Alert archive / Kentucky / Special Weather Statements in 2012

Special Weather Statement, NWS Louisville, KY

March 23, 2012Breckinridge County, Kentucky

NWS Louisville, KY issued this special weather statement at Mar 23, 2012, 5:49 PM CDT for Breckinridge County, Kentucky. It was in force for 26 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Mar 23, 2012, 5:49 PM CDT (22:49 UTC)
Expired: Mar 23, 2012, 6:15 PM CDT
In force: 26 min
Issued by: NWS Louisville, KY

County Breckinridge County, KY

The radar

The Louisville radar (KLVX), 54 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:52 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Nashville Metro, TN (KBNA), launched 12:00Z, 10.8 hours before the alert went out and 167 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 351 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -9 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 575 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 55 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 129 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 122 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 1.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Louisville, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Mar 23, 2:10 PM CDT, 3 hours 39 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 23, 2:10 PM CDT, 3 hours 39 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
310 PM EDT FRI MAR 23 2012

.Short Term (Today through Saturday night)...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Fri Mar 23 2012

Upper-level low spinning over Missouri will continue to bring
chances of showers and storms through the rest of today and tonight,
and on into Saturday and Saturday night. Currently, band of
showers/storms are pushing north, with a few low-topped cells
rotating within the band. Even had a report of one of the storms
producing a quick touchdown south of the Gene Snyder in south
Jefferson county KY. Other cells moving through Shelby county show
rotation as well. This trend may continue for the next hour or so
east of I-65. Otherwise, the main show should be the strong to
severe storms popping up across southern IL and western KY. Those
cells are producing mostly large hail and a few isolated reports of
tornadoes. However, the storms are moving more north than east, so
it may take a few more hours before the line reaches our CWA border.
That is also assuming that the storms continue to develop on the
southern edge and move north. Looks like any threat with storms
upstream will be west of I-65 between 5-8pm EDT. If the line
continues east, the severe threat should diminish as low-level
instability weakens after sunset. However, isolated hailers will
still be possible across the area overnight. Until sunset though, if
those storms reach this far east, there will be a hail, isolated
tornado and damaging wind threat.

Overnight, the potential line will lose some strength but will
continue eastward across the CWA as the upper low approaches. For
tomorrow, looks like the southeast portion of the CWA will have the
best chance for rain/storms as another band of instability develops
downstream of the upper low. Again, hail will be the main threat
with any storm with low freezing/wet-bulb heights mainly during the
afternoon hours. Activity should again be scattered-numerous, but
less threatening than today. Any precipitation should move east out
of the CWA tomorrow night.

Concerning temps, overnight lows will drop into the low 50s, and
tomorrow night. Tomorrow, more clouds will blanket the area, so
think temps will suffer more with the upper low overhead. Have highs
in the low 60s north to the upper 60s south/southeast.

.Long Term (Sunday through Friday)...
Updated at 300 PM EDT Mar 23 2012

The closed low will be centered over the Carolinas by Sunday
morning. Still appears the bulk of the deep moisture will be east of
our forecast area, which will mean an end to precipitation for most
locations. There could be a few showers across eastern Kentucky
during the afternoon hours, but our area looks to remain dry. With
some cloud cover remaining across our eastern CWA, high temperatures
in the upper 60s can be expected, while our western CWA should get
into the lower 70s.

Surface high pressure and ridging aloft remains on track to slide
across the forecast area Sunday night through Tuesday. This will
keep the area dry, with high temperatures mostly in the upper 60s
and low 70s. Overnight lows will generally range from the upper 40s
to low 50s. As mentioned in the previous forecast discussion, Monday
night will be the coolest night with readings ranging from the low
40s in the northeast to upper 40s in the southwest. Some isolated
locations could dip into the upper 30s.

By late Tuesday night a cold front will approach the forecast area
from the northwest as upper-level ridging and surface high pressure
shift east. This front will push southeast across southern Indiana
and central Kentucky Wednesday and Wednesday night, providing
scattered showers and thunderstorms. By Thursday morning, this
boundary should be positioned across the Tennessee Valley or perhaps
even further south, which means we will get back into another dry
period Thursday through Friday.

Temperatures will warm up for most locations Wednesday out ahead of
the cold front, with readings in the mid and perhaps upper 70s. Will
cool things down a few degrees Thursday and Friday, with readings in
the upper 60s and low 70s expected.

&&

.Aviation (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Updated at 100 PM EDT Mar 23 2012

Several bands of showers with a threat of embedded thunderstorms
will rotate to the north around the east side of a closed low across
Missouri. For this evening and overnight, expect mostly cloudy skies
with ceilings within the VFR range outside of any showers.

Expect several hours of partly cloudy skies at BWG with a band of
showers potentially moving across BWG in the 21z to 23z time frame.

At SDF scattered thunderstorms will be affecting the TAF site right
around the TAF issuance time of 18z. These storms will have exited
the SDF airport by 1930z.

Scattered showers with some embedded thunder will affect LEX in the
18z to 22z time frame.

For the overnight period, scattered showers will continue, although
mostly cloudy skies will predominate with ceilings near the VFR/MVFR
threshold.

South winds around 10 mph will continue through this afternoon.
Between 18z and 21z, some wind gusts may exceed 20mph.

Winds will diminish to around 5 to 7 mph tonight.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

Short Term.......AL
Long Term........MJP
Aviation.........JSD

Hazardous weather outlook, Mar 23, 2:55 PM CDT, 2 hours 54 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
355 PM EDT FRI MAR 23 2012

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-242000-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-
MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-
TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
355 PM EDT FRI MAR 23 2012 /255 PM CDT FRI MAR 23 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY
TONIGHT. AHEAD OF IT...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO THREATEN THE ENTIRE REGION. THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND AMPLE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING BEING THE MAIN
THREATS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
BETWEEN 6 AND 10PM EDT WEST OF I-65.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT...WITH THE
THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS WANING AFTER SUNSET. ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL
STILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN
SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT INSTANCES OF LARGE HAIL OR
DAMAGING WINDS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

AL/MJP

In the hours before

Local storm report, Mar 23, 1:35 PM CDT, 4 hours 14 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
235 PM EDT FRI MAR 23 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0214 PM     TORNADO          FERN CREEK              38.16N  85.60W
03/23/2012                   JEFFERSON          KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TORNADO TOUCHDOWN IN THE HERITAGE CREEK AREA

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1200463

RL

Special weather statement, Mar 23, 2:00 PM CDT, 3 hours 49 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
300 PM EDT FRI MAR 23 2012

KYZ033-034-231930-
HENRY-SHELBY-
300 PM EDT FRI MAR 23 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...HALF
INCH HAIL...AND 40 MPH WINDS...

AT 256 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF SHELBYVILLE...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN WITH RAINFALL RATES OF AROUND ONE
INCH PER HOUR REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN ONE MILE...HALF INCH
HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 35 TO 40 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

* THIS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  PLEASUREVILLE AND ELMBURG...
  DEFOE AND NORTH PLEASUREVILLE...
  BETHLEHEM...
  SLABTOWN AND FRANKLINTON...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3856 8500 3851 8502 3852 8499 3849 8499
      3846 8494 3847 8492 3846 8490 3844 8492
      3842 8488 3840 8488 3837 8491 3834 8499
      3834 8497 3820 8511 3829 8522 3858 8504
TIME...MOT...LOC 1900Z 216DEG 23KT 3830 8513

AMS

Special weather statement, Mar 23, 2:30 PM CDT, 3 hours 19 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
330 PM EDT FRI MAR 23 2012

INZ079-KYZ032-232000-
JEFFERSON-TRIMBLE-
330 PM EDT FRI MAR 23 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...AND 40
MPH WINDS...

AT 328 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR BEDFORD...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN WITH RAINFALL RATES OF AROUND ONE
INCH PER HOUR REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN ONE MILE...AND GUSTY
WINDS OF AROUND 35 TO 40 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* THIS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  BEDFORD...
  PROVIDENCE...
  MONITOR...
  BROOKSBURG...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3885 8520 3869 8519 3869 8521 3874 8526
      3873 8527 3870 8529 3863 8522 3858 8520
      3853 8528 3859 8536 3886 8521
TIME...MOT...LOC 1930Z 212DEG 19KT 3857 8527

AMS

Special weather statement, Mar 23, 2:56 PM CDT, 2 hours 53 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
356 PM EDT FRI MAR 23 2012

KYZ028-029-045-232030-
BULLITT-HARDIN-NELSON-
356 PM EDT FRI MAR 23 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...PENNY SIZE HAIL...
AND 40 MPH WINDS...

AT 351 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR ELIZABETHTOWN...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35
MPH.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...DIME SIZE HAIL...AND GUSTY
WINDS OF AROUND 35 TO 40 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* THIS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  EAST OF ELIZABETHTOWN...
  YOUNGER CREEK AND COLESBURG...
  LEBANON JUNCTION AND BOOTH...
  SCUFFLETOWN AND BELMONT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3787 8552 3773 8567 3772 8569 3768 8571
      3765 8575 3764 8577 3763 8578 3762 8581
      3765 8587 3794 8578
TIME...MOT...LOC 1956Z 206DEG 29KT 3771 8578

JSD

Special weather statement, Mar 23, 5:31 PM CDT, 18 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
631 PM EDT FRI MAR 23 2012

KYZ024-232300-
BRECKINRIDGE-
531 PM CDT FRI MAR 23 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...MODERATE RAIN...AND
HALF INCH HAIL...

AT 529 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR HARDINSBURG...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25
MPH.

OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING...MODERATE RAIN WITH RAINFALL RATES OF AROUND
ONE HALF INCH PER HOUR REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN THREE
MILES...AND HALF INCH HAIL...ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* THIS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  HARDINSBURG...
  LODIBURG AND CLIFTON MILLS...
  WEBSTER AND UNION STAR...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3796 8650 3791 8629 3790 8628 3772 8646
      3775 8655
TIME...MOT...LOC 2231Z 203DEG 21KT 3775 8648

AMS

Special weather statement, Mar 23, 5:49 PM CDT, 0 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
549 PM CDT FRI MAR 23 2012

KYZ024-232315-
BRECKINRIDGE-
549 PM CDT FRI MAR 23 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...MODERATE RAIN...
HALF INCH HAIL...AND 40 MPH WINDS...

AT 547 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF LEITCHFIELD...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING...MODERATE RAIN WITH RAINFALL RATES OF AROUND
ONE HALF INCH PER HOUR REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN THREE
MILES...HALF INCH HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 35 TO 40 MPH...ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* THIS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  CAVE SPRING AND CENTERVIEW...
  MOOK AND SE REE...
  BURAS AND FAIRFIELD...
  LOCUST HILL AND HARNED...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3779 8640 3775 8618 3760 8627 3758 8631
      3759 8635 3756 8635 3757 8637 3756 8637
      3758 8639 3757 8640 3758 8642 3758 8646
      3759 8646
TIME...MOT...LOC 2249Z 203DEG 21KT 3761 8639

AMS

The office that day

Everything else NWS Louisville, KY issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Mar 23, 12:58 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LMK	Spencer	32 min
Mar 23, 1:18 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	LMK	Jefferson	27 min
Mar 23, 1:27 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	LMK	Jefferson, Shelby, Spencer	33 min
Mar 23, 2:00 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LMK	Henry	30 min
Mar 23, 2:30 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LMK	Trimble	30 min
Mar 23, 2:40 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	LMK	Trimble	5 min
Mar 23, 2:56 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LMK	Nelson	34 min
Mar 23, 5:31 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LMK	Breckinridge	29 min
Mar 23, 5:50 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Breckinridge	25 min
Mar 23, 6:23 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Breckinridge, Meade	14 min
Mar 23, 6:23 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Meade	37 min
Mar 23, 6:33 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LMK	Hardin	27 min
Mar 23, 6:43 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Breckinridge, Hardin, Meade	32 min
Mar 23, 5:54 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LMK	Clark, Floyd	36 min
Mar 23, 6:11 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LMK	Crawford	49 min
Mar 23, 6:55 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Crawford, Orange, Washington	17 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Kentucky, 2012 Every special weather statement in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.