Areal Flood Warning 2, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
959 AM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 958 AM EDT Tue May 29 2012

Training thunderstorms continue across the forecast area this
morning, though they are beginning to weaken from Louisville to the
north. Further south, strong storms with very heavy rains continue.
Went ahead and increased pops once again as the storms have
continued to develop further south. Training of storms has produced
flash flooding in Louisville and may do so in other flood prone
locations to the south where storms continue to train over the area.
In addition, decreased high temps a bit in the northwest where
clouds and precip are the heaviest now.

Issued at 800 AM EDT Tue May 29 2012

A large complex of thunderstorms has developed over north central
Kentucky and portions of southern Indiana. These storms contain very
heavy rain and wind gusts up to 50 mph. This complex of storms will
move slowly to the northeast. Recent radar scans show more
development behind this initial cluster will bring additional heavy
rain to the area. Behind all of this the convection is more
scattered just ahead of the front. Therefore have updated the
forecast to account for the ongoing convection. As this passes, have
kept the rain forecast more scattered for this afternoon in the
west, but increased rain chances to likely in east central Kentucky
where the atmosphere is less worked over.

.Short Term (Today through Wednesday)...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Tue May 29 2012

A cold front currently stretched southwestward from the Great Lakes
region to Oklahoma continues to approach the our area from the west.
A concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms have developed
along and ahead of this front, with a narrow area of generally
isolated convection developing around our north and northwest CWA at
this time. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will increase as the
front moves across the forecast area today. As the front moves east
into the Bluegrass region, there may be a chance for some stronger
storms during the afternoon hours if that area receives enough
heating. These storms could produce gusty winds and hail. However,
some guidance suggests showers and thunderstorms could develop a
little earlier this morning, which would reduce the slightly
stronger afternoon storm potential.

Either way, the storms should move out of the area from west to east
during the late afternoon and early evening hours. Precip amounts do
not appear too impressive, with an average of only 2-3 tenths of an
inch possible. This system has not and still does not appear to be
the widespread rain maker we really could use. High pressure
building in behind the front will provide clearing skies and dry
conditions tonight through Wednesday.

As mentioned in the previous AFD, temperatures will be a tricky
forecast today, given likely variations in cloud cover and precip
coverage. However, latest model consensus still indicates mid and
upper 80s remain a good bet. With a dry and cooler air mass building
over the region tonight, lows will be cooler, dropping into the
upper 50s and lower 60s. There could be some patchy fog overnight,
particularly across our southeast CWA where it might take a little
longer to dry out. So, have added this to the forecast. Wednesday is
shaping up to be a great day, with generally light northerly winds,
lower humidity, mostly sunny skies, and highs topping out in the
upper 70s to lower 80s across the north, with mid-upper 80s across
the south.

.Long Term (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Tue May 29 2012

Period will transition from a quiet Wednesday to a more active end
of the week as an upper trough, now over the Pacific northwest
states, moves into the Northern Plains Wednesday night. The models
each handle the development of a surface low ahead of this feature
differently, but the consensus has something developing roughly
centered near the Ozarks Thursday morning. By that afternoon, this
surface low is forced quickly northeast in the latest UKMET, GFS,
NAM, and the 28/12Z EC, dragging a cold front into extreme western
Kentucky. Expect a good shot at rain here, either from this band of
storms or from the warm front extending out ahead of the surface
low.

By Friday morning, only the 28/12Z EC has the front through the
region. The GFS and the more outlier GEM not mentioned above, as
well as the SREF and GFDL all hang it around the area through
Friday. Previous forecast kept in some rain chances through the day
Friday, and the AllBlend comes up with similar numbers. Depending on
the time of the day and how far east this front progresses, we may
be able to see some severe storms develop ahead of the front. The
proximity to both fronts and the strength of the system could allow
for an isolated tornado to develop along with the other severe
weather threats.

After the front moves through on Friday, the weekend looks below
normal for temperatures with high pressure building into the region
Saturday but clouds hanging in their as the forcing upper low
continues to affect us from its center over southeast Ontario.
Sunday should be closer to normal, with more of a southerly flow.
More of a concern here would be the northwest flow aloft, notorious
for bringing in difficult to forecast storm systems. Monday should
continue the warmup as the ridge that is responsible for that
northwest flow gets closer to our region.

&&

.Aviation (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Updated at 658 AM EDT Tue May 29 2012

A cold front is approaching from the northwest, with several outflow
boundaries ahead of it sparking new convection. Current
thunderstorms northwest of SDF will shift northeast, likely to
remain just VCTS. Cells to the southwest of SDF may track directly
over the airfield within the hour. Expect scattered showers and
thunderstorms to continue as the front pushes east, with increasing
activity for BWG and LEX as the morning progresses. Still expecting
VFR conditions through the forecast period, but could experience
brief lower vis if a thunderstorm moves directly over an airfield
along with localized wind gusts up to around 40 knots. Otherwise,
winds will remain northwest at SDF, while winds will shift from
southwest to northwest at BWG and LEX as the outflow boundary and
front passes through. High pressure building in behind the front
will provide clearing skies and dry conditions for the rest of the
period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

Update...........EER
Short Term.......MJP
Long Term........RJS
Aviation.........MJP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
818 AM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-301230-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-
MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-
TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
818 AM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 /718 AM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. BRIEF HIGH WIND GUSTS...SMALL
HAIL...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
ALL STORMS PRODUCE DANGEROUS LIGHTNING. SOME PONDING OF WATER MAY
OCCUR ON ROADWAYS WHERE MULTIPLE STORMS MOVE OVER THE SAME AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE LATEST FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT A BETTER CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXISTS FOR THE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON TIME PERIOD. AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG WEATHER
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE WEST AND
THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
OUTLOOK AREA. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EVENTUAL
EVOLUTION OF THIS WEATHER SYSTEM. THEREFORE...STAY TUNED TO
FORECASTS THIS WEEK FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

MJP/RJS/EER

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