Special Weather Statement, NWS Elko, NV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
324 PM PDT THU JUL 5 2012

.SYNOPSIS...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY WARM...APPROACHING 100
DEGREES IN SOME LOCATIONS SUNDAY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. ACTIVE ON RADAR THIS
AFTERNOON. LIGHTNING FIRST INITIATED OVER NORTHERN NYE COUNTY
AFTER NOON AND IS PREDOMINANTLY CONFINED TO THAT COUNTY AND WHITE
PINE COUNTY THUS FAR. PEA-SIZE HAIL CONFIRMED OVER SOUTHERN WHITE
PINE COUNTY ABOUT 230 PM PDT. SEVERAL STRIKES THUS FAR OVER
NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY AND A COUPLE STRIKES NOTED OVER SOUTHERN
LANDER AND EUREKA COUNTIES AS STORMS BEGIN TO BACK-BUILD. MOSTLY
CLEAR OVER HUMBOLDT COUNTY AS OF 3 PM. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A DEFINED LINE OF CLOUDS STRETCHING FROM WILDHORSE IN ELKO
COUNTY SOUTHWEST TO GABBS IN NORTHERN NYE COUNTY. THE MONSOON FLOW
IS FOR REAL AND IS INCREASING IN COVERAGE EACH MODEL RUN.

SURELY EACH DAY WILL BE A DIFFERENT STORY BUT ESSENTIALLY ALL OF
EASTERN NEVADA AND ALONG THE HIGHWAY 50 CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL
LIGHT UP WITH THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. COVERAGE WILL VARY EACH DAY. OTHER THAN THAT...VERY WARM
DAYS WITH MILD NIGHTS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE PERIOD WILL
COMMENCE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER NORTHERN/CENTRAL NEVADA WITH
SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW ALOFT. THIS PATTERN WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO A
HIGHER PW ENVIRONMENT. RELATIVE TO HIGH DESERT STANDARDS...A SOUPY
AIR-MASS WILL BE ON TAP FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD...WITH PWS SURGING OVER
.75 OF AN INCH MULTIPLE DAYS IN A ROW. THE EC AND THE GFS ARE IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL PATTERN. CONVECTION WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND PULSE-LIKE. PROGGED SKEW-T SOUNDING ARE
PROJECTING BASES BETWEEN 600MB TO 520MB. LITTLE...IF ANY QPF...WILL
HIT THE GROUND.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
STRONG OUTFLOWS ARE POSSIBLE. THE RADAR IS CURRENTLY BEING MONITORED
FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR THE TAF SITES. AT THIS TIME...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
EASTERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AND POSSIBLY MOST OF NEXT WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERS NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA OF THE COUNTRY. A MIX OF WET
AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

92/97/97/92

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
335 PM PDT THU JUL 5 2012

NVZ031-052315-
NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY NV-
335 PM PDT THU JUL 5 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY UNTIL 415 PM
PDT...

AT 332 PM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 11 MILES NORTHWEST
OF CONTACT TO 19 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GIBBS RANCH...AND MOVING
EAST AT 10 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
   CONTACT AND US 93...

&&

LAT...LON 4191 11452 4145 11434 4138 11504 4195 11490
TIME...MOT...LOC 2235Z 303DEG 8KT 4191 11486 4141 11490

PJS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
347 PM PDT THU JUL 5 2012

NVZ031-052315-
NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY NV-
347 PM PDT THU JUL 5 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY UNTIL 415 PM
PDT...

AT 342 PM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 16 MILES SOUTH OF CONTACT...MOVING EAST AT 10
MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND PEA SIZED HAIL.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  BETWEEN WELLS AND CONTACT ALONG US HIGHWAY 93

&&

LAT...LON 4162 11466 4143 11466 4151 11490 4159 11491
TIME...MOT...LOC 2245Z 275DEG 7KT 4155 11485

JRM/86

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
413 PM PDT THU JUL 5 2012

NVZ031-052345-
NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY NV-
413 PM PDT THU JUL 5 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY UNTIL 445 PM
PDT...

AT 409 PM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 20 MILES NORTHEAST OF WELLS...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAIN...PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  RURAL CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY...
  RURAL EASTERN ELKO COUNTY...

&&

LAT...LON 4135 11459 4122 11475 4139 11487 4145 11480
TIME...MOT...LOC 2312Z 312DEG 15KT 4137 11475

JRM/86

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