Special Marine Warning 252, NWS New Orleans, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
317 PM CDT TUE JUL 3 2012

.SHORT TERM...
ONCE AGAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA...ON THE LA/MS BORDER AS WELL AS ALONG SEA
BREEZE ON MUCH OF OUR COASTLINE. GENERAL MOVEMENT SHOULD BE A
GRADUAL DRIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST BUT DEVIATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INFLUENCES. AS WITH PREVIOUS DAYS...CONVECTION
LIKELY TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY WITH TIME AND CONTINUED DAYTIME
HEATING. THIS MORNING/S SOUNDING WAS SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE WITH JUST
A LITTLE MORE MID LEVEL MOISTURE BUT THINK THERE/S STILL ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP. WITH
THE WETBULB ABOUT A THOUSAND FEET HIGHER THAN YSTRDY...PROB BE
HARDER TO GET NICKEL HAIL LIKE YESTERDAY BUT NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. SO MOSTLY SMALL HAIL AND GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH SHOULD BE
WHATS EXPECTED WITH STRONGER STORMS. DIURNAL CONCLUSION OF ACTIVITY
TO ENSUE WITH SUNSET. SHOWERS LIKELY TO REDEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. MAV DID SUGGEST A FEW INLAND SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. THOUGH
COMING IN AT 30 PCT...DIDN/T WANT TO COMPLETELY IGNORE IT BUT NOT
HAVE POPS THAT HIGH EITHER.

.LONG TERM...
INDEPENDENCE DAY SHOW NO SIGNS OF BEING MUCH DIFFERENT THAN TODAY.
MODELS KEEP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GENERALLY OVER THE CENTRAL US BY
SHIFTING EAST THEN EVENTUALLY RETROGRADING BACK WEST. WITH SOUTHEAST
LA BEING ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS HIGH...WE WILL CONTINUE
TO HAVE THAT LOWER END CHANCE OF AFTERNOON STORMS THIS WEEK. MOVING
TOWARDS THE END OF THIS WEEK HAVE INCREASED POPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
TO THE 40-50 PCT RANGE. AS ECMWF CONTINUING TO COME AROUND TO GFS/S
SOLUTION OF GULF COAST ON WEAKER SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE BUT FOR
DIFFERENT REASONS. ECMWF SUGGESTS AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE AREA WHILE THE RIDGE SHIFTS WEST. GFS IS JUST FASTER WITH
THE UPPER HIGH RETROGRESSION BACK WEST WHICH ALLOWS WEAKNESS TO BE
OVER THE AREA SOONER. EITHER WAY...IF ONE OF THE 2 SCENARIOS HAPPENS
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING. WETTER PATTERN LIKELY TO PERSIST
INTO NEXT WEEK. ITS A GOOD THING DUE TO DROUGHTLIKE CONDITIONS
SNEAKING BACK INTO THE AREA.

FOR TEMPERATURES...WILL REMAIN ON THE WARMER SIDE OF NORMAL TEMPS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

MEFFER
&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOULD DIMINISH BY
03Z...WITH A FEW STORMS PRODUCING GUSTS TO AROUND 40 KT. OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...MOST TERMINALS SHOULD PREVAIL VFR. 21

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSIST ACROSS THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE
NEXT 5 DAYS AS WESTERN PORTION OF THE ATLANTIC SURFACE EXTENDS INTO
THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GENERALLY
SUPPORT WINDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...YELLOW.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...MONITORING STORMS AND ISSUING A FEW SVR WARNINGS.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR AND/OR
         DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  71  96  72  94 /  10  30  20  30
BTR  74  96  76  95 /  10  30  20  20
ASD  74  94  74  93 /  10  30  20  20
MSY  77  93  77  92 /  10  30  20  20
GPT  76  92  76  92 /  10  30  20  30
PQL  73  94  74  93 /  10  30  20  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
716 PM CDT TUE JUL 3 2012

GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577-LAZ034>037-
039-040-046>050-056>072-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-050030-
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
LAKE BORGNE-CHANDELEUR SOUND-BRETON SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO
60 NM-POINTE COUPEE-WEST FELICIANA-EAST FELICIANA-ST. HELENA-
WASHINGTON-ST. TAMMANY-IBERVILLE-WEST BATON ROUGE-
EAST BATON ROUGE-ASCENSION-LIVINGSTON-ASSUMPTION-ST. JAMES-
ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-UPPER LAFOURCHE-ST. CHARLES-UPPER JEFFERSON-
ORLEANS-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST. BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-
LOWER TERREBONNE-LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER JEFFERSON-
LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST. BERNARD-NORTHERN TANGIPAHOA-
SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA-WILKINSON-AMITE-PIKE-WALTHALL-PEARL RIVER-
HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON-
716 PM CDT TUE JUL 3 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA...SOUTH MISSISSIPPI AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING.
A FEW STRONG AND POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THE MAIN THREATS ARE GUSTY AND DAMAGING WINDS...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND SMALL HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY. A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR EACH
DAY...BUT ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

HEAT INDEX VALUES ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA WILL PEAK
IN THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY WITH ACTUAL HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MID 90S
EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

CAB

LAZ050-040015-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
616 PM CDT TUE JUL 3 2012

...CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NEARLY STATIONARY AFFECTING
LIVINGSTON PARISH...

AT 612 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS 11 MILES NORTHEAST OF DENHAM
SPRINGS...OR ABOUT 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF LIVINGSTON. THE THUNDERSTORMS
WERE NEARLY STATIONARY.

THE CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND
AROUND...WALKER...LIVINGSTON AND DENHAM SPRINGS

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THESE STORMS ARE PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH...WHICH COULD DOWN TREE LIMBS AND BLOW
AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR
BUILDING UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES IN A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...RESULTING IN PONDING OF WATER AROUND LOW LYING
ROADWAYS. REMEMBER...DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO WATER COVERED
ROADWAYS. THE DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW A SAFE CROSSING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
632 PM CDT TUE JUL 03 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0403 PM     TSTM WND DMG     S VANCLEAVE             30.54N 88.67W
07/03/2012                   JACKSON            MS   BROADCAST MEDIA

            LARGE OAK TREE ACROSS THE ROAD AT HWY 57 AND JIM RAMSEY.
            NUMEROUS LIMBS AND DEBRIS DOWN IN THE TOWN OF VANCLEAVE.

&&

CBANNAN

LAZ040-MSZ080-040045-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
650 PM CDT TUE JUL 3 2012

...CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING WEST AFFECTING HANCOCK
COUNTY...ST. TAMMANY PARISH...

AT 648 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS 11 MILES EAST OF SLIDELL...OR ABOUT 3
MILES SOUTH OF STENNIS SPACE CENTER...MOVING WEST AT 5 MPH.

THE CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND
AROUND...PEARLINGTON...SLIDELL AIRPORT...SLIDELL...PEARL RIVER AND
EDEN ISLE

THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THESE STORMS IS WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH...
WHICH COULD DOWN TREE LIMBS AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS.
SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE
PASSED.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE QUICK ACTION IF A WARNING IS ISSUED. STAY TUNED
TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAZ070-040145-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
751 PM CDT TUE JUL 3 2012

...CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTH AFFECTING LOWER ST.
BERNARD PARISH...

AT 748 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF
YSCLOSKEY...MOVING SOUTH AT 5 MPH.

THE CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
THE INDICATED PARISH.

THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THESE STORMS IS WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH...
WHICH COULD DOWN TREE LIMBS AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS.
SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE
PASSED.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

LAZ062>064-040215-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
815 PM CDT TUE JUL 3 2012

...CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTHWEST AFFECTING UPPER
PLAQUEMINES PARISH...ORLEANS PARISH...UPPER ST. BERNARD PARISH...

AT 812 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NEAR CHALMETTE...OR ABOUT 4 MILES
NORTH OF VIOLET...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

THE CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND
AROUND...CHALMETTE...VIOLET AND BELLE CHASSE

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THESE STORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...PEA
SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 35 MPH...WHICH COULD DOWN TREE
LIMBS AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A
SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

LAZ059-061>063-068-040245-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
842 PM CDT TUE JUL 3 2012

...CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTHWEST AFFECTING UPPER
LAFOURCHE PARISH...UPPER JEFFERSON PARISH...UPPER PLAQUEMINES
PARISH...LOWER JEFFERSON PARISH...ORLEANS PARISH...

AT 836 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NEAR BELLE CHASSE...OR ABOUT 3 MILES
EAST OF BELLE CHASSE...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

THE CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND
AROUND...TIMBERLANE...BELLE CHASSE...HARVEY...JEAN LAFITTE...
BARATARIA AND LAFITTE

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THESE STORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...PEA TO
DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH...WHICH COULD DOWN
TREE LIMBS AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A
SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED.