Severe Thunderstorm Warning 29, NWS New Orleans, LA

509 
WWUS54 KLIX 121811
SVSLIX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
111 PM CDT MON MAR 12 2012

LAC005-007-047-093-121822-
/O.EXP.KLIX.SV.W.0029.000000T0000Z-120312T1815Z/
ST. JAMES LA-ASCENSION LA-ASSUMPTION LA-IBERVILLE LA-
111 PM CDT MON MAR 12 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN IBERVILLE...
NORTHERN ASSUMPTION...SOUTHWESTERN ASCENSION AND WEST CENTRAL ST.
JAMES PARISHES WILL EXPIRE AT 115 PM CDT...

LAT...LON 3032 9125 3007 9084 2982 9111 2984 9118
      2986 9121 2989 9121 2999 9127 3003 9123
      3005 9127 3005 9137 3010 9139 3010 9146
      3011 9148 3015 9148
TIME...MOT...LOC 1812Z 312DEG 14KT 2997 9117

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
911 AM CDT MON MAR 12 2012

.UPDATE...

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

NO PROBLEMS WITH THE FLIGHT THIS MORNING. A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE THIS MORNING WITH A PW OF 1.38 INCHES AND AN LI OF -3.8.
AN INVERSION IN PLACE BETWEEN 950 MB AND THE SURFACE WHERE
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM AROUND 60 TO 66 DEGREES BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY THAT MOVED THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. A LIGHT NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BELOW 975 MB WITH A MODERATE AND PREDOMINATE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT MON MAR 12 2012/

SHORT TERM...
BIGGEST WEATHER IMPACT IN THE FORECAST IS CURRENTLY ONGOING. A
MOSTLY CONTINUOUS SQUALL LINE FROM NEAR MCB TO LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN IS
TRACKING ACROSS THE CWA. FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST THE LINE IS MORE
BROKEN. AIR MASS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE REMAINS UNSTABLE...SUFFICIENT
LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY MEAN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE EMBEDDED CELLS EXISTS. BRIEF BOWS WITH OCCASIONAL VORTICIES
ALONG THE LINE HAVE BEEN NOTED OVER THE LAST COUPLE HOURS. SO A
BRIEF WEAK TORNADO OR TWO COULD DEVELOP.

PROGRESSION OF THE SOUTHERN END OF THE BAND OF RAIN IS MOVING
LITTLE. MODELS SUGGEST STREAM OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN SWRLY FLOW REGIME. HAVE MAINTAINED 50 POPS OVER
MOST OF THE AREA. MAY BE CONSERVATIVE COVERAGE.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE TODAY. STAYED CLOSE TO MEX WITH MOST
AREAS SEEING 80 DEGREES TODAY. FOG COULD BECOME AN ISSUE OVERNIGHT
WITH THE AMOUNT OF RAIN THAT HAS FALLEN OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW HAVE
AREAS OF FOG MENTIONED IN THE ZONES BUT AN ADVISORY FOR TUESDAY
MORNING IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

LONG TERM...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING IN OVER THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK. THIS WILL BEGIN SHUTTING DOWN THE RAIN POTENTIAL. LIKELY STILL
HAVE AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS ON TUES BUT NOT MUCH BY WED THROUGH
FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THE SH/TS TRACKING AROUND THE RIDGE WILL NOT BE TOO
FAR FROM THE AREA. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE AND ABOVE NORMAL
WITH LOW 80 HIGHS.

MEFFER

AVIATION...
AN AREA OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO ADVANCE
STEADILY EAST NORTHEAST. OTHER SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS
COASTAL MISSISSIPPI AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. IN
GENERAL...IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE OBSERVED AT THE TERMINAL
SITES THIS MORNING DUE TO CEILINGS AND AT TIMES RESTRICTED
VISIBILITIES DUE TO THE RAIN. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER DAYBREAK
TO MVFR OR VFR. SOME RISK OF CONVECTION WILL BE IN THE OFFING DURING
THE DAY.

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CNTRD OVER THE SERN CONUS FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE. THIS WILL KEEP THE PERSISTENT SERLY TO ESERLY
FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO RELAX SOME AND SHOULD BACK BELOW SCS HEADLINES BY TOMORROW
MORNING. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER THE OPEN WATERS EAST OF
THE MS DELTA. ADVISORY STILL OUT FOR OUTER WATERS THROUGH SUNRISE.
SEAS WILL ALSO START TO SLOWLY RELAX BUT 4-6 FT SHOULD BE
PERSISTENT IN THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY BEFORE
BACKING DOW TO 3-4 FT BY MID WEEK.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION..NONE.
ACTIVITIES...MONITORING CONDITIONS NEAR MARSH FIRE IN ORLEANS PARISH

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR AND/OR
         DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  80  62  81  62 /  50  20  30  10
BTR  82  64  83  63 /  40  20  30  10
ASD  79  63  79  62 /  50  20  30  10
MSY  80  65  80  63 /  50  20  30  10
GPT  76  64  76  61 /  50  30  30  10
PQL  78  62  78  60 /  50  30  20  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1105 AM CDT MON MAR 12 2012

GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577-LAZ034>037-
039-040-046>050-056>072-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-131615-
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
LAKE BORGNE-CHANDELEUR SOUND-BRETON SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO
60 NM-POINTE COUPEE-WEST FELICIANA-EAST FELICIANA-ST. HELENA-
WASHINGTON-ST. TAMMANY-IBERVILLE-WEST BATON ROUGE-
EAST BATON ROUGE-ASCENSION-LIVINGSTON-ASSUMPTION-ST. JAMES-
ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-UPPER LAFOURCHE-ST. CHARLES-UPPER JEFFERSON-
ORLEANS-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST. BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-
LOWER TERREBONNE-LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER JEFFERSON-
LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST. BERNARD-NORTHERN TANGIPAHOA-
SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA-WILKINSON-AMITE-PIKE-WALTHALL-PEARL RIVER-
HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON-
1105 AM CDT MON MAR 12 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA...SOUTH MISSISSIPPI AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY. WHILE
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS.

A FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PEARL RIVER NEAR BOGALUSA.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST RIVER FLOOD STATEMENT FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AS
A WEAK BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER THE AREA. MORE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ON ON WEDNESDAY AS THE BOUNDARY DISSIPATES.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED...HOWEVER A FEW STORMS COULD
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

95/DM

LAZ034-046-121415-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
817 AM CDT MON MAR 12 2012

...CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHEAST AFFECTING POINTE
COUPEE PARISH...IBERVILLE PARISH...

AT 812 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF KROTZ SPRINGS...
OR ABOUT 15 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LOTTIE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

THE CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND
AROUND...NEW ROADS...MORGANZA...MARINGOUIN...LOTTIE AND LIVONIA

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THESE STORMS ARE PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 30 MPH...WHICH COULD DOWN TREE LIMBS AND BLOW
AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR
BUILDING UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

LAZ034-046>048-121645-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1052 AM CDT MON MAR 12 2012

...THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN IMPACTING WEST BATON ROUGE
PARISH...POINTE COUPEE PARISH...EAST BATON ROUGE PARISH...IBERVILLE
PARISH...

AT 1046 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL 11 MILES NORTH OF
CATAHOULA...OR ABOUT 12 MILES WEST OF RAMAH...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

THE CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND
AROUND...LOTTIE...BATON ROUGE AIRPORT...RAMAH...PORT ALLEN...
PLAQUEMINE...MARINGOUIN...LIVONIA...GROSSE TETE...GARDERE...
ERWINVILLE...BRUSLY...BATON ROUGE AND ADDIS

THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THESE STORMS IS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL
THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES IN A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...RESULTING IN PONDING OF WATER AROUND LOW LYING
ROADWAYS. REMEMBER...DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO WATER COVERED
ROADWAYS. THE DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW A SAFE CROSSING.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

95/DM