updated at 125 PM EDT Mon Apr 30 2012

Warm frontal boundary continues to push slowly northward across the
Cold frontal boundary to the west will head eastward late this
afternoon and evening bringing a chance of showers and storms to the
terminals late this afternoon...and more likely this evening. Have
tried to time the best chance for stronger storms moving through the
terminals based on the rapid refresh and SPC WRF models. This
forecast probably will have to be fine tuned as these storms
organize. The rest of the forecast will keep in chances for storms
has a frontal boundary gets stalled over the region and as moisture
increases in the atmosphere to well above normal for this time of
year.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

Short Term.......RJS
Long Term........JSD
Aviation.........RJS

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
428 PM EDT MON APR 30 2012

KYZ073-074-076-302115-
ALLEN-BARREN-METCALF-
328 PM CDT MON APR 30 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH HALF INCH HAIL...AND 40 MPH WINDS WILL
QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN ALLEN AND BARREN COUNTIES...

AT 322 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR SCOTTSVILLE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35
MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 45 MPH...ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS STORM.

* THIS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  SCOTTSVILLE...
  GLASGOW...
  AUSTIN AND PORT OLIVER FORD...
  LUCAS AND FINNEY...
  COOKTOWN AND RED CROSS...
  HAYWOOD AND BRISTLETOWN...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3683 8628 3693 8620 3692 8619 3694 8617
      3699 8614 3706 8607 3716 8600 3714 8589
      3689 8563 3684 8574 3684 8577 3680 8584
      3671 8597 3665 8609
TIME...MOT...LOC 2027Z 228DEG 30KT 3681 8614

JSD