Severe Thunderstorm Warning 152, NWS New Orleans, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
322 PM CDT SUN AUG 5 2012

.SHORT TERM...
FAIRLY FLAT MID LEVEL RIDGE FROM NM TO W TN FORECAST TO RETROGRADE
WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS
FROM THE OH VALLEY TO THE NE GULF. IN ADDITION...A WEAK MID LEVEL
TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE NE GULF WILL DRIFT WEST AND MERGE WITH
DEEPENING MID LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST. THESE FEATURES
SHOULD ENHANCE RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. WHILE
THUNDERSTORMS COVERAGE SHOULD PEAK DURING AFTERNOON HEATING...SOME
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS ESPECIALLY OVER COASTAL AREAS. SOUNDINGS THIS
MORNING SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER APPROACHING 2.25 INCHES AND EXPECT
LITTLE CHANGE TO DEEP MOISTURE PROFILE THROUGH TUE MORNING...SO LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.
TOWARD MID WEEK...MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS BECOMES ORIENTED EAST OF
THE REGION WHICH ALLOWS NORTHWEST FLOW TO SPREAD OVER MOST OF THE AREA
WITH SLIGHTLY LESS MOISTURE...AND WILL LOWER POPS SLIGHTLY. MAX
TEMPS MAY BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY DEPENDING ON ONSET OF
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...BUT IN GENERAL NEAR NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK.

.LONG TERM...
MID WEEK INTO SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHOULD BE DOMINATED
BY LARGE UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER UT AND AZ WITH BROAD TROUGH FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO NORTH CENTRAL AND NE GULF. FORECAST
AREA OF SE LA AND SW AND COASTAL MS SHOULD BE DISPLACED FAR ENOUGH
SOUTHEAST OF THE LARGE UPPER HIGH FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY EACH DAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER OVER THE
EASTERN AREAS OF THE REGION IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE TROUGH WITH
DEEPER MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

.MARINE...
PRESSURE PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE
SLIGHTLY TOWARD MID AND END OF THE WEEK AS WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. SEAS MAY INCREASE TO 4 FEET IN THE
OUTER WATERS DUE TO POSSIBLE SWELLS TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD... AS ERNESTO TRACK WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS THE EXTREME
SOUTHWEST GULF PER NHC LATEST FORECAST. 21

.AVIATION...
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE WITH THE PAST FEW DAYS...THE MAIN
CONCERN IS CONVECTION. SCT TO NUM SHRA/TSRA HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
THE REGION AND WILL LIKELY IMPACT MOST AREAS. OUTSIDE OF THAT REALLY
NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT. /CAB/

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...MONITORING TROPICS AND CONVECTION.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR AND/OR
         DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  72  94  72  93 /  20  60  20  30
BTR  74  94  75  94 /  20  50  30  30
ASD  75  93  75  93 /  30  70  30  40
MSY  76  92  77  93 /  30  60  30  40
GPT  75  92  75  92 /  30  70  30  50
PQL  73  92  74  91 /  30  70  30  50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1107 AM CDT SUN AUG 5 2012

GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577-LAZ034>037-
039-040-046>050-056>072-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-061615-
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
LAKE BORGNE-CHANDELEUR SOUND-BRETON SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO
60 NM-POINTE COUPEE-WEST FELICIANA-EAST FELICIANA-ST. HELENA-
WASHINGTON-ST. TAMMANY-IBERVILLE-WEST BATON ROUGE-
EAST BATON ROUGE-ASCENSION-LIVINGSTON-ASSUMPTION-ST. JAMES-
ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-UPPER LAFOURCHE-ST. CHARLES-UPPER JEFFERSON-
ORLEANS-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST. BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-
LOWER TERREBONNE-LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER JEFFERSON-
LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST. BERNARD-NORTHERN TANGIPAHOA-
SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA-WILKINSON-AMITE-PIKE-WALTHALL-PEARL RIVER-
HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON-
1107 AM CDT SUN AUG 5 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA...SOUTH MISSISSIPPI AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING. A FEW OF THOSE COULD BE COME STRONG WITH
THE MAIN THREATS BEING BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING
AND GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED EACH DAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED... BUT A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG AND PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS OF RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

MSZ069-052015-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
237 PM CDT SUN AUG 5 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING WEST AFFECTING AMITE COUNTY...

AT 235 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LIBERTY...OR ABOUT 7 MILES
NORTH OF GILLSBERG...MOVING WEST AT 15 MPH.

THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...LIBERTY

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND WIND
GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH...WHICH COULD DOWN TREE LIMBS AND BLOW AROUND
UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING
UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

LAZ040-052030-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
238 PM CDT SUN AUG 5 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING SOUTHWEST AFFECTING ST. TAMMANY
PARISH...

AT 235 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR SLIDELL...OR ABOUT 2 MILES EAST OF
SLIDELL...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...SLIDELL...
SLIDELL AIRPORT...EDEN ISLE AND LACOMBE

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND WIND
GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH...WHICH COULD DOWN TREE LIMBS AND BLOW AROUND
UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING
UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

THIS STORM COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES IN A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...RESULTING IN PONDING OF WATER AROUND LOW LYING
ROADWAYS. REMEMBER...DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO WATER COVERED
ROADWAYS. THE DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW A SAFE CROSSING.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

CAB

LAZ046>049-052115-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
324 PM CDT SUN AUG 5 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING WEST AFFECTING ASCENSION PARISH...WEST
BATON ROUGE PARISH...EAST BATON ROUGE PARISH...IBERVILLE PARISH...

AT 323 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR OAK HILLS PLACE...OR ABOUT 2 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF OAK HILLS PLACE...MOVING WEST AT 15 MPH.

THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...GARDERE...
CARVILLE...BRUSLY...PLAQUEMINE...ADDIS AND BAYOU SORREL

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND WIND
GUSTS TO NEAR 45 MPH...WHICH COULD DOWN TREE LIMBS AND BLOW AROUND
UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING
UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

THIS STORM COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES IN A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...RESULTING IN PONDING OF WATER AROUND LOW LYING
ROADWAYS. REMEMBER...DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO WATER COVERED
ROADWAYS. THE DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW A SAFE CROSSING.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

CAB