Severe Thunderstorm Warning 246, NWS Louisville, KY

033 
WWUS53 KLMK 201817
SVSLMK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
117 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012

KYC001-087-099-169-201827-
/O.EXP.KLMK.SV.W.0246.000000T0000Z-120520T1815Z/
METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-GREEN KY-HART KY-
117 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN HART...
SOUTHWESTERN GREEN...WESTERN ADAIR AND NORTHERN METCALFE COUNTIES HAS
EXPIRED...

THE STORMS THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE WEAKENED AND ARE NO LONGER
SEVERE. HOWEVER STRONG STORMS REMAIN IN THE AREA. THESE ARE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...CALL TOLL
FREE AT...1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3698 8569 3709 8576 3711 8576 3712 8578
      3714 8578 3717 8575 3716 8581 3718 8583
      3729 8564 3711 8544
TIME...MOT...LOC 1752Z 324DEG 17KT 3716 8567

$$

RAS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
110 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 110 PM EDT Sat May 19 2012

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will increase in coverage by mid-
afternoon along a north south axis roughly along Interstate 65 across
south central Indiana and central Kentucky. These pulse-type storms
will not last long nor move very quickly. However, some of these
storms may produce gusty winds and small hail.

.Short Term (Today through Monday)...
Issued at 325 AM EDT May 20 2012

The area will continue to be under the influence of ridging aloft
and at the surface today. As with the past couple of days, the
question will be whether isolated showers/storms will develop. Will
continue with a dry forecast for now, though a few isolated
showers/thunderstorms cannot be completely ruled out. High
temperatures today will be a bit warmer than yesterday. Will go with
highs a couple of degrees above yesterday's. Thus, temps in the east
will top out in the mid 80s with upper 80s in the western portion of
the forecast area. Some spots will possibly reach 90.

We will get a break from the heat with a cold front that will move
through the area Monday. Showers and thunderstorms ahead of this
front will begin to move into the western portions of the forecast
area late tonight. Coverage of storms will be isolated to widely
scattered overnight. They should increase in coverage during the day
tomorrow. For now we will keep pops in the high chance category.
These storms are not expected to be severe. Lows tonight will be on
the warm side again, only dropping into the low to mid 60s. Monday's
highs will be a bit of a challenge and will depend somewhat on the
coverage of showers and thunderstorms. However, it will be much
cooler than today with upper 70s to lower 80s expected.

.Long Term (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 335 AM EDT Sun May 20 2012

Very impressive pattern change looks to occur over the next week as
a Rex-type block over the eastern US moves on out and gets replaced
by a rather anomalously large mid-level ridge while an equally large
trough settles over the western US.

Monday Night through Wednesday Night...

The latest models continue to agree with a weakening low pressure
system and associated surface cold front pushing eastward through
the region Monday night.  As this system moves off to the east, an
upper level trough will lag behind and eventually develop into a
cutoff low over the Mid-Atlantic states.  This blocky type pattern
looks to hold into Wednesday/Wednesday night until mid-level ridging
builds in from the west.  Scattered showers will be possible Monday
night as the front continues to head off to the east.  Drier
conditions look likely on Tuesday as the upper trough shifts
eastward and then becomes cutoff.  The upper low looks to form well
enough east of our region so that we will remain dry for the
Tuesday-Wednesday night period.  Temperatures through the period
look to be rather seasonal with highs on Tuesday in the mid-upper
70s and generally upper 70s on Wednesday.  Overnight lows look to be
in the 50s.

Thursday through Saturday Night...

By late next week, the multi-model consensus is showing better
forecast convergence with developing a rather large upper trough in
the western US.  As this trough develops, it will pop an unusually
large ridge downstream over the eastern US.  The latest GFS
solutions indicate that the heights may rise as much as 2 standard
deviations above climatological normals for late May.  Anything over
2 standard deviations is usually quite significant.  The latest
20/00Z Euro solution in pretty good agreement here too with
developing a 594+ DM ridge over the mid-Mississippi Valley by late
week.  Given the relatively good model agreement here, it does
appear that an late spring heat wave may develop just in time for
the upcoming Memorial Day weekend.  The raw model and ensemble
probabilistic forecasts all agree with temperatures warming into the
mid-upper 80s for Thursday and Friday with lower 90s being possible
for Saturday.  Given the recent dry periods of late and combined
with the anticipated upper level pattern evolving, it does seem very
reasonable to see temperatures spike up next weekend to possibly
near record highs.

&&

.Aviation (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Updated at 110 PM EDT May 20 2012

With high pressure directly overhead, light and variable winds are
expected this afternoon with calm winds expected tonight. Isolated
thunderstorms will develop this afternoon with less than 20 percent
coverage expected. Due to the sparse nature of any convection, with
keep VCTS out of any specific TAF. SDF actually will have the
greatest chance of having a thunderstorms in its vicinity from 18
through 21z.

Scattered cumulus clouds with bases around 5k feet will clear this
evening.

A cold front will begin to approach the area after midnight
tonight. Isolated thunderstorms may affect TAF sites during the
pre-dawn hours. However, storms are expected to become more numerous
after 15z Monday. Will place VCTS in TAF sites then.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

Update...........JSD
Short Term.......EER
Long Term........MJ
Aviation.........JSD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1250 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-211830-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-CRAWFORD IN-
PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-BRECKINRIDGE KY-
MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-JEFFERSON KY-
OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-SCOTT KY-
HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-
NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-
LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-
EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-
WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-
ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...SALEM...SCOTTSBURG...MADISON...
JASPER...MARENGO...TELL CITY...CORYDON...NEW ALBANY...
JEFFERSONVILLE...HAWESVILLE...HARDINSBURG...BRANDENBURG...
BEAVER DAM...LEITCHFIELD...ELIZABETHTOWN...FORT KNOX...
MOUNT WASHINGTON...SHEPHERDSVILLE...LOUISVILLE...LA GRANGE...
BEDFORD...NEW CASTLE...SHELBYVILLE...FRANKFORT...GEORGETOWN...
CYNTHIANA...TAYLORSVILLE...LAWRENCEBURG...VERSAILLES...LEXINGTON...
PARIS...CARLISLE...BARDSTOWN...SPRINGFIELD...HARRODSBURG...
NICHOLASVILLE...WINCHESTER...HODGENVILLE...LEBANON...DANVILLE...
LANCASTER...RICHMOND...MORGANTOWN...BROWNSVILLE...MUNFORDVILLE...
GREENSBURG...CAMPBELLSVILLE...LIBERTY...STANFORD...RUSSELLVILLE...
BOWLING GREEN...FRANKLIN...SCOTTSVILLE...GLASGOW...TOMPKINSVILLE...
EDMONTON...COLUMBIA...JAMESTOWN...BURKESVILLE...ALBANY
1250 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012 /1150 AM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH STORM COVERAGE WILL BE SPARCE...A COUPLE OF THE STRONGER
STORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL...BRIEF GUSTY WINDS...OCCASIONAL CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA AND WEST CENTRAL KENTUCKY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY RAINS...GUSTY WINDS AND CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS...AND CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

JSD/MJ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
135 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

KYZ063-064-074-076-201800-
BARREN-GREEN-HART-METCALF-
1235 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...HALF
INCH HAIL...AND 40 MPH WINDS MOVING SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN HART AND
INTO NORTHERN METCALFE COUNTIES...

AT 1230 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES EAST OF MUNFORDVILLE...AND MOVING SOUTH
AT 15 MPH.

OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...HALF INCH HAIL...AND GUSTY
WINDS OF AROUND 35 TO 45 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* THIS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  MUNFORDVILLE...
  UNO AND WHICKERVILLE...
  LEGRANDE...
  SEYMOUR AND THREE SPRINGS...
  PARK AND CENTER...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3710 8561 3712 8590 3734 8591 3732 8566
TIME...MOT...LOC 1734Z 000DEG 13KT 3722 8577

JSD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
148 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

KYZ063-201815-
HART-
1248 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...PENNY
SIZE HAIL...AND 40 MPH WINDS IS SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH IN NORTHERN HART
COUNTY JUST TO THE EAST OF PRICEVILLE...

AT 1242 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES NORTH OF MUNFORDVILLE...AND MOVING
SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND GUSTY
WINDS OF AROUND 35 TO 45 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* THIS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  MACON...
  LEITCHFIELD CROSSING AND MOUNT BEULAH...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3731 8604 3739 8604 3739 8602 3740 8604
      3745 8603 3744 8586 3734 8586 3727 8591
TIME...MOT...LOC 1747Z 000DEG 6KT 3736 8592

JSD