Special Weather Statement, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
251 PM EDT SAT MAR 17 2012

.Short Term (Tonight through Sunday Night)...
Updated at 250 PM EDT Mar 17 2012

Temperatures this afternoon have risen into the mid to upper 70s
across the region with dewpoints in the low 60s. Instability has
been on this rise as well with LAPS analysis showing LI's of -6
across the western portion of the forecast area to -4 across the
eastern portion. It is even more unstable to the west of the
forecast area where a line of showers and thunderstorms has
developed. The latest radar scans show additional isolated showers
and thunderstorms popping up across the forecast area. The main line
of storms will continue to move northeast through the afternoon and
early evening across central Kentucky and southern Indiana. If the
storms are able to become strong enough they will be capable of
producing hail and possibly some strong winds, though hail will be
the main threat. This activity should wane this evening with the
loss of daytime heating.

Another shortwave will cross the area overnight. Models do indicate
that this will spark additional showers and thunderstorms late
tonight, so will continue to mention scattered precip through
tomorrow morning. Rain chances will diminish tomorrow afternoon as
the
ridge aloft begins to amplify. Sunday night looks to be the start of
a couple of days of dry weather.

Temperatures will continue to be warm. Lows Sunday and Monday
morning will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Highs tomorrow will
be in the lower 80s.

.Long Term (Monday - Saturday)...
Updated at 245 PM EDT Mar 17 2012

First half of the week will have an amplified upper pattern, with a
deep trof working into the Rockies and a strong ridge extending up
through the Great Lakes. Precip will be suppressed Mon-Tue as the
ridge amplifies over the Ohio Valley. Expect near-record heat both
Monday and Tuesday.

Current records and forecast temps for Mon/Tues:

               Mon(3/19)      Tues(3/20)
               Record/Forecast:
Louisville     83(1907)/84    85(1894)/83
Lexington      79(1945)/81    81(1894)/81
Bowling Green  86(1907)/84    85(1921)/82
Frankfort      81(1948)/82    82(1921)/83

By Wednesday the trof will move into the Plains, and the upper ridge
will retreat just far enough east to open us up for afternoon
thunderstorms again, with the highest POPs west of Interstate 65.
Unseasonable warmth will persist yet another day, but clouds and
maybe precip will limit temps to the mid/upper 70s.

Thu-Fri the models begin to diverge, as a closed upper low develops
and makes its way east into the Tennessee Valley by Friday night.
ECMWF is about 12 hrs faster than the latest GFS with this system.
Whenever this happens expect widespread precip under the difluent
upper flow ahead of the closed low. However, still not enough
confidence in the timing to go with a likely POP, so will carry a
high-end chance POP both Thursday and Friday. Temps will trend quite
a bit cooler, especially once we get under the upper low, but will
still be above normal. Clouds and moist southerly flow will keep min
temps well above climo, generally in the 50s.

Upper low finally edges to our east on Saturday, allowing us to dry
out from west to east. Tapered down to just a slight chance in the
east, with temps only slightly above normal. It is worth noting that
this is still a low-confidence forecast, as closed upper lows are
not always handled well by the models, and if anything the models
are too fast.

&&

.Aviation (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Updated at 1255 PM EDT Mar 17 2012

Scattered showers are just beginning to redevelop across the region
this afternoon with more thunderstorms across western Kentucky. With
the timing of thunderstorms affecting any particular TAF site still
in question, will continue with the mention of VCSH this afternoon
in the TAFs as well as keep in a CB group. The showers and storms
from this afternoon should subside this evening with the loss of
daytime heating. However, a shortwave crossing the region overnight
is expected to spark more precipitation. This looks to mainly affect
SDF late tonight. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
possible again tomorrow morning. With much uncertainty in the
forecast, have tried to keep the TAFs fairly general at this point
and will amend them as needed. Winds will be out of the south to SSW
through the period and less than 10 knots.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

Short Term.......EER
Long Term........RAS
Aviation.........EER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
348 PM EDT SAT MAR 17 2012

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-182000-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-
MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-
TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
348 PM EDT SAT MAR 17 2012 /248 PM CDT SAT MAR 17 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE REGION. HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
THE MAIN THREATS FROM THE STORMS...THOUGH STRONG WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS WELL. ALL THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY. ALL THUNDERSTORMS
PRODUCE LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. THE CHANCES AND TIMING OF ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL
DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...OR
FLOODING THROUGH SUNDAY.

EER/RAS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
439 PM EDT SAT MAR 17 2012

KYZ024-027-028-172130-
BRECKINRIDGE-GRAYSON-HARDIN-
339 PM CDT SAT MAR 17 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...HALF
INCH HAIL...AND 40 MPH WINDS...

AT 338 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 15 MILES WEST OF LEITCHFIELD...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN WITH RAINFALL RATES
OF AROUND ONE INCH PER HOUR REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN ONE
MILE...HALF INCH HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 35 TO 40 MPH...ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* THIS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  HARDINSBURG...
  VANZANT...
  HICKORY CORNER AND DEMPSTER...
  CONCORD...
  FALLING BRANCH AND CANNONS POINT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3756 8663 3755 8660 3754 8661 3755 8658
      3756 8658 3759 8662 3763 8664 3796 8637
      3771 8603 3743 8651 3755 8665
TIME...MOT...LOC 2039Z 228DEG 12KT 3755 8656

MJ