Frost Advisory 6, NWS Louisville, KY

Clark County, IN, Crawford County, IN, Dubois County, IN, Floyd County, IN, Harrison County, IN, Jefferson County, IN, Orange County, IN, Perry County, IN, Scott County, IN, Washington County, IN, Adair County, KY, Allen County, KY, Anderson County, KY, Barren County, KY, Bourbon County, KY, Boyle County, KY, Breckinridge County, KY, Bullitt County, KY, Butler County, KY, Casey County, KY, Clark County, KY, Clinton County, KY, Cumberland County, KY, Edmonson County, KY, Fayette County, KY, Franklin County, KY, Garrard County, KY, Grayson County, KY, Green County, KY, Hancock County, KY, Hardin County, KY, Harrison County, KY, Hart County, KY, Henry County, KY, Jefferson County, KY, Jessamine County, KY, Larue County, KY, Lincoln County, KY, Logan County, KY, Madison County, KY, Marion County, KY, Meade County, KY, Mercer County, KY, Metcalfe County, KY, Monroe County, KY, Nelson County, KY, Nicholas County, KY, Ohio County, KY, Oldham County, KY, Russell County, KY, Scott County, KY, Shelby County, KY, Simpson County, KY, Spencer County, KY, Taylor County, KY, Trimble County, KY, Warren County, KY, Washington County, KY, Woodford County, KY

506 
WWUS73 KLMK 090344
NPWLMK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1144 PM EDT MON OCT 8 2012

...FROST EXPECTED TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS RURAL LOCATIONS AND
OPEN FIELDS...

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-091145-
/O.CON.KLMK.FR.Y.0006.121009T0800Z-121009T1300Z/
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-
MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-
TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...SALEM...SCOTTSBURG...MADISON...
JASPER...MARENGO...TELL CITY...CORYDON...NEW ALBANY...
JEFFERSONVILLE...HAWESVILLE...HARDINSBURG...BRANDENBURG...
BEAVER DAM...LEITCHFIELD...ELIZABETHTOWN...FORT KNOX...
MOUNT WASHINGTON...SHEPHERDSVILLE...LOUISVILLE...LA GRANGE...
BEDFORD...NEW CASTLE...SHELBYVILLE...FRANKFORT...GEORGETOWN...
CYNTHIANA...TAYLORSVILLE...LAWRENCEBURG...VERSAILLES...
LEXINGTON...PARIS...CARLISLE...BARDSTOWN...SPRINGFIELD...
HARRODSBURG...NICHOLASVILLE...WINCHESTER...HODGENVILLE...
LEBANON...DANVILLE...LANCASTER...RICHMOND...MORGANTOWN...
BROWNSVILLE...MUNFORDVILLE...GREENSBURG...CAMPBELLSVILLE...
LIBERTY...STANFORD...RUSSELLVILLE...BOWLING GREEN...FRANKLIN...
SCOTTSVILLE...GLASGOW...TOMPKINSVILLE...EDMONTON...COLUMBIA...
JAMESTOWN...BURKESVILLE...ALBANY
1144 PM EDT MON OCT 8 2012 /1044 PM CDT MON OCT 8 2012/

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM EDT /3 AM CDT/ TO
9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ TUESDAY...

* FROST WILL DEVELOP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND BECOME 
  RATHER WIDESPREAD IN MOST VALLEYS PRIOR TO DAWN. THIS FROST 
  WILL LINGER THROUGH ABOUT AN HOUR PAST SUNRISE. LOW 
  TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 33 AND 36 ARE EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH SOME 
  COLDER LOCATIONS MAY BRIEFLY DIP TO 32 DEGREES. 

* SENSITIVE VEGETATION...FRUIT...AND FLOWERS COULD BE DAMAGED BY 
  THE EXPECTED FROST. STEPS SHOULD BE TAKEN TO PROTECT ANY 
  SENSITIVE OUTDOOR VEGETATION. 

&&

$$

RAS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1254 PM EDT MON OCT 08 2012

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.Short Term (Today through Tuesday)...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Mon Oct 8 2012

Radar returns starting to show up along the KY/TN border as we are
picking up virga out of a high cloud deck. Upper-level impulse
scooting quickly east across the Tennessee Valley will keep quite a
bit of cirrus over us until mid-morning, but any other sensible
weather impact will be limited to a few sprinkles across
south-central Kentucky.

The cloud cover has thrown quite a wrench into frost potential
overnight, as temps have thus far failed to drop as advertised in
our previous forecast. However, several sites across the Bluegrass
and southern Indiana are in the upper 30s as of 06Z. SDF also found
just enough of a break to drop to 40F in between hourly obs that
came in at 44. Therefore, with that and the potential for some
clearing right around sunrise, will maintain the current Frost
Advisory along and north of the WK/Bluegrass Parkways.

Next challenge hinges on frost potential tonight heading into
Tuesday morning. Tonight will be the most favorable radiational
cooling night yet, so many locations will be as cold or colder
Tuesday morning than they get this morning. Expect at least patchy
frost across a good portion of southern Indiana and central
Kentucky.  However, this is a sufficiently marginal event that we
will hold off on any advisories in order to avoid confusion with
multiple headlines. Best chances for frost will still be in the
traditional cold spots, including valleys and rural portions of the
Bluegrass and southern Indiana. Heat island effects in the
Louisville Metro will create at least an 8-10 degree spread in min
temps across the area.

Otherwise high and dry, with daytime temps about 5 degrees warmer
each day. Tuesday will feature a bit of a breeze and a quick
late-morning jump in both temps and dewpoints as return flow breaks
a sharp nocturnal inversion.

.Long Term (Tuesday Night- Sunday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Mon Oct 8 2012

The active pattern of fronts continues in the long term. A cold
front will begin to move through the area late Tuesday night and be
through the forecast area by mid day Wednesday. Moisture with this
system continues to look meager. Soundings show precipitable water
values barely making it to 0.9 inches. There is still a chance for
showers, with the best chance across southern Indiana. However,
models continue to trend drier with this system so will lower the
max pops to 30%. This rain will exit the area to the east by
Wednesday afternoon and high pressure will quickly shift across the
lower Ohio Valley Wednesday through Thursday.

The next low pressure system will develop over the Plains late this
week. A boundary will set up just south of the region Thursday
night/Friday with overrunning precipitation spreading into central
Kentucky and southern Indiana Thursday night into Friday. Friday
night into Saturday winds will shift to southerly as a warm front
moves through, leaving the area in the warm sector before the cold
front moves through Saturday night into Sunday. There will be much
better moisture associated with this system as well as better
dynamics, so will continue to mention thunderstorms Saturday night
and Sunday.

Temperatures will remain below normal through the first half of
the long term with highs in the mid to upper 60s. The coldest
morning will be Thursday when temps will drop into the upper 30s to
lower 40s. Some patchy frost may be possible. Saturday will be much
warmer with highs up into the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.Aviation (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 115 PM EDT Mon Oct 8 2012

Skies will clear at LEX and BWG at or shortly before the TAF
issuance time of 18z. Clear skies will prevail overnight and
Tuesday.

VFR flying conditions expected overnight with no real threat of fog
at either LEX or BWG. Calm winds this evening will stay quite light
overnight. During the day on Tuesday, very light south winds in the
morning will increase to 5 to 7kt from the south by early afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

Short Term.......EER
Long Term........RAS
Aviation.........JSD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1210 PM EDT MON OCT 8 2012

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-091530-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-
MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-
TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
1210 PM EDT MON OCT 8 2012 /1110 AM CDT MON OCT 8 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS...BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...AND
DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE.

JSD/EER