Severe Thunderstorm Warning 307, NWS Louisville, KY

575 
WWUS53 KLMK 030028
SVSLMK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
828 PM EDT MON JUL 2 2012

INC025-061-030050-
/O.CON.KLMK.SV.W.0307.000000T0000Z-120703T0050Z/
HARRISON IN-CRAWFORD IN-
828 PM EDT MON JUL 2 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 850 PM EDT
FOR EASTERN CRAWFORD AND WESTERN HARRISON COUNTIES...

AT 824 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR PILOT KNOB...AND WAS 
NEARLY STATIONARY. PENNY SIZE HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THESE DAMAGING 
WINDS...AS WELL AS TORRENTIAL RAIN.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT...
  PILOT KNOB...
  CAREFREE...
  WYANDOTTE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO MEDIA OR POST YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL 
WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE FACEBOOK PAGE OR TWITTER.

&&

LAT...LON 3830 8621 3817 8627 3825 8640 3833 8633
TIME...MOT...LOC 0027Z 212DEG 7KT 3829 8629
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 0.75IN

$$

13

325 
WWUS53 KLMK 030035
SVSLMK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
835 PM EDT MON JUL 2 2012

INC025-061-030045-
/O.CAN.KLMK.SV.W.0307.000000T0000Z-120703T0050Z/
HARRISON IN-CRAWFORD IN-
835 PM EDT MON JUL 2 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN CRAWFORD AND WESTERN
HARRISON COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE STORMS THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE WEAKENED AND ARE NO LONGER
SEVERE. HOWEVER STRONG STORMS REMAIN IN THE AREA. THESE ARE CAPABLE 
OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE MEDIA OR POST YOUR REPORT TO THE 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE FACEBOOK PAGE OR TWEET US.

LAT...LON 3830 8621 3817 8627 3825 8640 3833 8633
TIME...MOT...LOC 0035Z 212DEG 7KT 3830 8628

$$

13

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
755 PM EDT MON JUL 02 2012

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 753 PM EDT Mon Jul 2 2012

Updated the forecast to cancel the heat advisory early.  With
scattered to numerous convection over the area and multiple
outflows, heat indices have cooled below advisory levels.  Also
tweaked POPs to better reflect ongoing convection.  Expanded
scattered t-storm area a little farther northeast based on
convection firing along an outflow boundary moving northeast through
the Louisville area as of 2350Z.  We should continue to see
marginally severe storms with gusty winds/hail through the evening
hours.  In addition, storms will contain a lot of lightning and
produce copious amounts of rainfall.

&&

.Short Term (This Evening through Tuesday night)...
Issued at 320 PM EDT Mon July 2 2012

Main concern for this evening will deal with thunderstorm chances
and continued hot conditions. A look at the current visible
satellite imagery shows swelling Cu and a few showers and storms
popping up across the area. Best area of coverage is expected to be
west of I-65 where better moisture convergence has been ongoing all
day. This is in response to a weak surface low over the middle
Mississippi River Valley. A boundary of higher instability on the
order of 1500-2500 J/KG is evident where moisture has pooled. A few
of the strongest storms could go pulse severe, despite the lack of
any real wind profile. The main threats will be damaging winds and
large hail. Have upped coverage of thunderstorms to 40 percent
through the early evening hours as colliding outflow boundaries will
likely create a cluster of storms at times.

Also of concern, temperatures are currently running in the lower to
upper 90s. These temperatures combined with dew points in the mid to
upper 60s is creating heat indices in the 103 to 108 range in the
advisory area. Will leave this headline going through tonight. Will
not extend heat advisory into tomorrow as temperatures are expected
to be another couple of degrees cooler and convective chances could
really wreak havoc on a temperature forecast.

Tonight should see convection winding down in the late evening and
overnight periods. East of I-65, expect storms to die off a couple
of hours earlier as less moisture and instability will yield fewer
storms. Looking for lows in the upper 60s and lower 70s.

Tuesday should bring a return to scattered showers and thunderstorms
as environment will be uncapped with weakening ridge. With the
coverage of storms and more cloud cover, temperatures are expected
to be a little cooler, topping out in the mid and upper 90s. Will
keep the second half of Tuesday night dry with lows again in the
upper 60s and lower 70s.

.Long Term (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Mon Jul 2 2012

Center of the high pressure aloft will be more over the Mississippi
River Valley Wednesday, continuing to allow for at least slight
chances of storms as well as a little cooler thicknesses across our
region. By the end of the work week, that ridge looks to build back
into the Midwest, forcing the storm track more to our north. We may
still see some storms over the Appalachians as well, but our
forecast area looks to dry out and warm back up again for the
weekend. The next chance for rain looks to come Monday as models
continue to show troughing drop into south central Canada and
forcing the ridge more into the Central and southern Plains.

Do not see any reason right now not to keep highs well into the 90s
for most of the period. Monday would be the exception, as that
trough tries to get in here and lower thicknesses.  Have the
forecast going only to around 90 then.

&&

.Aviation (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 649 PM EDT Mon July 2 2012

The intense convection that had been plaguing BWG earlier has been
on a definite downward trend since about 22Z, and this is expected
to continue.  Once the TAF period starts at 00Z there should just be
some scattered remnants of the earlier activity, and those will fall
apart in the first two or three hours of the TAF period.  Overnight
skies will be partly cloudy with light and variable winds.  With all
the rain that fell this evening, we will go ahead and throw in some
MVFR BR for the early morning hours.  On Tuesday the morning will be
mostly clear, with scattered thunderstorms probably popping up again
in the afternoon.

At SDF the main concern is the gust front surging ahead of the BWG
convection.  Additional convection is bubbling up behind the gust
front and the atmosphere ahead of the front is warm and unstable, so
the thinking now is that the gust front will probably survive as far
as SDF.  Winds south of FTK were recorded gusting to 30 mph from the
WSW as the front moved through.  Will go with something similar to
this in the SDF TAF for right now...will also keep an eye on FTK obs
to see what they report and make any necessary last minute
adjustments.  Right now it looks like the gust front will reach SDF
around 00Z, and that will be fine tuned as the front approaches as
well.  Otherwise, after the sun sets winds will go light and
variable with partly cloudy skies.  Then tomorrow some scattered
afternoon convection is expected to develop once again.

LEX has the quietest weather with no convection or gust fronts
expected there.  Tonight will be mostly clear with light and
variable winds, and a few thunderstorms may develop tomorrow
afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

Update...........AMS
Short Term.......BJS
Long Term........RJS
Aviation.........13

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
800 PM EDT MON JUL 2 2012

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-040300-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-CRAWFORD IN-
PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-BRECKINRIDGE KY-
MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-JEFFERSON KY-
OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-SCOTT KY-
HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-
NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-
LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-
EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-
WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-
ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...SALEM...SCOTTSBURG...MADISON...
JASPER...MARENGO...TELL CITY...CORYDON...NEW ALBANY...
JEFFERSONVILLE...HAWESVILLE...HARDINSBURG...BRANDENBURG...
BEAVER DAM...LEITCHFIELD...ELIZABETHTOWN...FORT KNOX...
MOUNT WASHINGTON...SHEPHERDSVILLE...LOUISVILLE...LA GRANGE...
BEDFORD...NEW CASTLE...SHELBYVILLE...FRANKFORT...GEORGETOWN...
CYNTHIANA...TAYLORSVILLE...LAWRENCEBURG...VERSAILLES...LEXINGTON...
PARIS...CARLISLE...BARDSTOWN...SPRINGFIELD...HARRODSBURG...
NICHOLASVILLE...WINCHESTER...HODGENVILLE...LEBANON...DANVILLE...
LANCASTER...RICHMOND...MORGANTOWN...BROWNSVILLE...MUNFORDVILLE...
GREENSBURG...CAMPBELLSVILLE...LIBERTY...STANFORD...RUSSELLVILLE...
BOWLING GREEN...FRANKLIN...SCOTTSVILLE...GLASGOW...TOMPKINSVILLE...
EDMONTON...COLUMBIA...JAMESTOWN...BURKESVILLE...ALBANY
800 PM EDT MON JUL 2 2012 /700 PM CDT MON JUL 2 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE
EVENING HOURS MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF A SALEM INDIANA TO
LOUISVILLE TO DANVILLE KENTUCKY LINE. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS...HAIL...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON TUESDAY. STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREATS.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE BREAKING DOWN AND MOVING OUT OF THE OHIO
VALLEY EARLY ON IN THE UPCOMING WEEK...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL CONTAIN THE THREAT FOR
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO ONCE AGAIN RISE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
FROM THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS STRONG MID
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA. FUTURE HEAT
HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT INSTANCES OF DAMAGING WINDS AND
HAIL TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN LOUISVILLE.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE (ALL LOWER CASE).

BJS/AMS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
640 PM EDT MON JUL 02 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0555 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ROCHESTER               37.21N  86.89W
07/02/2012                   BUTLER             KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN ON HIGHWAY 70 NEAR ROCHESTER.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1200720

MRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
646 PM EDT MON JUL 02 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0625 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HESTAND                 36.65N  85.62W
07/02/2012                   MONROE             KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN ON HIGHWAY 163.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1200721

MRC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
651 PM EDT MON JUL 2 2012

KYC093-123-179-022320-
LARUE KY-NELSON KY-HARDIN KY-
651 PM EDT MON JUL 2 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...HALF
INCH HAIL...AND 40 MPH WINDS...

AT 647 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM ELIZABETHTOWN TO
HODGENVILLE...AND MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN WITH RAINFALL RATES
OF AROUND ONE INCH PER HOUR REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN ONE
MILE...HALF INCH HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 35 TO 40 MPH...ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

* THESE STORMS WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  HODGENVILLE...
  ELIZABETHTOWN...
  HOWARDSTOWN...
  ATHERTONVILLE AND ROANOKE...

THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT INTERSTATE 65 IN KENTUCKY BETWEEN MILE
MARKERS 86 AND 94.

THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN KENTUCKY (FORD) PARKWAY BETWEEN
MILE MARKERS 136 AND 137.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3750 8577 3765 8601 3776 8575 3760 8550
      3757 8551
TIME...MOT...LOC 2251Z 255DEG 8KT 3765 8584 3758 8565

AMS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
652 PM EDT MON JUL 02 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0627 PM     HAIL             5 E HESTAND             36.65N  85.53W
07/02/2012  E1.00 INCH       MONROE             KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL WEST OF VERNON.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1200722

MRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
658 PM EDT MON JUL 02 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0650 PM     HAIL             3 S ADYEVILLE           38.15N  86.78W
07/02/2012  M0.70 INCH       PERRY              IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DIME SIZE HAIL WAS COVERING THE GROUND.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1200723

SCHOETTMER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
746 PM EDT MON JUL 2 2012

KYC091-030030-
HANCOCK KY-
646 PM CDT MON JUL 2 2012

...THUNDERSTORM WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN AFFECTING NORTHERN HANCOCK
COUNTY...

AT 643 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR HAWESVILLE AND COVERING ALL OF NORTHERN
HANCOCK COUNTY...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ONLY 5 MPH.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN WITH RAINFALL RATES OF AROUND ONE
INCH PER...HALF INCH HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH...ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS STORM.

* THIS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  HAWESVILLE...
  CHAMBERS...
  LEWISPORT...
  SUNNY CORNER AND SKILLMAN...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING. EXPECT PONDING OF WATER ON LOCAL
ROADWAYS. DRIVERS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND TURN ON THEIR HEADLIGHTS IF
ENCOUNTERING HEAVY RAINS.

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3794 8697 3794 8691 3799 8686 3800 8682
      3790 8675 3789 8671 3791 8669 3788 8665
      3785 8666 3777 8682 3784 8686 3783 8690
      3784 8692 3788 8690 3790 8692 3789 8698
      3790 8699
TIME...MOT...LOC 2345Z 321DEG 6KT 3791 8681

13