Special Weather Statement, NWS Elko, NV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
855 AM PDT TUE AUG 21 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG SURGE OF MONSOON MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH AN
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
ELKO...WHITE PINE...NYE AND EUREKA COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME STORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS MAINLY IN WHITE PINE AND NYE COUNTIES ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...AN ACTIVE DAY OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
AROUND NOON. AFTER A QUICK LOOK AT THE NEW 12Z NAM...DECIDED TO
EXPAND INHERITED FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE SE ELKO COUNTY AND
NE NYE COUNTY. ALSO...PULLED POP GRIDS WESTWARD. NAM/GFS BOTH
SUGGEST STORMS WILL INITIATE IN/NEAR LANDER COUNTY BY AROUND NOON.
STRONG STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL...OUTFLOW WINDS TO 50 MPH...AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ARE LIKELY...AND THIS ENHANCED WORDING WAS
PLACED BACK IN THE GRIDS AND TEXT PRODUCTS. NEW 12Z GFS PLACES ITS
INSTABILITY AXIS ALONG A JARBIDGE-ELKO-EUREKA-ELY LINE BY 5
PM...AND THIS IS WHERE SOME OF THE STRONGEST CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT AT LEAST A FEW STORMS WILL
APPROACH/REACH SEVERE CRITERIA.   BT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 309 AM /

SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA TODAY AND INTO THE EVENING. A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WHITE PINE COUNTY. SOME OF THESE
STORMS WILL PRODUCE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. MORE THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED IN NORTHERN NYE AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY.

SHORT TERM...THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS BRINGING SOME IMPRESSIVE
CONVECTIVE SIGNATURES INTO CENTRAL NEVADA TODAY. LETS START WITH
WIDESPREAD VALUES OF -6 TO -7 LIS BY 18Z TODAY COINCIDENT WITH
WIDESPREAD +1000 J/KG OF CAPE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ON EVERY
SOUNDING EAST OF HUMBOLDT COUNTY IN THE LKN CWA. PWS ARE EQUALLY
IMPRESSIVE...WITH A SWATH OF .75 TO 1.10 AN INCH FROM JACKPOT TO
TONOPAH...YIELDING MOISTURE ANOMALIES GREATER THAN TWO STANDARD
DEVIATIONS OVER WHITE PINE COUNTY. CLIMATE-WISE...THESE VALUES EDGE
ELY NEAR THE 99 PERCENTILE. MOREOVER...WITH THE MODELS PROGGING
CORFIDI VECTORS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS...IMPRESSIVE EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL
TEMPERATURES...K-INDICES OF 35 TO 40 OVER WHITE PINE...AND THE
PATTERN BEING RIPE FOR TRAINING...ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
WHITE PINE COUNTY. ALONG WITH SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS...
EXPECTING SOME STRONG GUSTS AND MICROBURSTS POSSIBLE TODAY OVER
ELKO...WHITE PINE AND EASTERN NORTHERN NYE. ALL EYES WILL BE ON THE
RADAR TODAY...STAY TUNED FOR MORE INFORMATION. WEDNESDAY WILL BE
MUCH DRIER OVERALL...HOWEVER...ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED TSRA
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE LKN CWA.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. SOME AGREEMENT
EXISTS WITH THE GFS AND EUROPEAN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. BOTH
MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME INSTABILITY AND RESIDUAL MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER SOUTHEASTERN WHITE PINE COUNTY THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF LIQUID BUT KEPT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. SOME AFTERNOON BREEZES POSSIBLE
IN THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF ELKO COUNTY FRIDAY...AND AT THIS TIME IT
APPEARS SPEEDS WILL BE BELOW FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS. AFTERNOON
HIGHS FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.

BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON THE CENTRAL NV CONVERGENCE ZONE SETS UP IN
SOUTHERN LANDER/EUREKA...WHITE PINE...AND NORTHERN NYE COUNTIES.
HAVE INTRODUCED VERY ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS TIME FRAME.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE AROUND 0.50 TO 0.60 INCHES IN THIS
AREA AND THE ATMOSPHERE SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE. COULD SEE A FEW AFTERNOON
BREEZES HERE AND THERE...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODELS ARE OUT OF SYNC WITH THE NEXT WEATHER
MAKER. ALTHOUGH THE SOLUTIONS DEPICT SOME TYPE OF SYSTEM OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...THERE ARE STRENGTH AND TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH
THE HANDLING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

AVIATION...MOISTURE WILL MOVE NORTH INTO THE FORECAST
AREA...PROVIDING THE IMPETUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS. DISTANT LIGHTNING
ALREADY SEEN AT KTPH THIS MORNING AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS ARE EXPECTED AT KELY...KTPH...AND...TO A
LESSER DEGREE...KEKO. WITH THESE STORMS...CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS TO
50KT ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO OUTFLOWS...AS WELL AS BLOWING DUST...BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL. MVFR/IFR VSBY AND CIGS POSSIBLE IN THE
HEAVIEST DOWNPOURS. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY S-SW10-15G20-25KT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

FIRE WEATHER...ALL THE INGREDIENTS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE SILVER STATE. EXPECT
ANY THING FROM HAIL...TO STRONG OUTFLOWS TO NEW STARTS. A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR 455 FOR TODAY AND THIS EVENING...
AT THE VERY LEAST...WETTING RAINS POSSIBLE.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NORTHEASTERN NYE
COUNTY...SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY...SOUTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY...
WHITE PINE COUNTY.

&&

99/99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
133 AM PDT TUE AUG 21 2012

NVZ031-033>041-220845-
NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY-SOUTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY-
RUBY MOUNTAINS/EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE-WHITE PINE COUNTY-
NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND NORTHERN EUREKA COUNTY-
SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY-
SOUTHWESTERN ELKO COUNTY-SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY-
NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY-NORTHEASTERN NYE COUNTY-
133 AM PDT TUE AUG 21 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
NEVADA...NORTH CENTRAL NEVADA...NORTHEAST NEVADA AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NEVADA.

.DAY ONE...THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT.

DEEP MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH INSTABILITY AND LIFT TO PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF NORTHERN NEVADA
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. STORM MOTION WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST TO BEGIN THE DAY. THE THREATS FROM TODAY'S STORMS WILL
BE HEAVY RAIN...STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 45 TO 55 MPH...AND CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE STRONG...AND COULD
PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH.

ALTHOUGH LOCALIZED FLOODING IS A CONCERN FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN
NEVADA TODAY...A HEIGHTENED RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING EXISTS IN
WHITE PINE COUNTY. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR
STORMS TO MOVE OVER OR DEVELOP OVER THE SAME AREAS HAS LEAD TO THE
ISSUANCE OF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH TODAY FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM FOR THIS AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

LOOK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE MAINLY OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY...WITH ACTIVITY
DIMINISHING IN AREAL COVERAGE THURSDAY AS MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO REPORT WEATHER PHENOMENA ACCORDING TO
STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURE.

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