Alert archive / Kentucky / Special Weather Statements in 2012

Special Weather Statement, NWS Louisville, KY

April 3, 2012Lincoln County, Kentucky

NWS Louisville, KY issued this special weather statement at Apr 3, 2012, 3:43 PM EDT for Lincoln County, Kentucky. It was in force for 32 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Apr 3, 2012, 3:43 PM EDT (19:43 UTC)
Expired: Apr 3, 2012, 4:15 PM EDT
In force: 32 min
Issued by: NWS Louisville, KY

County Lincoln County, KY

The radar

The Jackson,KY radar (KJKL), 125 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:43 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Nashville Metro, TN (KBNA), launched 12:00Z, 7.7 hours before the alert went out and 218 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 995 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -89 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 894 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 8 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -20 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 0 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Louisville, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Apr 3, 3:29 PM EDT, 14 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Apr 3, 3:29 PM EDT, 14 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
329 PM EDT TUE APR 03 2012

.Short Term (Tonight through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 320 PM EDT Apr 3 2012

Isolated thunderstorms have developed over southeastern CWA where
CAPE values around 2000-2500 J/KG developed south of a boundary
evident on visible satellite. Main threat with any afternoon
thunderstorms will be brief heavy rainfall, cloud to ground
lightning, and large hail. Best coverage of thunderstorm develop
will gradually transition from southeast CWA to western CWA through
the evening hours.

As we move into the late evening and overnight, coverage of showers
and thunderstorms will increase across the western and northern CWA.
This will be in response to two features. A shortwave currently near
the Ohio/Mississippi River valley confluence moving up the Ohio
Valley around the periphery of the ridge axis, and a frontal boundary
sinking south from central IL/IN. At this point, convection is
expected to fire along this boundary to the north and then move
south through the CWA overnight. Best timing at this point appears
to be 10 PM  - 2 AM in the southern Indiana counties, then moving
southward overnight. With the amount of instability these storms
will have to work with, large hail and damaging winds will be
possible. Storm prediction center does have a slight risk for the
entire CWA overnight. Have numerous thunderstorms mentioned in
forecast for the entire area overnight. Low temperatures are
expected to mild, in the low 60s.

Front will be slow to move south tomorrow, which will provide focus
for numerous showers and thunderstorms through much of the day.
Areas along and north of the Ohio River could see things dry out by
early to mid afternoon as the front sinks south. Highs tomorrow will
be held in check by ample cloud cover. The mercury is expected to
only reach into the 70-75 degree range. Some upper 60s are possible
in southern Indiana.

Wednesday night will feature continued scattered to numerous showers
and some thunderstorms along and south of a Louisville to Lexington
line as front will be just south of the area and upper low moves to
the middle Mississippi River Valley. Low will be cooler on the north
side of the boundary, in the upper 40s north to upper 50s south.

Overall rainfall totals should range from a half an inch to an inch
through Wednesday night. Localized areas could see over an inch if
repeated thunderstorms move over an area.

.Long Term (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Updated at 320 PM EDT Apr 3 2012

Pretty good model agreement at start of period with placement of
upper low somewhere along the western AR/MO border. By the end of
the day Thursday, this low should be in the Tennessee Valley and
continue to shift eastward through the night as a strong ridge
builds into the central U.S. The trend for a slower movement of this
system continues, so will bring rain chances for the day Thursday up
some. Not quite as concerned about storm chances as soundings do not
show much CAPE and we are not in a favored side of the system. For
now will trim down to slight chance storms and just over the south.

By Saturday, the ridge axis will be along the mid Mississippi River
Valley, with our area under northwesterly flow ahead of it. This
ridge will start to give way to another upper low moving in from
south central Canada on Sunday. Given the strength of the ridge and
somewhat limited moisture, continue to keep in low end chances for
showers and storms in association with another front moving through
Saturday night or Sunday.

The 00Z EC and the 12Z GFS both show the Canada low becoming more
dominate for bringing a cool down by mid next week.  Not convinced
just yet that we will get down to freezing. The Arctic Oscillation
7-day forecast has the sign going positive after the current
near-zero period, but a few of the ensemble members go very
negative, matching what the deterministic GFS is showing. Will have
to keep an eye on this, especially for agricultural interests.

&&

.Aviation (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Updated at 114 PM EDT Apr 3 2012

Warm front has lifted well northeast of LEX today and we will
continue to destabilize through the afternoon hours. Could see
isolated to scattered storms develop this afternoon, however
coverage is not expected to be widespread enough for any specific
mention in TAFs. Will amend if necessary. VFR conditions are
expected to prevail through the rest of this afternoon and a good
portion of this evening outside of any thunderstorm activity.

As we move into the evening and overnight hours, surface low
currently in west central Illinois will slide to eastern Ohio.
Numerous showers and storms will erupt along the trailing cold front
across central IL/IN/OH. Storms are then expected to slide southward
and could impact SDF/LEX around or shortly after midnight. BWG would
follow a few hours later. Visibilities/ceilings could drop to IFR or
worse in any thunderstorm overnight. By dawn tomorrow, MVFR ceilings
and continued showers and thunderstorms are expected to persist.
Surface winds should generally stay out of the southwest between 5
and 10 mph through the period. SDF/LEX can expect a wind shift to
the northwest late in the forecast period as the cold front passes
south.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

Short Term.......BJS
Long Term........RJS
Aviation.........BJS

Hazardous weather outlook, Apr 3, 12:13 PM EDT, 3 hours 30 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1213 PM EDT TUE APR 3 2012

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-041615-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-
MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-
TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
1213 PM EDT TUE APR 3 2012 /1113 AM CDT TUE APR 3 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES UNSTABLE. THERE WILL BE A BETTER
CHANCE FOR STORMS TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH. ALL THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUS LIGHTNING
AND HEAVY RAIN. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE HAIL...WITH STRONG WINDS ALSO A POSSIBILITY
OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT AS A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES
THE REGION. ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PERIODS
OF HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY HAIL OR STRONG WINDS TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

BJS/MJ

In the hours before

Local storm report, Apr 3, 11:19 AM EDT, 4 hours 24 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1119 AM EDT TUE APR 03 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0525 PM     HAIL             3 NNE BEE SPRING        37.32N  86.26W
04/02/2012  E1.75 INCH       EDMONSON           KY   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            THE STATE HIGHWAY DEPT REPORTED GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL IN
            THE TOWN OF BROADWAY.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1200494

JSD

Special weather statement, Apr 3, 3:07 PM EDT, 36 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
307 PM EDT TUE APR 3 2012

KYZ066-031930-
CASEY-
307 PM EDT TUE APR 3 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...AND NICKEL SIZE
HAIL NEAR LABASCUS...IN CASEY COUNTY...

AT 302 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTH OF LIBERTY...AND MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 5 MPH.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...40 MPH WIND GUSTS...AND NICKEL
SIZE HAIL...ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* THIS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  CANTOWN...
  GILPIN...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3733 8488 3722 8481 3718 8495 3726 8503
TIME...MOT...LOC 1906Z 231DEG 6KT 3725 8493

JSD

Special weather statement, Apr 3, 3:12 PM EDT, 31 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
312 PM EDT TUE APR 3 2012

KYZ066-067-031945-
CASEY-LINCOLN-
312 PM EDT TUE APR 3 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...PENNY
SIZE HAIL...AND 40 MPH WINDS WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY...

AT 309 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11 MILES NORTHEAST OF LIBERTY...AND MOVING EAST
AT 15 MPH.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN WITH RAINFALL RATES
OF AROUND ONE INCH PER HOUR REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN ONE
MILE...PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 35 TO 40 MPH...ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* THIS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  DUNCAN AND WALLTOWN...
  KINGS MOUNTAIN...
  HIGHLAND...
  WAYNESBURG...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3734 8449 3733 8452 3735 8456 3728 8466
      3727 8468 3735 8487 3747 8481 3741 8447
TIME...MOT...LOC 1912Z 289DEG 13KT 3738 8475

JSD

Special weather statement, Apr 3, 3:43 PM EDT, 0 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
343 PM EDT TUE APR 3 2012

KYZ066-067-032015-
CASEY-LINCOLN-
343 PM EDT TUE APR 3 2012

...A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND 40 MPH WINDS WILL
MOVE ACROSS EASTERN CASEY AND SOUTHERN LINCOLN COUNTIES...

AT 338 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
SEVERAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MOUNT
SALEM. THESE STORMS WERE MOVING VERY SLOWLY TO THE EAST AT 10 MPH.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN WITH RAINFALL RATES
OF AROUND ONE INCH PER HOUR REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN ONE
MILE...PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 35 TO 40 MPH...ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

* THIS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  MOUNT SALEM...
  NEW SALEM AND MOUNT OLIVE...
  DUNCAN AND WALLTOWN...
  WAYNESBURG AND KINGS MOUNTAIN...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3734 8457 3724 8471 3729 8493 3751 8488
      3744 8453
TIME...MOT...LOC 1941Z 275DEG 15KT 3735 8484

JSD

The office that day

Everything else NWS Louisville, KY issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Apr 3, 2:39 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Marion, Taylor	36 min
Apr 3, 3:07 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	LMK	Casey	23 min
Apr 3, 3:12 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	LMK	Lincoln	33 min
Apr 3, 4:49 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	LMK	Casey	26 min
Apr 3, 5:32 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	LMK	Casey	13 min
Apr 3, 5:38 PM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	LMK	Casey	82 min
Apr 3, 5:43 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	LMK	Madison	32 min
Apr 3, 5:53 PM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	LMK	Garrard, Madison	82 min
Apr 3, 6:05 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Madison	25 min
Apr 3, 6:09 PM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	LMK	Madison	3 hr
Apr 3, 6:35 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Madison	25 min
Apr 3, 7:17 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Lincoln	43 min
Apr 3, 7:48 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	LMK	Garrard, Madison	42 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Kentucky, 2012 Every special weather statement in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.