River Flood Warning 22, NWS New Orleans, LA

432 
WGUS84 KLIX 190130
FLSLIX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS BATON ROUGE LA 
730 PM CST SAT FEB 18 2012

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
LOUISIANA...
 
THE COMITE RIVER AT COMITE JOOR RD AFFECTING EAST BATON ROUGE PARISH 
  
THE AMITE RIVER AT DENHAM SPRINGS AFFECTING EAST BATON ROUGE AND 
LIVINGSTON PARISHES 
  
THE AMITE RIVER AT BAYOU MANCHAC POINT AFFECTING EAST BATON ROUGE PARISH
  
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FORECAST CRESTS ARE BASED UPON RAINFALL THAT HAS OCCURRED ALONG WITH 
ANTICIPATED RAIN FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECASTS 
WILL BE MADE IF ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURS.

DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS.  REMEMBER...TWO FEET OF
RUSHING WATER CAN CARRY AWAY MOST VEHICLES INCLUDING PICKUPS.  TURN 
AROUND AND DON'T DROWN.

A FOLLOWUP PRODUCT WILL BE ISSUED LATER. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER 
RADIO...LOCAL TV AND RADIO STATIONS...OR YOUR CABLE PROVIDER...FOR 
THE LATEST INFORMATION.  THE LATEST GRAPHICAL HYDROLOGIC INFORMATION 
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WEATHER.GOV.

&&

LAC033-200730-
/O.EXT.KLIX.FL.W.0022.120219T0916Z-120221T0210Z/
/CMTL1.1.ER.120219T0916Z.120220T0000Z.120220T2010Z.NO/
730 PM CST SAT FEB 18 2012

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL MONDAY EVENING...THE FLOOD WARNING 
CONTINUES FOR
  THE COMITE RIVER AT COMITE JOOR RD.
* FROM LATE TONIGHT TO MONDAY EVENING.
* AT 6:00 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 17.2 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 20.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY 
  EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AND THEN CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL CRESTING 
  AT AROUND 22.0 FEET BY TOMORROW EVENING. THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO 
  FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 20.0 FEET...HIGH WATER WILL PREVENT RECREATIONAL AND 
  INDUSTRIAL ACTIVITY FROM LOUISIANA HIGHWAY 64 DOWNSTREAM TO THE 
  AMITE RIVER JUNCTION. FARM ANIMALS AND EQUIPMENT SHOULD BE MOVED TO
  HIGHER GROUND.

$$

LAC033-063-200729-
/O.EXT.KLIX.FL.W.0023.120219T2024Z-120222T1942Z/
/DENL1.1.ER.120219T2024Z.120221T1200Z.120222T1342Z.NO/
730 PM CST SAT FEB 18 2012

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THE FLOOD 
WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE AMITE RIVER AT DENHAM SPRINGS.
* FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT  6:00 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 27.3 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 29.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY 
  EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND THEN CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL CRESTING 
  AT AROUND 31.5 FEET BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO 
  FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 30.0 FEET...FLOODING WILL BEGIN IN THE WESTERNMOST PARTS
  OF DENHAM SPRINGS. RIVER ROAD AT THE FOOT OF BENTON LANE WILL FLOOD
* IMPACT...AT 29.0 FEET...FLOODING WILL BEGIN IN THE WESTERNMOST PARTS
  OF DENHAM SPRINGS.

$$

LAC033-200729-
/O.EXT.KLIX.FL.W.0024.120221T0112Z-120223T2308Z/
/BYML1.1.ER.120221T0112Z.120222T1200Z.120223T1708Z.NO/
730 PM CST SAT FEB 18 2012

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THE FLOOD 
WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE AMITE RIVER AT BAYOU MANCHAC POINT.
* FROM MONDAY EVENING TO THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 9.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY 
  MONDAY EVENING AND THEN CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL CRESTING 
  AT AROUND 11.0 FEET ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO 
  FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY THURSDAY MORNING FEBRUARY 23RD.
* IMPACT...AT 10.0 FEET...AMITE RIVER ROAD AND HORSESHOE DRIVE WILL BE
  IMPASSABLE. A FEW HOMES ON HORSESHOE DRIVE WILL FLOOD. WATER WILL 
  BE APPROACHING KENDALWOOD ROAD AND ACCESS TO PROPERTY WILL BE 
  THREATENED
* IMPACT...AT 9.0 FEET...THE RIVER WILL BEGIN TO FLOOD PROPERTY ALONG 
  BAYOU MANCHAC AND THE AMITE RIVER. AMITE RIVER ROAD AND HORSESHOE 
  DRIVE WILL BE FLOODED.

$$

947 
WGUS84 KLIX 191539
FLSLIX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS BATON ROUGE LA 
939 AM CST SUN FEB 19 2012

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
LOUISIANA...

THE COMITE RIVER AT COMITE JOOR RD AFFECTING EAST BATON ROUGE PARISH 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FORECAST CRESTS ARE BASED UPON RAINFALL THAT HAS OCCURRED ALONG WITH 
ANTICIPATED RAIN FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECASTS 
WILL BE MADE IF ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURS.

DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS.  REMEMBER...TWO FEET OF
RUSHING WATER CAN CARRY AWAY MOST VEHICLES INCLUDING PICKUPS.  TURN 
AROUND AND DON'T DROWN.

A FOLLOWUP PRODUCT WILL BE ISSUED LATER. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER 
RADIO...LOCAL TV AND RADIO STATIONS...OR YOUR CABLE PROVIDER...FOR 
THE LATEST INFORMATION.  THE LATEST GRAPHICAL HYDROLOGIC INFORMATION 
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WEATHER.GOV.

&&

LAC033-201048-
/O.EXT.KLIX.FL.W.0022.000000T0000Z-120220T1048Z/
/CMTL1.1.ER.000000T0000Z.120219T1800Z.120220T0448Z.NO/
939 AM CST SUN FEB 19 2012

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE COMITE RIVER AT COMITE JOOR RD.
* UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.
* AT 9:00 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 20.9 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 20.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 21.0 FEET
  BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE TONIGHT
  AND IS EXPECTED TO FALL TO A STAGE NEAR 17.1 FEET ON MONDAY MORNING
  FEBRUARY 20TH.
* IMPACT...AT 20.0 FEET...HIGH WATER WILL PREVENT RECREATIONAL AND
  INDUSTRIAL ACTIVITY FROM LOUISIANA HIGHWAY 64 DOWNSTREAM TO THE
  AMITE RIVER JUNCTION. FARM ANIMALS AND EQUIPMENT SHOULD BE MOVED TO
  HIGHER GROUND.

$$

100 
WGUS84 KLIX 200207
FLSLIX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS BATON ROUGE LA 
807 PM CST SUN FEB 19 2012

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
LOUISIANA...
 
THE COMITE RIVER AT COMITE JOOR RD AFFECTING EAST BATON ROUGE PARISH 
AMITE RIVER AT DENHAM SPRINGS AFFECTING EAST BATON ROUGE AND 
  
THE LIVINGSTON PARISHES AMITE RIVER AT BAYOU MANCHAC POINT AFFECTING 
EAST BATON ROUGE PARISH
  
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FORECAST CRESTS ARE BASED UPON RAINFALL THAT HAS OCCURRED ALONG WITH 
ANTICIPATED RAIN FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECASTS 
WILL BE MADE IF ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURS.

DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS.  REMEMBER...TWO FEET OF
RUSHING WATER CAN CARRY AWAY MOST VEHICLES INCLUDING PICKUPS.  TURN 
AROUND AND DON'T DROWN.

A FOLLOWUP PRODUCT WILL BE ISSUED LATER. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER 
RADIO...LOCAL TV AND RADIO STATIONS...OR YOUR CABLE PROVIDER...FOR 
THE LATEST INFORMATION.  THE LATEST GRAPHICAL HYDROLOGIC INFORMATION 
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WEATHER.GOV.

&&

LAC033-201549-
/O.EXT.KLIX.FL.W.0022.000000T0000Z-120220T1549Z/
/CMTL1.1.ER.000000T0000Z.120219T2000Z.120220T0949Z.NO/
807 PM CST SUN FEB 19 2012

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL MONDAY MORNING...THE FLOOD WARNING 
CONTINUES FOR
  THE COMITE RIVER AT COMITE JOOR RD.
* UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.
* AT 7:00 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 20.9 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 20.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 20.0 FEET...HIGH WATER WILL PREVENT RECREATIONAL AND 
  INDUSTRIAL ACTIVITY FROM LOUISIANA HIGHWAY 64 DOWNSTREAM TO THE 
  AMITE RIVER JUNCTION. FARM ANIMALS AND EQUIPMENT SHOULD BE MOVED TO
  HIGHER GROUND.

$$

LAC033-063-210807-
/O.EXT.KLIX.FL.W.0023.120220T0154Z-120222T0600Z/
/DENL1.1.ER.120219T2312Z.120220T1800Z.120222T0000Z.NO/
807 PM CST SUN FEB 19 2012

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE AMITE RIVER AT DENHAM SPRINGS.
* UNTIL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
* AT 7:00 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 29.2 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 29.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE RISING UNTIL CRESTING 
  AT AROUND 30.5 FEET BY TOMORROW EVENING. THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO
  FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY TUESDAY EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 30.0 FEET...FLOODING WILL BEGIN IN THE WESTERNMOST PARTS
  OF DENHAM SPRINGS. RIVER ROAD AT THE FOOT OF BENTON LANE WILL FLOOD
* IMPACT...AT 29.0 FEET...FLOODING WILL BEGIN IN THE WESTERNMOST PARTS
  OF DENHAM SPRINGS.

$$

LAC033-210807-
/O.EXT.KLIX.FL.W.0024.120221T0130Z-120223T0712Z/
/BYML1.1.ER.120221T0130Z.120222T0000Z.120223T0112Z.NO/
807 PM CST SUN FEB 19 2012

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE AMITE RIVER AT BAYOU MANCHAC POINT.
* FROM MONDAY EVENING TO LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
* AT 4:50 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 9.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY TOMORROW 
  EVENING AND THEN CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL CRESTING AT AROUND 10.0 FEET 
  BY TUESDAY EVENING. THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  WEDNESDAY EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 10.0 FEET...AMITE RIVER ROAD AND HORSESHOE DRIVE WILL BE
  IMPASSABLE. A FEW HOMES ON HORSESHOE DRIVE WILL FLOOD. WATER WILL 
  BE APPROACHING KENDALWOOD ROAD AND ACCESS TO PROPERTY WILL BE 
  THREATENED
* IMPACT...AT 9.0 FEET...THE RIVER WILL BEGIN TO FLOOD PROPERTY ALONG 
  BAYOU MANCHAC AND THE AMITE RIVER. AMITE RIVER ROAD AND HORSESHOE 
  DRIVE WILL BE FLOODED.

$$

942 
WGUS84 KLIX 201455
FLSLIX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS BATON ROUGE LA 
855 AM CST MON FEB 20 2012

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
LOUISIANA...

THE COMITE RIVER AT COMITE JOOR RD AFFECTING EAST BATON ROUGE PARISH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FORECAST CRESTS ARE BASED UPON RAINFALL THAT HAS OCCURRED ALONG WITH 
ANTICIPATED RAIN FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECASTS 
WILL BE MADE IF ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURS.

DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS.  REMEMBER...TWO FEET OF
RUSHING WATER CAN CARRY AWAY MOST VEHICLES INCLUDING PICKUPS.  TURN 
AROUND AND DON'T DROWN.

A FOLLOWUP PRODUCT WILL BE ISSUED LATER. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER 
RADIO...LOCAL TV AND RADIO STATIONS...OR YOUR CABLE PROVIDER...FOR 
THE LATEST INFORMATION.  THE LATEST GRAPHICAL HYDROLOGIC INFORMATION 
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WEATHER.GOV.

&&

LAC033-201525-
/O.CAN.KLIX.FL.W.0022.000000T0000Z-120220T1549Z/
/CMTL1.1.ER.000000T0000Z.120219T2000Z.120220T1111Z.NO/
855 AM CST MON FEB 20 2012

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE COMITE RIVER AT COMITE JOOR RD.
* AT 8:00 AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 19.3 FEET.
* FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT  5:11 AM MONDAY.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 20.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO FALL TO 11.5 FEET BY TOMORROW
  MORNING FEBRUARY 21ST.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
644 AM CST SAT FEB 18 2012

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
NO PROBLEMS WITH THIS MORNINGS FLIGHT. MID LEVEL MOISTURE HAS
INCREASED IN ADVANCE OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER EAST
TEXAS. THE PW VALUE HAS INCREASED SINCE LAST NIGHTS FLIGHT AND
IS NOW INDICATED AT 1.40 INCHES. THE SOUNDING IS SATURATED FROM
1000MB TO CLOSE TO 875MB WITH DRY AIR ABOVE 550MB. THERE IS A 4
DEGREE INVERSION FROM 868MB THROUGH 832MB. MEAN LOW LEVEL WINDS
FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH 5K FEET ARE FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT
16KTS. FROM 5K TO 10K FEET THE WINDS VEER AND ARE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AT 20KTS. THE WINDS REMAIN OUT THE SOUTHWEST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FLIGHT. THE WINDS INCREASE TO 50KTS OR GREATER AT
AROUND 13K FEET. THERE IS A JET MAX OF 127KTS AT 39K FEET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 557 AM CST SAT FEB 18 2012/

DECISION SUPPORT... /EXPERIMENTAL/
DSS CODE...ORANGE
DEPLOYED...ORLEANS PARISH FOR SEVERE WEATHER/PARADE IMPACTS SAT.
ACTIVATION..ER AND COMMS DESKS.
ACTIVITIES...EMERGENCY RESPONSE FOR OIL SPILL ON MS RIVER
             MONITORING MINOR RIVER FLOODING
             MONITORING STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS TODAY.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR AND/OR
         DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CST SAT FEB 18 2012/

SHORT TERM...
LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN TERMS OF GENERAL EXPECTATIONS FOR TODAY. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS FOR MOST OF THE AREA AS A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS AND TRACKS ACROSS THE CWA TODAY. AHEAD THE LOW
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING WARM MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF INTO THE COASTAL PARISHES AND
COUNTIES. HOW FAR NORTH THIS WARM SECTOR REACHES WILL BE ONE KEY
COMPONENT TO SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOPMENT B/C INSTABILITY WILL BE SO
LIMITED WITH THE CURRENT SYSTEM. ITS MANY A WIND SHEAR EVENT. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE GREATEST THREAT TO BE ALONG THE COAST. SRH AT
NEW ORLEANS COULD BE ON THE ORDER OF 600+M2/S2 AS 850JET REALLY GETS
GOING AROUND TO NEAR 50 KTS AT 21Z. THIS COMPARED TO SRH OF 250
M2/S2. SO THERE WILL BE QUITE A GRADIENT IN INTENSITY FROM COASTAL
TO WELL INLAND LOCATIONS TODAY. THIS SCENARIO TO MOST LIKELY PLAY
OUT AS CLUSTERS OF CELLS WITH BOWING SEGMENTS AND POSSIBLY EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS. MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES WITH HAIL THE LOWEST POSSIBILITY. BIGGEST DIFFICULTY ATTM
IS TIMING OF THE STORMS. THE BATON ROUGE AREA WILL HAVE THE MOST
LIMITED WINDOW OF SEVERE POTENTIAL AS TIMING OF JET IN CONJUNCTURE
WITH WHEN CELLS IMPACTING THE AREA. THINKING IS LATE MORNING TO NEAR
NOON FOR THEM. NEW ORLEANS MORE OF A EARLY AFTERNOON. LATE AFTERNOON
TO EARLY EVENING FOR THE MS COAST.

FINDING A CONSENSUS BETWEEN MESO MODELS...LOCAL AND NATIONAL...NOT
EXACTLY EASY BUT IN GENERAL THE BULK OF THE STRONGER ACTIVITY WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE NEW ORLEANS METRO AREA TOWARDS THE MS COAST. IN
THAT SWATH...WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY
HEAVIER AMOUNTS CAN BE EXPECTED. SO WILL MAINTAIN THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AS THE EVENT WILL BE FAIRLY SHORT BUT WITH SUCH SATURATED
COLUMN PER MODEL SOUNDINGS...WILL HAVE VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS
AND HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING.

BY 00Z...THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN SHOULD BE REACHING AT LEAST TO
NEW ORLEANS AND MOVING EASTWARD RATHER QUICKLY WITH THE CWA
FINISHING UP WITH RAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT.

LONG TERM...
SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVED CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE AREA SUNDAY AS
TROUGH IS EAST AND RIDGE BUILDS IN. LIKELY BE ON THE SLIGHTLY COOL
SIDE AS COOLER AIR WRAPS AROUND THE EJECTING UPPER LOW. HIGHS TO BE
IN THE LOWER 60S. WILL START WARMING BACK UP QUICKLY NEXT WEEK AS WE
GET RETURN FLOW AGAIN AND RIDGING TO ZONAL FLOW ENSUES. BIGGEST
CHANGE IN THE FORECAST COMES IN FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM. MODEL NOW A
FULL DAY SLOWER INDICATING THE NEXT TROUGH TO BE TRACKING THRU WED
INSTEAD OF TUESDAY. FOR SAKE OF MODEL INCONSISTENCY...DIDNT
COMPLETELY DROP POPS OUT BUT MAY BE GONE BY NEXT FCST PACKAGE. FOR
NOW BROUGHT POPS DOWN TO 20 PCT THEN AND UP TO 40 TO 50 ON WED.

MEFFER

AVIATION...

DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...AS A STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.  THROUGH AROUND
12Z...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR RANGE OVERALL.  THERE WILL
BE SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AS LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS SLIDE THROUGH...BUT IMPACTS AT AREA TERMINALS WILL BE
MINIMAL.  AFTER 12Z...CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN GRADUALLY TURN WORSE.
CEILINGS SHOULD FALL TO AROUND 1500 TO 2500 FEET...AND VISIBILITIES
WILL ALSO FALL TO AROUND 3 MILES AS RAINFALL INCREASES IN DURATION
AND INTENSITY.  THESE PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PUNCTUATED BY
PERIODS OF HEAVIER CONVECTION THROUGH AROUND 20Z...WHICH WILL PUSH
CEILINGS BELOW 1000 FEET AND VISIBILITIES DOWN TO AROUND 1 MILE.
THESE IFR RESTRICTIONS COULD IMPACT TRAFFIC FLOW AT AREA TERMINALS
AND RESULT IN ADDITIONAL FUEL NEEDS.  HOWEVER...THE WORST OF THE
WEATHER WILL TAKE PLACE BETWEEN 20Z AND 03Z...AS A STRONG SQUALL
LINE MAY IMPACT THE AREA.  THIS LINE OF STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG
WINDS AND REDUCE VISIBILITIES INTO THE LIFR RANGE AS THEY PASS
THROUGH.  THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL LAST ONE TO TWO HOURS GENERALLY.
AFTER THE LINE PULLS EAST OF THE AREA...A MORE STRATIFORM RAINFALL
AND LOW CLOUD DECK WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
OVERALL...EXPECT IFR CEILINGS TO BE IN PLACE.  ADDITIONALLY...WINDS
WILL GUSTY AFTER 06Z...WITH WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE AT
KMSY AND KNEW.  32

MARINE...

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY FORMING OVER SOUTH TEXAS WILL
SWEEP THROUGH LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI TODAY.
INITIALLY...INCREASING EAST AND SOUTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED IN
ADVANCE OF THE LOW.  WINDS WILL TURN MORE SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON
AND INCREASE INTO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RANGE AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO
INTENSIFY RESULTING IN A SHARP PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF.  AS THE LOW PULLS TO THE EAST IN THE EVENING HOURS...WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST AND FURTHER INCREASE IN
SPEED AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA.
THESE STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS
BEFORE WEAKENING SUNDAY EVENING.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
POSTED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS TO REFLECT THE HIGH WIND AND SEA
THREAT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR
LIGHTER WINDS AND CALMER SEAS EARLY IN THE WEEK.  WINDS WILL SHIFT
FROM THE NORTH TO THE SOUTHEAST BY MONDAY NIGHT.  HOWEVER...ANOTHER
FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY.   INCREASING WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM...RESULTING
IN ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
FOR WEDNESDAY. 32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  65  52  61  36 / 100  70  10   0
BTR  67  54  63  40 / 100  60  10   0
ASD  68  58  63  41 / 100  80  10   0
MSY  69  56  62  45 / 100  70  10   0
GPT  68  59  63  43 / 100  90  10   0
PQL  67  58  64  40 / 100  90  10   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ASCENSION...ASSUMPTION...EAST BATON ROUGE...EAST
     FELICIANA...IBERVILLE...LIVINGSTON...LOWER
     JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
     BERNARD...LOWER TERREBONNE...NORTHERN
     TANGIPAHOA...ORLEANS...POINTE COUPEE...SOUTHERN
     TANGIPAHOA...ST. CHARLES...ST. HELENA...ST. JAMES...ST.
     JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST. TAMMANY...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER
     LAFOURCHE...UPPER PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST. BERNARD...UPPER
     TERREBONNE...WASHINGTON...WEST BATON ROUGE...AND WEST
     FELICIANA.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM SUNDAY TO 3 PM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE
     MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 3 PM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     AMITE...HANCOCK...HARRISON...JACKSON...PEARL
     RIVER...PIKE...WALTHALL...AND WILKINSON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM SUNDAY TO 3 PM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE
     MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 3 PM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
429 AM CST SAT FEB 18 2012

GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577-LAZ034>037-
039-040-046>050-056>072-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-191030-
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
LAKE BORGNE-CHANDELEUR SOUND-BRETON SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO
60 NM-POINTE COUPEE-WEST FELICIANA-EAST FELICIANA-ST. HELENA-
WASHINGTON-ST. TAMMANY-IBERVILLE-WEST BATON ROUGE-
EAST BATON ROUGE-ASCENSION-LIVINGSTON-ASSUMPTION-ST. JAMES-
ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-UPPER LAFOURCHE-ST. CHARLES-UPPER JEFFERSON-
ORLEANS-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST. BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-
LOWER TERREBONNE-LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER JEFFERSON-
LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST. BERNARD-NORTHERN TANGIPAHOA-
SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA-WILKINSON-AMITE-PIKE-WALTHALL-PEARL RIVER-
HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON-
429 AM CST SAT FEB 18 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA...SOUTH MISSISSIPPI AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS ALL
OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. THE PRIMARY
THREATS FROM ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE STRONG
DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES. THE THREAT FOR THESE IMPACTS
WILL BE HIGHEST FROM THE LATE MORNING HOURS INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON... THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE HOUMA AREA...RIVER
PARISHES...AND THE BATON ROUGE REGION. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
WILL THEN SHIFT EAST AND IMPACT THE NEW ORLEANS AREA AND SOUTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. BY EARLY
EVENING...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE GREATEST ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI COAST.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO
EXPECTED WITH RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
INTO THE EVENING.

GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT AREAS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
STRONG GUSTS MAY RESULT IN HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR RIDERS IN
SEVERAL PARADES SCHEDULED ACROSS THE AREA.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF OF THE
COASTAL WATERS EXCEPT THE SOUNDS AND TIDAL LAKES BEGINNING AT NOON
AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE NIGHT. A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE.

FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MANY LOCAL RIVERS. PLEASE
REFER TO THE LATEST RIVER FLOOD STATEMENTS AND FORECASTS FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS FROM
EARLY MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MANY LOCAL RIVERS. PLEASE
REFER TO THE LATEST RIVER FLOOD STATEMENTS AND FORECASTS FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTERS...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...AND OTHER PUBLIC SAFETY
OFFICIALS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER ON SATURDAY.

LAZ049-050-181330-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
707 AM CST SAT FEB 18 2012

...CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHEAST AFFECTING
ASCENSION PARISH...LIVINGSTON PARISH...

AT 706 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NEAR GONZALES...OR ABOUT 3 MILES
NORTHWEST OF GONZALES...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

THE CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND
AROUND...PRAIRIEVILLE...SORRENTO...WHITEHALL...SPRINGFIELD AND
KILLIAN

THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THESE STORMS IS WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH...
WHICH COULD DOWN TREE LIMBS AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS.
SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE
PASSED.

LAZ034-046>048-181345-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
714 AM CST SAT FEB 18 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING NORTHEAST AFFECTING WEST BATON ROUGE
PARISH...POINTE COUPEE PARISH...EAST BATON ROUGE PARISH...IBERVILLE
PARISH...

AT 712 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF KROTZ SPRINGS...OR ABOUT 6
MILES SOUTH OF LOTTIE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...
MARINGOUIN...LIVONIA...ERWINVILLE AND BATON ROUGE AIRPORT

THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THIS STORM IS WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH...
WHICH COULD DOWN TREE LIMBS AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS.
SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.