Alert archive / Louisiana / Small Craft Advisories in 2012

Small Craft Advisory 12, NWS New Orleans, LA

February 17, 2012

NWS New Orleans, LA issued this small craft advisory at Feb 17, 2012, 3:41 PM CST. It took effect at Feb 18, 2012, 10:10 AM CST. It was in force for 38 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Feb 17, 2012, 3:41 PM CST (21:41 UTC)
In effect from
Feb 18, 2012, 10:10 AM CST
Expired
Feb 20, 2012, 12:00 AM CST
In force
38 hr
Issued by
NWS New Orleans, LA

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

269 
WHUS74 KLIX 172141
MWWLIX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
341 PM CST FRI FEB 17 2012

...STRONG WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AHEAD AND BEHIND THE WIND
SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY...

.A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE TEXAS COAST TONIGHT
AND TRACK EAST AND NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION
SATURDAY. STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE AREA LATE SATURDAY EVENING. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577-180545-
/O.NEW.KLIX.SC.Y.0012.120218T1800Z-120219T2100Z/
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
LAKE BORGNE-CHANDELEUR SOUND-BRETON SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
341 PM CST FRI FEB 17 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 3 PM CST
SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 3 PM
CST SUNDAY. 

* WINDS...EXPECT SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 30
  KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A WINDSHIFT TO THE
  NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED SATURDAY EVENING WITH NORTHWEST WINDS
  INCREASING UP TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS SATURDAY
  EVENING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

* SEAS...EXPECT WAVES UP TO 4 TO 5 FEET ON TIDAL
  LAKES...MISSISSIPPI SOUND AND BAYS SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
  SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY
  AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON ON THE REST OF THE COASTAL
  WATERS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$
10 follow-up statements
512 
WHUS74 KLIX 180341
MWWLIX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
941 PM CST FRI FEB 17 2012

...STRONG WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AHEAD AND BEHIND THE WIND
SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY...

.A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE TEXAS COAST TONIGHT
AND TRACK EAST AND NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION
SATURDAY. STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE AREA LATE SATURDAY EVENING. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577-181145-
/O.CON.KLIX.SC.Y.0012.120218T1800Z-120219T2100Z/
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
LAKE BORGNE-CHANDELEUR SOUND-BRETON SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
941 PM CST FRI FEB 17 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON SATURDAY TO
3 PM CST SUNDAY...

* WINDS...EXPECT SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 30
  KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A WIND SHIFT TO THE
  NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED SATURDAY EVENING WITH NORTHWEST WINDS
  INCREASING OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS SATURDAY EVENING
  THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

* SEAS...EXPECT WAVES UP TO 4 TO 5 FEET ON TIDAL LAKES...
  MISSISSIPPI SOUND AND BAYS SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
  AFTERNOON. SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY
  AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON ON THE REST OF THE COASTAL
  WATERS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$
334 
WHUS74 KLIX 180918
MWWLIX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
318 AM CST SAT FEB 18 2012

...STRONG WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AHEAD AND BEHIND THE WIND
SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY...

.A SURFACE LOW OFF THE TEXAS COAST WILL TRACK EAST AND NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION TODAY. STRONG WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY EVENING.
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

GMZ530-532-534-181730-
/O.EXT.KLIX.SC.Y.0012.120219T0900Z-120219T2100Z/
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
LAKE BORGNE-
318 AM CST SAT FEB 18 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 3 PM CST
SUNDAY...

* WINDS... NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
  LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

* SEAS...EXPECT WAVES UP TO 3 TO 4 FEET ON TIDAL LAKES...
  MISSISSIPPI SOUND AND BAYS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
  AFTERNOON.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

GMZ536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577-181730-
/O.CON.KLIX.SC.Y.0012.120218T1800Z-120219T2100Z/
CHANDELEUR SOUND-BRETON SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
318 AM CST SAT FEB 18 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 3 PM
CST SUNDAY...

* WINDS...EXPECT SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 
  KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A WIND SHIFT TO 
  THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED SATURDAY EVENING WITH NORTHWEST 
  WINDS INCREASING OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS SATURDAY 
  EVENING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. 

* SEAS... SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON
  THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

32
967 
WHUS74 KLIX 181610
MWWLIX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1010 AM CST SAT FEB 18 2012

...STRONG WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AHEAD AND BEHIND THE WIND
SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...

.A SURFACE LOW OFF THE UPPER TEXAS COAST WILL TRACK EAST AND
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION TODAY. STRONG WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING.
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS EVENING EVENING
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

GMZ536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577-190015-
/O.EXT.KLIX.SC.Y.0012.120218T1610Z-120219T2100Z/
CHANDELEUR SOUND-BRETON SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
1010 AM CST SAT FEB 18 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM CST SUNDAY...

* WINDS...SOUTHEAST WIND OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL
  BECOME TO THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. A WIND SHIFT TO THE
  NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED SATURDAY EVENING WITH NORTHWEST WINDS
  INCREASING OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS SATURDAY EVENING
  THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

* SEAS... SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON 
  THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

GMZ530-532-534-190015-
/O.CON.KLIX.SC.Y.0012.120219T0900Z-120219T2100Z/
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
LAKE BORGNE-
1010 AM CST SAT FEB 18 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 3 PM CST
SUNDAY...

* WINDS... NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
  LATER TONIGHT NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

* SEAS...EXPECT WAVES UP TO 3 TO 4 FEET ON TIDAL LAKES...
  MISSISSIPPI SOUND AND BAYS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
  AFTERNOON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$
421 
WHUS74 KLIX 182213
MWWLIX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
413 PM CST SAT FEB 18 2012

...STRONG WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AHEAD AND BEHIND THE WIND
SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...

.A SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION TONIGHT. THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
SWING THROUGH WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA LATER THIS
EVENING. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS EVENING
EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

GMZ536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577-190615-
/O.CON.KLIX.SC.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-120219T2100Z/
CHANDELEUR SOUND-BRETON SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
413 PM CST SAT FEB 18 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM CST SUNDAY...

* WINDS...SOUTHEAST WIND OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL
  BECOME TO THE SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS EVENING. A WIND SHIFT TO THE
  NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING WITH NORTHWEST WINDS
  INCREASING OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS THIS EVENING THROUGH
  EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

* SEAS... SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY
  AFTERNOON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

GMZ530-532-534-190615-
/O.CON.KLIX.SC.Y.0012.120219T0900Z-120219T2100Z/
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
LAKE BORGNE-
413 PM CST SAT FEB 18 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 3 PM CST
SUNDAY...

* WINDS... NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS 
  LATER TONIGHT NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. 

* SEAS...EXPECT WAVES UP TO 3 TO 4 FEET ON TIDAL LAKES... 
  MISSISSIPPI SOUND AND BAYS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY 
  AFTERNOON. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$
051 
WHUS74 KLIX 190352
MWWLIX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
952 PM CST SAT FEB 18 2012

...STRONG WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AHEAD AND BEHIND THE WIND
SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...

.A SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION TONIGHT. THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
SWING THROUGH WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA LATER
THIS EVENING. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS EVENING
EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

GMZ536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577-191200-
/O.CON.KLIX.SC.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-120219T2100Z/
CHANDELEUR SOUND-BRETON SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
952 PM CST SAT FEB 18 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM CST SUNDAY...

* WINDS...SOUTHEAST WIND OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS 
  WILL BECOME TO THE SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS EVENING. A WIND SHIFT 
  TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING WITH NORTHWEST 
  WINDS INCREASING OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS THIS 
  EVENING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. 

* SEAS... SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY 
  AFTERNOON. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

GMZ530-532-534-191200-
/O.CON.KLIX.SC.Y.0012.120219T0900Z-120219T2100Z/
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
LAKE BORGNE-
952 PM CST SAT FEB 18 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 3 PM CST
SUNDAY...

* WINDS... NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS 
  LATER TONIGHT NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. 

* WAVES...EXPECT WAVES UP TO 3 TO 4 FEET ON TIDAL LAKES...
  MISSISSIPPI SOUND AND BAYS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
  AFTERNOON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$
644 
WHUS74 KLIX 190929
MWWLIX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
329 AM CST SUN FEB 19 2012

...STRONG WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BEHIND THE WIND SHIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...

.A SURFACE LOW MOVED EAST OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING.
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577-191800-
/O.CON.KLIX.SC.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-120219T2100Z/
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
LAKE BORGNE-CHANDELEUR SOUND-BRETON SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
329 AM CST SUN FEB 19 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WINDS...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
  GUSTS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. A FEW GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS ARE
  POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING.

* SEAS...WAVES OF 3 TO 5 FEET OVER THE TIDAL LAKES AND
  SOUNDS...SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FEET OVER THE NEARSHORE OPEN WATERS AND
  5 TO 8 FEET OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THIS
  AFTERNOON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$
876 
WHUS74 KLIX 191537
MWWLIX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
937 AM CST SUN FEB 19 2012

...STRONG WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BEHIND THE WIND SHIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...

.SURFACE LOW AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER GEORGIA WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST OF THE AREA TODAY. THE PRESSURE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN SURFACE LOW OVER GEORGIA AND A SURFACE HIGH OVER TEXAS HAS
CREATED BRISK WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS PRESSURE DIFFERENCE WILL EASE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

GMZ536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577-192345-
/O.EXT.KLIX.SC.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-120220T0000Z/
CHANDELEUR SOUND-BRETON SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
937 AM CST SUN FEB 19 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
  THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. A FEW GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS ARE
  POSSIBLE...MAINLY BEFORE NOON.

* SEAS...WAVES OF 3 TO 5 FEET OVER THE TIDAL LAKES AND SOUNDS... 
  SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FEET OVER THE NEARSHORE OPEN WATERS AND 5 TO 8 
  FEET OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

GMZ530-532-534-192100-
/O.CON.KLIX.SC.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-120219T2100Z/
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
LAKE BORGNE-
937 AM CST SUN FEB 19 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WINDS...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
  GUSTS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. A FEW GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS ARE
  POSSIBLE...MAINLY BEFORE NOON.

* SEAS...WAVES OF 3 TO 5 FEET OVER THE TIDAL LAKES AND SOUNDS... 
  SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FEET OVER THE NEARSHORE OPEN WATERS AND 5 TO 8 
  FEET OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$
428 
WHUS74 KLIX 192125
MWWLIX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
325 PM CST SUN FEB 19 2012

...STRONG WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

.A SURFACE LOW AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ALONG THE EASTERN SEA
BOARD WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THE PRESSURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THIS SURFACE LOW AND A SURFACE
HIGH OVER TEXAS WILL CREATE BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE COASTAL
WATERS THIS EVENING AND EVENING. THIS PRESSURE DIFFERENCE WILL
EASE BY MIDNIGHT.

GMZ530-532-534-192230-
/O.EXP.KLIX.SC.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-120219T2100Z/
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
LAKE BORGNE-
325 PM CST SUN FEB 19 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

WINDS HAVE DECREASED BELOW 20 KNOTS. 

$$

GMZ555-557-575-577-200530-
/O.EXT.KLIX.SC.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-120220T0600Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
325 PM CST SUN FEB 19 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST
TONIGHT...

* WINDS...NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
  THROUGH LATER THIS EVENING. 

* SEAS... SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FEET OVER THE NEARSHORE OPEN WATERS AND 5
  TO 8 FEET OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS THROUGH LATER THIS
  EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

GMZ536-538-550-552-570-572-200000-
/O.CON.KLIX.SC.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-120220T0000Z/
CHANDELEUR SOUND-BRETON SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
325 PM CST SUN FEB 19 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
  THROUGH 6 PM THIS EVENING.

* SEAS...SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FEET OVER THE NEARSHORE OPEN WATERS AND 5
  TO 7 FEET OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 6 PM THIS
  AFTERNOON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$
555 
WHUS74 KLIX 200328
MWWLIX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
928 PM CST SUN FEB 19 2012

...STRONG WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...

.A SURFACE LOW AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ALONG THE EASTERN SEA
BOARD WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THE PRESSURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THIS SURFACE LOW AND A
SURFACE HIGH OVER TEXAS WILL CREATE BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE
COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING AND EVENING. THIS PRESSURE DIFFERENCE
WILL EASE BY MIDNIGHT.

GMZ555-557-575-577-200600-
/O.CON.KLIX.SC.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-120220T0600Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
928 PM CST SUN FEB 19 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST
TONIGHT...

* WINDS...NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH THIS
  EVENING.

* SEAS... SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FEET OVER THE NEARSHORE OPEN WATERS AND 5
  TO 7 FEET OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS THROUGH LATER THIS
  EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

CAB
795 
WHUS74 KLIX 200600
MWWLIX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1200 AM CST MON FEB 20 2012

...WINDS HAVE RELAXED BELOW ADVISORY CONDITIONS...

.HIGH PRESSURE HAVE MOVED INTO THE REGION AND WINDS HAVE THUS
FALLEN CONSIDERABLY FROMT EARLIER. WINDS ARE NOW BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA. 

GMZ555-557-575-577-200700-
/O.CAN.KLIX.SC.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-120220T0600Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
1200 AM CST MON FEB 20 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS CANCELLED THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. 

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this small craft advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS New Orleans, LA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this small craft advisory went out at Feb 17, 3:29 PM CST, 12 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Feb 17, 3:29 PM CST, 12 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
329 PM CST FRI FEB 17 2012

...THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES FOR SATURDAY...

.SYNOPSIS...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW UPPER LOW JUST TO THE WEST
OF EL PASO TEXAS. STATIONARY FRONT APPEARS TO BE ABOUT 100 MILES
OFF THE LOUISIANA COAST. MOST LAND AREAS HAVE ACTUALLY SEEN SOME
SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON...AND TEMPERATURES HAVE RESPONDED INTO THE
LOWER 70S ACROSS THOSE AREAS AWAY FROM EFFECTS OF WATER
TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION REMAINS WELL AWAY FROM OUR AREA...OFF
THE TEXAS COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

MAIN FORECAST ISSUES ARE IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. UPPER LOW OPENS UP
AND MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS LOUISIANA AND ARKANSAS SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON TIMING
OF SYSTEM WITH SURFACE LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z SATURDAY EVENING/SUNDAY MORNING.
EXPECT RAIN TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT LATE TONIGHT FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH. NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT WILL
DETERMINE THE EXTENT OF THE AREA THAT WILL SEE A RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER ON SATURDAY. BEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT AREAS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A BATON ROUGE TO POPLARVILLE LINE SHOULD GET INTO THE
WARM SECTOR AT SOME POINT DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. EXPECT A
LINE OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE IN THE WARM
SECTOR DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS AND PROGRESS EASTWARD DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT MAIN THREAT
ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS WILL BE EARLY AFTERNOON...NEW ORLEANS AND
HAMMOND AREAS AROUND MID AFTERNOON AND MISSISSIPPI COASTAL AREAS
DURING THE EARLY EVENING.

MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. THIS
WILL BE A LOW CAPE...HIGH SHEAR EVENT...NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW 50
KNOT JET AT 850 MB DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...LEADING TO
HELICITY VALUES GREATER THAN 500 JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LAPSE
RATES NOT PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR HAIL. SQUALL LINE WILL BE
PREVAILING MODE...BUT ANY CELLS THAT DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THE
LINE WILL HAVE GREATER TORNADO POTENTIAL. WILL HAVE SEVERE
MENTIONED IN THE ZONES FOR DAYTIME HOURS ON SATURDAY. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES GREATER THAN 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL WILL ENHANCE
PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY WITH THIS EVENT. WIDESPREAD 2 TO 4 INCH
RAINFALL TOTALS INDICATED BY GUIDANCE...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE WHERE TRAINING OCCURS. WILL CONTINUE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH...WITH POTENTIAL IT MAY NEED EXTENDED A FEW HOURS ON THE
BACK END. ADDITIONAL PROBLEM BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE
WINDS...ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE. WE MAY NEED WIND
ADVISORIES FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE NEW
ORLEANS METRO AREA...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON THIS UNTIL AFTER MAIN
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT PASSES. 35

&&

.LONG TERM...

AFTER OUR COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THINGS WILL BE MUCH QUIETER.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN AND SHOULD DOMINATE THE REGION
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT ISSUE IS WHEN THE NEXT COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION.

DURING THE DAY SUN ANOTHER PAC SYSTEM WILL BE COMING ONSHORE AND
MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE COAST. HOW FAR SOUTH THIS DIGS WILL BE KEY IF
WE WILL GET ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH. LATEST INDICATION
SUGGEST THIS DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN OPEN AND ATTACHED WITH THE MEAN
FLOW. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER SFC LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE SRN
PLAINS LATE MON AND THEN AS THE S/W MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO
THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEY TUE IT WILL HELP DRIVE THE SFC LOW TO THE
ENE AND A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS AND INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY LATE TUE. THE L/W TROUGH WILL ACTUALLY START TO AMPLIFY LATE
TUE OVER THE CNTRL CONUS AS MUCH STRONGER MID LVL ENERGY COMES IN
FROM WRN CANADA. THIS TROUGH AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO
SHRA AND EMBEDDED TSRA ONCE AGAIN ON TUE AND MORE SO LATE TUE. THERE
WILL BE SOME GOOD ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALONG WITH JET DYNAMICS TO
WORK WITH TO GET TSRA TO DEVELOP BUT OVERALL NOT EXPECTING A SVR
OUTBREAK AT THIS TIME. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY TO SEE IF SVR
WXR IS POSSIBLE. ONE THING TO MENTION IS THAT THE ECMWF IS VERY
DIFFERENT AS IT BRINGS A VERY WEAK QUICK HITTING COLD FRONT INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY BUT HIGH PRESSURE ACTUALLY REMAINS IN CONTROL AND
THUS LEADS TO FAR LESS RAIN CHANCES. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...

SOME IMPROVEMENT HAS OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON WITH CEILINGS ERODING
AND/OR LIFTING AT ALL 8 TAF SITES. A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DRAPED ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE SATURDAY
MORNING. THE MAJORITY OF THE RAIN WILL BE CONFINED TO THE TAF
LOCATIONS LOCATED CLOSER TO THE LOUISIANA COASTLINE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...A SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS OR LIGHT RAIN
WILL IMPACT SOUTHWEST TAF SITES INCLUDING MSY AND NEW STARTING 04Z
SATURDAY...BUT MOST WILL BE AFFECTED BY 10Z. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN
AND SOME TSRA WILL MOVE IN AFTER 12Z THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING ALONG
WITH LOWERING CONDITIONS TO IFR/LIFR. 18

&&

.MARINE...

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE BE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SATURDAY STORM
SYSTEM. GRADIENT WINDS WILL MOVE INTO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA JUST AFTER MIDDAY SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE SEVERAL HOURS WHERE TIDAL LAKES AND
MISSISSIPPI SOUND DROP BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AS THE LOW
PASSES...BUT RATHER THAN DOING SEPARATE ADVISORIES...OPTED TO KEEP
THEM IN THE ADVISORY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FEW GUSTS ABOVE GALE
FORCE...BUT AT THIS TIME...DO NOT FEEL THEY WILL BE FREQUENT
ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A GALE WARNING. LATER SHIFTS WILL BE MONITORING
SYSTEM FOR POSSIBLE UPGRADE. CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE
LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH ABOUT 48 HOURS BREAK BEFORE NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES TUESDAY NIGHT. THAT SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK AS
POTENT AND WE MAY ONLY NEED EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES AT THAT
POINT. 35

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT... /EXPERIMENTAL/
DSS CODE...ORANGE
DEPLOYED...ORLEANS PARISH FOR SEVERE WEATHER/PARADE IMPACTS SAT.
ACTIVATION..ER AND COMMS DESKS.
ACTIVITIES...EMERGENCY RESPONSE FOR OIL SPILL ON MS RIVER
             MONITORING MINOR RIVER FLOODING
             ASSESSING SEVERE TSTM/HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL FOR SAT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR AND/OR
         DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  53  64  44  61 /  40 100  50  10
BTR  56  72  48  63 /  60 100  40  10
ASD  55  70  51  63 /  50 100  50  10
MSY  57  72  51  62 /  60 100  50  10
GPT  56  67  52  63 /  40 100  70  10
PQL  55  70  56  64 /  30 100  70  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 6 PM SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ASCENSION...ASSUMPTION...EAST BATON
     ROUGE...EAST FELICIANA...IBERVILLE...LIVINGSTON...LOWER
     JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
     BERNARD...LOWER TERREBONNE...NORTHERN
     TANGIPAHOA...ORLEANS...POINTE COUPEE...SOUTHERN
     TANGIPAHOA...ST. CHARLES...ST. HELENA...ST. JAMES...ST.
     JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST. TAMMANY...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER
     LAFOURCHE...UPPER PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST. BERNARD...UPPER
     TERREBONNE...WASHINGTON...WEST BATON ROUGE...AND WEST
     FELICIANA.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 3 PM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 6 PM SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES:
     AMITE...HANCOCK...HARRISON...JACKSON...PEARL
     RIVER...PIKE...WALTHALL...AND WILKINSON.

&&
Hazardous weather outlook, Feb 17, 11:34 AM CST, 4 hours 7 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1134 AM CST FRI FEB 17 2012

GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577-LAZ034>037-
039-040-046>050-056>072-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-181200-
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
LAKE BORGNE-CHANDELEUR SOUND-BRETON SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO
60 NM-POINTE COUPEE-WEST FELICIANA-EAST FELICIANA-ST. HELENA-
WASHINGTON-ST. TAMMANY-IBERVILLE-WEST BATON ROUGE-
EAST BATON ROUGE-ASCENSION-LIVINGSTON-ASSUMPTION-ST. JAMES-
ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-UPPER LAFOURCHE-ST. CHARLES-UPPER JEFFERSON-
ORLEANS-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST. BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-
LOWER TERREBONNE-LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER JEFFERSON-
LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST. BERNARD-NORTHERN TANGIPAHOA-
SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA-WILKINSON-AMITE-PIKE-WALTHALL-PEARL RIVER-
HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON-
1134 AM CST FRI FEB 17 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA...SOUTH MISSISSIPPI AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA
AFTER TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED
TODAY OR TONIGHT.

FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT ALONG THE PEARL RIVER NEAR
BOGALUSA AND NEAR PEARL RIVER...ALONG THE ATCHAFALAYA RIVER NEAR
MORGAN CITY...AT LIVERPOOL ON THE TICKFAW RIVER AND AT ROBERT ON
THE TANGIPAHOA RIVER. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST RIVER FLOOD
STATEMENTS AND FORECASTS FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST SOUTH OF ARIZONA IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS TEXAS...LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI ON
SATURDAY. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTH TEXAS
TONIGHT AND TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI SATURDAY.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA
EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE SUNRISE. SOUTH WINDS WILL BRING IN MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA BY MID SATURDAY MORNING.
THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME VERY RAIN EFFICIENT
AND FLOODING RAINS ARE POSSIBLE WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. IN ADDITION...WIND PROFILES WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR
ISOLATED TORNADOES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LASTLY...A LINE OF STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY EVENING.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FROM SATURDAY
MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THE HEAVY RAIN MAY ALSO LEAD TO
SIGNIFICANT RISES ON SEVERAL AREA RIVERS. ADDITIONALLY...THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS
THE REGION. THE MAIN THREATS FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE MAIN TIME FRAME FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE FROM LATE SATURDAY MORNING INTO SATURDAY EARLY
EVENING.

AROUND THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON SATURDAY...STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
MAY CONTAIN GUSTS UP TO GALE FORCE ON THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT AREAS
ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. GUST POTENTIAL WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED ACROSS THE REGION AS STRONG GUSTS MAY RESULT
IN HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR RIDERS IN SEVERAL PARADES SCHEDULED
ACROSS THE AREA FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTERS...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...AND OTHER PUBLIC SAFETY
OFFICIALS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER ON SATURDAY.

The office that day

Everything else NWS New Orleans, LA issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Feb 16, 7:43 PM CSTRiver Flood WarningLIXSaint Helena22 hr
Feb 17, 3:56 AM CSTFlash Flood WatchLIXAssumption, East Baton Rouge, East Feliciana, Iberville, Pointe Coupee, Saint Bernard and 7 more41 hr

Nearby

Small Craft Advisories in Louisiana, 2012Every small craft advisory in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.