River Flood Warning 19, NWS New Orleans, LA

593 
WGUS84 KLIX 170203
FLSLIX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS BATON ROUGE LA 
803 PM CST THU FEB 16 2012

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
LOUISIANA...

THE TANGIPAHOA RIVER NEAR ROBERT AFFECTING TANGIPAHOA PARISH 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FORECAST CRESTS ARE BASED UPON RAINFALL THAT HAS OCCURRED ALONG WITH 
ANTICIPATED RAIN FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECASTS 
WILL BE MADE IF ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURS.

DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS.  REMEMBER...TWO FEET OF
RUSHING WATER CAN CARRY AWAY MOST VEHICLES INCLUDING PICKUPS.  TURN 
AROUND AND DON'T DROWN.

A FOLLOWUP PRODUCT WILL BE ISSUED LATER. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER 
RADIO...LOCAL TV AND RADIO STATIONS...OR YOUR CABLE PROVIDER...FOR 
THE LATEST INFORMATION.  THE LATEST GRAPHICAL HYDROLOGIC INFORMATION 
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WEATHER.GOV.

&&

LAC105-180803-
/O.CON.KLIX.FL.W.0019.120219T1200Z-120219T1800Z/
/ROBL1.1.ER.120219T1200Z.120219T1200Z.120219T1200Z.NO/
803 PM CST THU FEB 16 2012

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE TANGIPAHOA RIVER NEAR ROBERT.
* FROM SUNDAY MORNING TO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT 7:30 PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.7 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO RISE UNTIL CRESTING AT AROUND
  FLOOD STAGE ON SUNDAY MORNING. 
* IMPACT...AT 15.0 FEET...MINOR FLOODING NEAR THE RIVER.

$$

923 
WGUS84 KLIX 171528
FLSLIX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS BATON ROUGE LA 
928 AM CST FRI FEB 17 2012

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
LOUISIANA...

THE TANGIPAHOA RIVER NEAR ROBERT AFFECTING TANGIPAHOA PARISH 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FORECAST CRESTS ARE BASED UPON RAINFALL THAT HAS OCCURRED ALONG WITH 
ANTICIPATED RAIN FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECASTS 
WILL BE MADE IF ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURS.

DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS.  REMEMBER...TWO FEET OF
RUSHING WATER CAN CARRY AWAY MOST VEHICLES INCLUDING PICKUPS.  TURN 
AROUND AND DON'T DROWN.

A FOLLOWUP PRODUCT WILL BE ISSUED LATER. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER 
RADIO...LOCAL TV AND RADIO STATIONS...OR YOUR CABLE PROVIDER...FOR 
THE LATEST INFORMATION.  THE LATEST GRAPHICAL HYDROLOGIC INFORMATION 
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WEATHER.GOV.

&&

LAC105-182128-
/O.EXT.KLIX.FL.W.0019.120219T0600Z-120219T1200Z/
/ROBL1.1.ER.120219T0600Z.120219T0600Z.120219T0600Z.NO/
928 AM CST FRI FEB 17 2012

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE TANGIPAHOA RIVER NEAR ROBERT.
* FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY MORNING.
* AT 8:30 AM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 12.8 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO RISE TO NEAR FLOOD STAGE EARLY
  SUNDAY MORNING FEBRUARY 19TH.
* IMPACT...AT 15.0 FEET...MINOR FLOODING NEAR THE RIVER.

$$

120 
WGUS84 KLIX 180121
FLSLIX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS BATON ROUGE LA 
721 PM CST FRI FEB 17 2012

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
LOUISIANA...
 
THE TANGIPAHOA RIVER NEAR ROBERT AFFECTING TANGIPAHOA PARISH 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FORECAST CRESTS ARE BASED UPON RAINFALL THAT HAS OCCURRED ALONG WITH 
ANTICIPATED RAIN FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECASTS 
WILL BE MADE IF ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURS.

DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS.  REMEMBER...TWO FEET OF
RUSHING WATER CAN CARRY AWAY MOST VEHICLES INCLUDING PICKUPS.  TURN 
AROUND AND DON'T DROWN.

A FOLLOWUP PRODUCT WILL BE ISSUED LATER. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER 
RADIO...LOCAL TV AND RADIO STATIONS...OR YOUR CABLE PROVIDER...FOR 
THE LATEST INFORMATION.  THE LATEST GRAPHICAL HYDROLOGIC INFORMATION 
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WEATHER.GOV.

&&

LAC105-190721-
/O.EXT.KLIX.FL.W.0019.120219T0600Z-120219T1800Z/
/ROBL1.1.ER.120219T0600Z.120219T0600Z.120219T1200Z.NO/
721 PM CST FRI FEB 17 2012

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE FLOOD WARNING 
CONTINUES FOR
  THE TANGIPAHOA RIVER NEAR ROBERT.
* FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT  6:30 PM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 13.8 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO RISE TO NEAR FLOOD STAGE 
  EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FEBRUARY 19TH.
* IMPACT...AT 15.0 FEET...MINOR FLOODING NEAR THE RIVER.

$$

428 
WGUS44 KLIX 181510
FLWLIX
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS BATON ROUGE LA 
910 AM CST SAT FEB 18 2012

...OBSERVED FLOODING CHANGED FROM MINOR TO MINOR SEVERITY FOR THE 
FOLLOWING RIVERS IN LOUISIANA...

...FORECAST FLOODING CHANGED FROM MINOR TO MODERATE SEVERITY FOR THE 
FOLLOWING RIVERS IN LOUISIANA...

THE TANGIPAHOA RIVER NEAR ROBERT AFFECTING TANGIPAHOA PARISH
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FORECAST CRESTS ARE BASED UPON RAINFALL THAT HAS OCCURRED ALONG WITH 
ANTICIPATED RAIN FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECASTS 
WILL BE MADE IF ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURS.

DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS.  REMEMBER...TWO FEET OF
RUSHING WATER CAN CARRY AWAY MOST VEHICLES INCLUDING PICKUPS.  TURN 
AROUND AND DON'T DROWN.

A FOLLOWUP PRODUCT WILL BE ISSUED LATER. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER 
RADIO...LOCAL TV AND RADIO STATIONS...OR YOUR CABLE PROVIDER...FOR 
THE LATEST INFORMATION.  THE LATEST GRAPHICAL HYDROLOGIC INFORMATION 
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WEATHER.GOV.

&&

LAC105-192110-
/O.EXT.KLIX.FL.W.0019.120218T1506Z-000000T0000Z/
/ROBL1.2.ER.120218T1412Z.120221T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
910 AM CST SAT FEB 18 2012

...FORECAST FLOODING INCREASED FROM MINOR TO MODERATE SEVERITY...
THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR 
  THE TANGIPAHOA RIVER NEAR ROBERT.
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT 8:30 AM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 15.1 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 18.0 FEET
  BY EARLY AFTERNOON TUESDAY FEBRUARY 21ST. THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO FALL
  TO A STAGE NEAR 15.7 FEET ON THURSDAY MORNING FEBRUARY 23RD.
* IMPACT...AT 18.0 FEET...EVACUATION OF TRAILERS AT HIDDEN OAKS MUST
  BE COMPLETED. WATER COVERS THE ENTRANCE TO CAMP GROUNDS. SECONDARY
  ROADS AND UNIMPROVED ROADS NORTH OF ROBERT WILL FLOOD AS
  CHAPPEPEELA CREEK BACKS UP. LOW PLACES ON HIGHWAY 22 SOUTH OF
  ROBERT WILL BE UNDER WATER.

$$

359 
WGUS84 KLIX 190309
FLSLIX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS BATON ROUGE LA 
909 PM CST SAT FEB 18 2012

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
MISSISSIPPI...
 
THE TANGIPAHOA RIVER AT OSYKA AFFECTING PIKE COUNTY 

THE TANGIPAHOA RIVER NEAR ROBERT AFFECTING TANGIPAHOA PARISH 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FORECAST CRESTS ARE BASED UPON RAINFALL THAT HAS OCCURRED ALONG WITH 
ANTICIPATED RAIN FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECASTS 
WILL BE MADE IF ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURS.

DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS.  REMEMBER...TWO FEET OF
RUSHING WATER CAN CARRY AWAY MOST VEHICLES INCLUDING PICKUPS.  TURN 
AROUND AND DON'T DROWN.

A FOLLOWUP PRODUCT WILL BE ISSUED LATER. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER 
RADIO...LOCAL TV AND RADIO STATIONS...OR YOUR CABLE PROVIDER...FOR 
THE LATEST INFORMATION.  THE LATEST GRAPHICAL HYDROLOGIC INFORMATION 
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WEATHER.GOV.

&&

MSC113-200909-
/O.EXT.KLIX.FL.W.0027.120219T0936Z-120220T1330Z/
/OSYM6.1.ER.120219T0936Z.120219T1800Z.120220T0730Z.NO/
909 PM CST SAT FEB 18 2012

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL MONDAY MORNING...THE FLOOD WARNING 
CONTINUES FOR
  THE TANGIPAHOA RIVER AT OSYKA.
* FROM LATE TONIGHT TO MONDAY MORNING.
* AT 8:00 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 14.2 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY
  TOMORROW MORNING AND THEN CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL CRESTING AT AROUND 
  15.5 FEET BY TOMORROW EARLY AFTERNOON. THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO FALL 
  BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 15.0 FEET...PASTURES AND WOODLANDS ALONG WITH SOME CROP 
  LAND NEAR THE RIVER WILL BE INUNDATED.

$$

LAC105-200909-
/O.CON.KLIX.FL.W.0019.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/ROBL1.2.ER.120218T1412Z.120221T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
909 PM CST SAT FEB 18 2012

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE TANGIPAHOA RIVER NEAR ROBERT.
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT 8:30 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 16.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE RISING UNTIL CRESTING 
  AT AROUND 18.0 FEET BY TUESDAY EARLY AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 18.0 FEET...EVACUATION OF TRAILERS AT HIDDEN OAKS MUST 
  BE COMPLETED. WATER COVERS THE ENTRANCE TO CAMP GROUNDS. SECONDARY 
  ROADS AND UNIMPROVED ROADS NORTH OF ROBERT WILL FLOOD AS 
  CHAPPEPEELA CREEK BACKS UP. LOW PLACES ON HIGHWAY 22 SOUTH OF 
  ROBERT WILL BE UNDER WATER.
* IMPACT...AT 17.0 FEET...LOW PLACES ALONG HIGHWAY 22 SOUTH OF ROBERT 
  WILL BE UNDER WATER. WATER WILL APPROACH THE ENTRANCE ROAD OF 
  HIDDEN OAKS CAMPGROUND. TRAILERS AT THE CAMPGROUND WILL BE UNABLE 
  TO BE MOVED OUT WHEN THE RIVER REACHES 18 FEET.
* IMPACT...AT 16.0 FEET...MINOR FLOODING NEAR THE RIVER WITH BEACH 
  AREAS UNDER WATER.
* IMPACT...AT 15.0 FEET...MINOR FLOODING NEAR THE RIVER.

$$

714 
WGUS84 KLIX 191602
FLSLIX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS BATON ROUGE LA 
1002 AM CST SUN FEB 19 2012

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
MISSISSIPPI...LOUISIANA...

THE TANGIPAHOA RIVER AT OSYKA AFFECTING PIKE COUNTY 

THE TANGIPAHOA RIVER NEAR ROBERT AFFECTING TANGIPAHOA PARISH 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FORECAST CRESTS ARE BASED UPON RAINFALL THAT HAS OCCURRED ALONG WITH 
ANTICIPATED RAIN FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECASTS 
WILL BE MADE IF ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURS.

DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS.  REMEMBER...TWO FEET OF
RUSHING WATER CAN CARRY AWAY MOST VEHICLES INCLUDING PICKUPS.  TURN 
AROUND AND DON'T DROWN.

A FOLLOWUP PRODUCT WILL BE ISSUED LATER. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER 
RADIO...LOCAL TV AND RADIO STATIONS...OR YOUR CABLE PROVIDER...FOR 
THE LATEST INFORMATION.  THE LATEST GRAPHICAL HYDROLOGIC INFORMATION 
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WEATHER.GOV.

&&

MSC113-201000-
/O.EXT.KLIX.FL.W.0027.000000T0000Z-120220T1000Z/
/OSYM6.1.ER.120219T1007Z.120219T1500Z.120220T0400Z.NO/
1002 AM CST SUN FEB 19 2012

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE TANGIPAHOA RIVER AT OSYKA.
* UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.
* AT 9:00 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 15.3 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS AT OR NEAR CREST AND IS EXPECTED TO FALL
  BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY TONIGHT. THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO FALL TO A STAGE
  NEAR 14.6 FEET BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING FEBRUARY 20TH.
* IMPACT...AT 15.0 FEET...PASTURES AND WOODLANDS ALONG WITH SOME CROP
  LAND NEAR THE RIVER WILL BE INUNDATED.

$$

LAC105-202202-
/O.EXT.KLIX.FL.W.0019.000000T0000Z-120222T1600Z/
/ROBL1.1.ER.120218T1412Z.120221T0000Z.120222T1000Z.NO/
1002 AM CST SUN FEB 19 2012

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE FLOOD WARNING
CONTINUES FOR
  THE TANGIPAHOA RIVER NEAR ROBERT.
* UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING.
* AT 9:30 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 16.2 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 16.4 FEET
  BY TOMORROW EVENING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE WEDNESDAY
  MORNING FEBRUARY 22ND.
* IMPACT...AT 16.0 FEET...MINOR FLOODING NEAR THE RIVER WITH BEACH
  AREAS UNDER WATER.

$$

280 
WGUS84 KLIX 200242
FLSLIX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS BATON ROUGE LA 
842 PM CST SUN FEB 19 2012

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
LOUISIANA...
 
THE TANGIPAHOA RIVER NEAR ROBERT AFFECTING TANGIPAHOA PARISH 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FORECAST CRESTS ARE BASED UPON RAINFALL THAT HAS OCCURRED ALONG WITH 
ANTICIPATED RAIN FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECASTS 
WILL BE MADE IF ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURS.

DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS.  REMEMBER...TWO FEET OF
RUSHING WATER CAN CARRY AWAY MOST VEHICLES INCLUDING PICKUPS.  TURN 
AROUND AND DON'T DROWN.

A FOLLOWUP PRODUCT WILL BE ISSUED LATER. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER 
RADIO...LOCAL TV AND RADIO STATIONS...OR YOUR CABLE PROVIDER...FOR 
THE LATEST INFORMATION.  THE LATEST GRAPHICAL HYDROLOGIC INFORMATION 
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WEATHER.GOV.

&&

LAC105-210842-
/O.EXT.KLIX.FL.W.0019.000000T0000Z-120223T1424Z/
/ROBL1.1.ER.120218T1412Z.120221T0600Z.120223T0824Z.NO/
842 PM CST SUN FEB 19 2012

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING...THE FLOOD WARNING 
CONTINUES FOR
  THE TANGIPAHOA RIVER NEAR ROBERT.
* UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING.
* AT 7:30 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 16.6 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE RISING UNTIL 
  CRESTING AT AROUND 17.0 FEET BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE RIVER 
  IS EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE EARLY 
  THURSDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 17.0 FEET...LOW PLACES ALONG HIGHWAY 22 SOUTH OF ROBERT 
  WILL BE UNDER WATER. WATER WILL APPROACH THE ENTRANCE ROAD OF 
  HIDDEN OAKS CAMPGROUND. TRAILERS AT THE CAMPGROUND WILL BE UNABLE 
  TO BE MOVED OUT WHEN THE RIVER REACHES 18 FEET.
* IMPACT...AT 16.0 FEET...MINOR FLOODING NEAR THE RIVER WITH BEACH 
  AREAS UNDER WATER.
* IMPACT...AT 15.0 FEET...MINOR FLOODING NEAR THE RIVER.


$$

632 
WGUS84 KLIX 201516
FLSLIX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS BATON ROUGE LA 
916 AM CST MON FEB 20 2012

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN
LOUISIANA...

THE TANGIPAHOA RIVER NEAR ROBERT AFFECTING TANGIPAHOA PARISH 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FORECAST CRESTS ARE BASED UPON RAINFALL THAT HAS OCCURRED ALONG WITH 
ANTICIPATED RAIN FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECASTS 
WILL BE MADE IF ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURS.

DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS.  REMEMBER...TWO FEET OF
RUSHING WATER CAN CARRY AWAY MOST VEHICLES INCLUDING PICKUPS.  TURN 
AROUND AND DON'T DROWN.

A FOLLOWUP PRODUCT WILL BE ISSUED LATER. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER 
RADIO...LOCAL TV AND RADIO STATIONS...OR YOUR CABLE PROVIDER...FOR 
THE LATEST INFORMATION.  THE LATEST GRAPHICAL HYDROLOGIC INFORMATION 
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WEATHER.GOV.

&&

LAC105-212116-
/O.EXT.KLIX.FL.W.0019.000000T0000Z-120224T0400Z/
/ROBL1.1.ER.120218T1412Z.120221T0600Z.120223T2200Z.NO/
916 AM CST MON FEB 20 2012

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING...THE FLOOD WARNING 
CONTINUES FOR
  THE TANGIPAHOA RIVER NEAR ROBERT.
* UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING.
* AT 8:30 AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 17.2 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 17.9 FEET 
  BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE
  ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON FEBRUARY 23RD.
* IMPACT...AT 17.0 FEET...LOW PLACES ALONG HIGHWAY 22 SOUTH OF ROBERT
  WILL BE UNDER WATER. WATER WILL APPROACH THE ENTRANCE ROAD OF
  HIDDEN OAKS CAMPGROUND. TRAILERS AT THE CAMPGROUND WILL BE UNABLE
  TO BE MOVED OUT WHEN THE RIVER REACHES 18 FEET.

$$

499 
WGUS84 KLIX 210102
FLSLIX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS BATON ROUGE LA 
702 PM CST MON FEB 20 2012

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
LOUISIANA...
 
  TANGIPAHOA RIVER NEAR ROBERT AFFECTING TANGIPAHOA PARISH 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FORECAST CRESTS ARE BASED UPON RAINFALL THAT HAS OCCURRED ALONG WITH 
ANTICIPATED RAIN FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECASTS 
WILL BE MADE IF ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURS.

DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS.  REMEMBER...TWO FEET OF
RUSHING WATER CAN CARRY AWAY MOST VEHICLES INCLUDING PICKUPS.  TURN 
AROUND AND DON'T DROWN.

A FOLLOWUP PRODUCT WILL BE ISSUED LATER. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER 
RADIO...LOCAL TV AND RADIO STATIONS...OR YOUR CABLE PROVIDER...FOR 
THE LATEST INFORMATION.  THE LATEST GRAPHICAL HYDROLOGIC INFORMATION 
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WEATHER.GOV.

&&

LAC105-220702-
/O.EXT.KLIX.FL.W.0019.000000T0000Z-120224T0448Z/
/ROBL1.1.ER.120218T1412Z.120221T1200Z.120223T2248Z.NO/
702 PM CST MON FEB 20 2012

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING...THE FLOOD WARNING 
CONTINUES FOR
  THE TANGIPAHOA RIVER NEAR ROBERT.
* UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING.
* AT  6:30 PM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 17.6 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 17.9 FEET BY 
  TOMORROW MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE THURSDAY 
  AFTERNOON FEBRUARY 23RD..
* IMPACT...AT 17.0 FEET...LOW PLACES ALONG HIGHWAY 22 SOUTH OF ROBERT 
  WILL BE UNDER WATER. WATER WILL APPROACH THE ENTRANCE ROAD OF 
  HIDDEN OAKS CAMPGROUND. TRAILERS AT THE CAMPGROUND WILL BE UNABLE 
  TO BE MOVED OUT WHEN THE RIVER REACHES 18 FEET.
* IMPACT...AT 16.0 FEET...MINOR FLOODING NEAR THE RIVER WITH BEACH 
  AREAS UNDER WATER.


$$

355 
WGUS84 KLIX 211559
FLSLIX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS BATON ROUGE LA 
959 AM CST TUE FEB 21 2012

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
LOUISIANA...

THE TANGIPAHOA RIVER NEAR ROBERT AFFECTING TANGIPAHOA PARISH 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FORECAST CRESTS ARE BASED UPON RAINFALL THAT HAS OCCURRED ALONG WITH
ANTICIPATED RAIN FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECASTS
WILL BE MADE IF ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURS.

DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS. REMEMBER...TWO FEET OF
RUSHING WATER CAN CARRY AWAY MOST VEHICLES INCLUDING PICKUPS. TURN
AROUND AND DON'T DROWN.

A FOLLOWUP PRODUCT WILL BE ISSUED LATER. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER 
RADIO...LOCAL TV AND RADIO STATIONS...OR YOUR CABLE PROVIDER...FOR 
THE LATEST INFORMATION. THE LATEST GRAPHICAL HYDROLOGIC INFORMATION
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WEATHER.GOV.

&&

LAC105-222159-
/O.EXT.KLIX.FL.W.0019.000000T0000Z-120223T1700Z/
/ROBL1.1.ER.120218T1412Z.120221T1030Z.120223T1100Z.NO/
959 AM CST TUE FEB 21 2012

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE TANGIPAHOA RIVER NEAR ROBERT.
* UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING.
* AT 8:30 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 17.6 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER HAS CRESTED AND IS EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FLOOD 
  STAGE BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE RIVER IS THEN EXPECTED TO FALL
  TO A STAGE NEAR 12.1 FEET ON FRIDAY MORNING FEBRUARY 24TH.
* IMPACT...AT 17.0 FEET...LOW PLACES ALONG HIGHWAY 22 SOUTH OF ROBERT
  WILL BE UNDER WATER. WATER WILL APPROACH THE ENTRANCE ROAD OF
  HIDDEN OAKS CAMPGROUND. TRAILERS AT THE CAMPGROUND WILL BE UNABLE
  TO BE MOVED OUT WHEN THE RIVER REACHES 18 FEET.

$$

497 
WGUS84 KLIX 220144
FLSLIX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS BATON ROUGE LA 
744 PM CST TUE FEB 21 2012

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
LOUISIANA...
 
  TANGIPAHOA RIVER NEAR ROBERT AFFECTING TANGIPAHOA PARISH 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FORECAST CRESTS ARE BASED UPON RAINFALL THAT HAS OCCURRED ALONG WITH 
ANTICIPATED RAIN FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECASTS 
WILL BE MADE IF ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURS.

DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS.  REMEMBER...TWO FEET OF
RUSHING WATER CAN CARRY AWAY MOST VEHICLES INCLUDING PICKUPS.  TURN 
AROUND AND DON'T DROWN.

A FOLLOWUP PRODUCT WILL BE ISSUED LATER. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER 
RADIO...LOCAL TV AND RADIO STATIONS...OR YOUR CABLE PROVIDER...FOR 
THE LATEST INFORMATION.  THE LATEST GRAPHICAL HYDROLOGIC INFORMATION 
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WEATHER.GOV.

&&

LAC105-230744-
/O.EXT.KLIX.FL.W.0019.000000T0000Z-120223T1617Z/
/ROBL1.1.ER.120218T1412Z.120221T1030Z.120223T1017Z.NO/
744 PM CST TUE FEB 21 2012

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE TANGIPAHOA RIVER NEAR ROBERT.
* UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING.
* AT  6:30 PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 17.4 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  THURSDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 17.0 FEET...LOW PLACES ALONG HIGHWAY 22 SOUTH OF ROBERT 
  WILL BE UNDER WATER. WATER WILL APPROACH THE ENTRANCE ROAD OF 
  HIDDEN OAKS CAMPGROUND. TRAILERS AT THE CAMPGROUND WILL BE UNABLE 
  TO BE MOVED OUT WHEN THE RIVER REACHES 18 FEET.
* IMPACT...AT 16.0 FEET...MINOR FLOODING NEAR THE RIVER WITH BEACH 
  AREAS UNDER WATER.
* IMPACT...AT 15.0 FEET...MINOR FLOODING NEAR THE RIVER.


$$

611 
WGUS84 KLIX 221504
FLSLIX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS BATON ROUGE LA 
904 AM CST WED FEB 22 2012

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
LOUISIANA...

THE TANGIPAHOA RIVER NEAR ROBERT AFFECTING TANGIPAHOA PARISH 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FORECAST CRESTS ARE BASED UPON RAINFALL THAT HAS OCCURRED ALONG WITH 
ANTICIPATED RAIN FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECASTS 
WILL BE MADE IF ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURS.

DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS.  REMEMBER...TWO FEET OF
RUSHING WATER CAN CARRY AWAY MOST VEHICLES INCLUDING PICKUPS.  TURN 
AROUND AND DON'T DROWN.

A FOLLOWUP PRODUCT WILL BE ISSUED LATER. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER 
RADIO...LOCAL TV AND RADIO STATIONS...OR YOUR CABLE PROVIDER...FOR 
THE LATEST INFORMATION.  THE LATEST GRAPHICAL HYDROLOGIC INFORMATION 
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WEATHER.GOV.

&&

LAC105-231017-
/O.EXT.KLIX.FL.W.0019.000000T0000Z-120223T1017Z/
/ROBL1.1.ER.120218T1412Z.120221T1030Z.120223T0417Z.NO/
904 AM CST WED FEB 22 2012

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE TANGIPAHOA RIVER NEAR ROBERT.
* UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.
* AT 8:30 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 16.4 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY
  TONIGHT. THE RIVER IS THEN EXPECTED TO FALL TO A STAGE NEAR 11.7
  FEET BY FRIDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 16.0 FEET...MINOR FLOODING NEAR THE RIVER WITH BEACH
  AREAS UNDER WATER.

$$

821 
WGUS84 KLIX 230111
FLSLIX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS BATON ROUGE LA 
711 PM CST WED FEB 22 2012

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
LOUISIANA...
 
THE TANGIPAHOA RIVER NEAR ROBERT AFFECTING TANGIPAHOA PARISH
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FORECAST CRESTS ARE BASED UPON RAINFALL THAT HAS OCCURRED ALONG WITH 
ANTICIPATED RAIN FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECASTS 
WILL BE MADE IF ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURS.

DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS.  REMEMBER...TWO FEET OF
RUSHING WATER CAN CARRY AWAY MOST VEHICLES INCLUDING PICKUPS.  TURN 
AROUND AND DON'T DROWN.

A FOLLOWUP PRODUCT WILL BE ISSUED LATER. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER 
RADIO...LOCAL TV AND RADIO STATIONS...OR YOUR CABLE PROVIDER...FOR 
THE LATEST INFORMATION.  THE LATEST GRAPHICAL HYDROLOGIC INFORMATION 
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WEATHER.GOV.

&&

LAC105-230141-
/O.CAN.KLIX.FL.W.0019.000000T0000Z-120223T1017Z/
/ROBL1.1.ER.120218T1412Z.120221T1030Z.120222T2251Z.NO/
711 PM CST WED FEB 22 2012

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE TANGIPAHOA RIVER NEAR ROBERT.
* AT 6:30 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 14.7 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER HAS FALLEN BELOW FLOOD STAGE AND NO FLOODING
  IS EXPECTED.    
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO 10.7 FEET BY FRIDAY 
  MORNING.


$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
722 AM CST THU FEB 16 2012

.UPDATE...
...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

SLIGHT PROBLEM THIS MORNING WITH RH VALUES FOR A FEW MINUTES EARLY
IN THE FLIGHT BUT OVERALL NO SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS. SOUNDING SHOWS
WE HAVE DRIED OUT QUITE A BIT SINCE THE EVENING FLIGHT LAST
NIGHT...WITH THE PW DROPPING NEARLY AN INCH TO AROUND 0.6 INCHES.
FRONT ON OUR DOORSTEP AT LAUNCH AS HAMMOND AND MCCOMB HAD SEEN
THEIR WINDS SHIFT AND THE WIND SHIFT IS NOW OCCURRING HERE IN
SLIDELL AND IN THE NEW ORLEANS AREA. THAT SAID...STILL A LOT OF
MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND SOME MIST AND FOG ISSUES ARE
NOTED ACROSS THE AREA. ABOVE AROUND 7000 FEET...THE COLUMN DRIES
WITH LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE FROM THAT POINT TO AROUND 22K FEET.
WINDS ARE UNIDIRECTIONAL NOW...OUT OF THE WEST.

98/SO

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CST THU FEB 16 2012/

SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS LARGELY MOVED EAST OF THE
LOCAL AREA WELL AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE BOUNDARY
LAYER NEVER COMPLETELY DESTABILIZED...SO THUNDERSTORMS REMAINED
MOSTLY ELEVATED...AND NO SEVERE WEATHER WAS REPORTED ACROSS THE
AREA.

A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...INDICATED IN THE SURFACE OBS BY A CLEAR
WIND SHIFT AXIS...EXTENDS FROM EASTERN KENTUCKY SOUTHWARD THROUGH
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. BASED ON THE
LOCATION OF THE TIGHTEST TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT GRADIENTS...THE
ACTUAL COLD FRONT IS STILL LAGGING BEHIND AND CURRENTLY EXTENDS
FROM EXTREME SOUTHERN ILLINOIS SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS AND INTO CENTRAL TEXAS.

SHORT TERM...
FOR THE VERY SHORT TERM...VISIBILITIES HAVE DROPPED SIGNIFICANTLY
JUST WEST OF OUR LOCAL FORECAST AREA NOW THAT RAIN HAS MOVED AWAY
LEAVING LIGHT WINDS AND A SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER BEHIND. AS THE
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA...EXPECT VISIBILITY TO DROP OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO...WITH SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRAG ITS HEELS AND MOVE SLOWLY
EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...COMING TO A HALT SOMEWHERE JUST
OFF SHORE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. WITH THAT SAID...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE GULF WATERS AND EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA.

BY TONIGHT...A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO BEGIN DEVELOPING ON THE
TAIL END OF THE STALLED FRONT OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN TEXAS. AS
THE LOW FORMS IT SHOULD BEGIN TO FORCE THE STALLED FRONT NORTHWARD
LATE TONIGHT. WITH THE FRONT IN THE AREA...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. HAVE BUMPED POPS UP
SLIGHTLY INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA FOR TONIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

EXPECT THE WARM FRONT TO LINGER IN THE AREA FRIDAY AS THE LOW
CONTINUES TO TAKE SHAPE...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL
SPREADING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE BUMPED POPS UP
CONSIDERABLY NOW THAT IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING
NORTHWARD SOONER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. WILL CARRY A
NORTH/SOUTH POP GRADIENT WITH HIGH END CHANCE POPS NORTH TO HIGH
END LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT...MAINLY OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA.

LONG TERM...
WET WEATHER LOOKS TO PERSIST INTO SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW
MOVES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FINALLY FORCING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR SATURDAY EVENING.
SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN THE MODEL FORECASTS WITH
THE GFS STILL CONTAINING THE FASTEST SOLUTION AND THE NAM
CONTAINING THE SLOWEST SOLUTION. HAVE ONCE AGAIN GENERALLY GONE
WITH A CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF...WHICH RESULTS IN A
FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE MID AFTERNOON FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE AREA AND THE LATE AFTERNOON FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA.

THE SET UP FOR SATURDAY WILL RESULT IN A FEW HAZARDOUS WEATHER
THREATS. IT LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL.
AMPLE MOISTURE SHOULD BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WITH MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING PW VALUES OF 1.75 TO 2.0 INCHES BY
12Z SATURDAY...WHICH IS ROUGHLY 250 PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. WITH THAT SAID...SOME OF THESE STORMS ARE GOING TO
BE VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. WHEN ADDING THE ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL ON TOP OF SOILS THAT ARE NEAR SATURATED DUE TO RECENT
RAINFALL...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING MAY BECOME A PROBLEM. WILL
CONTINUE TO ASSESS THE AREA OF GREATEST RISK OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AND MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
AND INTO SATURDAY.

IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT...THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER IS INDICATING A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR SATURDAY...BUT THIS MAY BE A BIT
OVERDONE BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE CURRENT FORECAST
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. WITH THE LOW FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...LOOKS LIKE THE AREA OF GREATEST RISK WOULD
BE ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST LA AND POSSIBLY ACROSS THE MS GULF
COAST AS WELL. HOWEVER...SIMILAR TO THE SYSTEM THAT JUST MOVED
THROUGH THE AREA...THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL LIKELY BE ONLY WEAK
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. THE CURRENT MODEL FORECASTS ARE
INDICATING CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 200 AND 400 J/KG ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. MOST UNSTABLE CAPES ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER...BUT IT LOOKS
LIKE THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE. MAIN THREATS
FROM ANY SEVERE WEATHER WILL ONCE AGAIN BE STRONG/DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WIND...THOUGH AND ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. HAIL DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A THREAT WITH WEAK LAPSE RATES IN
THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE.

ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...EXPECT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO
IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE ACROSS
THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN WHERE SUSTAINED NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED. THE GUST
POTENTIAL WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS STRONG GUSTS MAY
CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR RIDERS IN SEVERAL PARADES
SCHEDULED TO ROLL SATURDAY EVENING AND SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
FOR THOSE THAT INCLUDE TALLER FLOATS.

AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA...EXPECT COOL/DRY CONDITIONS
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO IMPACT THE AREA
TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL FORECASTS. HAVE GENERALLY MADE ONLY
MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FAR EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST DUE TO
LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY GIVEN SOLUTION. FOR THE TIME BEING...WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY BROAD BRUSHED 30 TO 40 PERCENT POPS TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

AVIATION...
SLOW MOVING WEAK COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING WITH VERY MOIST AIR ON
BOTH SIDES SUPPORTING LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG. ADDITIONAL
DECREASE IN SHRA THROUGH 12Z AND REDUCED MIXING SHOULD CAUSE A
LOWERING OF CLOUD BASES AND ASSOCIATED VSBYS. AM EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD LIFR TO DEVELOP MAINLY DUE TO CIGS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT THAT HIGH THAT FOG WILL BECOME DENSE ENOUGH TO BRING CONDITIONS
TO BELOW AIRPORT MINIMUMS. THE LOWER CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST THROUGH
AT LEAST MID MORNING BEFORE WARMING OCCURS LATE IN THE MORNING. MVFR
TO VFR IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN AREAS OF
LOWERED CONDITIONS TO IFR OR POSSIBLY LIFR ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN AFTER
MIDNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

MARINE...
FOG IS OCCURRING ON BOTH SIDES OF THE FRONT WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL
DENSE FOG BEHIND THE FRONT OFF THE SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA COAST. FOG
HAS BEEN REPORTED ON PORTIONS OF THE CAUSEWAY BRIDGE WITH
VISIBILITIES DOWN TO NEAR ONE HALF MILE IN SPOTS. THE SLOW MOVEMENT
OF THE FRONT MAY MAKE IT HARD FOR THE FOG TO GET INTO THE WARMER
COASTAL WATERS...BUT FOG IS LIKELY TO PERSIST AND POSSIBLY EXPAND
OVER THE COOLER WATERS FROM LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN ACROSS LAKE BORGNE TO
THE MISSISSIPPI SOUND...SO A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THAT AREA UNTIL 10 AM TODAY.

WEAK COLD FRONT IS ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH NEAR THE COAST OR NEAR
SHORE WATERS TODAY BEFORE GETTING A NUDGE A BIT FARTHER SOUTH
TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST TRIES TO
BUILD A BIT SOUTH. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE...AND
REMAIN MOSTLY AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS. THERE IS A BIT OF A SWELL
TRAIN FROM PERSISTENT STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE OFFSHORE
WATERS...SO SEAS OF 3 TO 4 FEET WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE TODAY.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES EAST TO
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION ON SATURDAY. STRONG
WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED ON THE WARM SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM BY
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...AND EVEN MORE LIKELY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A LARGE COMPLEX OF STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY THREATEN A LARGE AREA OF THE NORTH GULF
OF MEXICO SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH POSSIBLE WIND GUSTS
OVER 50 KNOTS AND POSSIBLE WATERSPOUTS.

DECISION SUPPORT... /EXPERIMENTAL/
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION..NONE.
ACTIVITIES...MONITORING MINOR RIVER FLOODING AND RIVER RISES
              DUE TO RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL
             MONITORING DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT IN MARINE AREAS
             ASSESSING HEAVY RAINFALL AND TSTM POTENTIAL FOR FRIDAY
              AND SATURDAY
             ASSESSING STRONG WIND POTENTIAL ACROSS SOUTH SHORE
              AREA FOR SATURDAY EVENING AND SATURDAY NIGHT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR AND/OR
         DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  74  53  63  52 /  10  10  50  60
BTR  76  56  67  57 /  10  20  70  70
ASD  76  57  65  57 /  20  20  60  60
MSY  75  57  67  59 /  30  30  70  70
GPT  74  57  65  57 /  30  30  60  60
PQL  76  55  68  56 /  40  30  50  60

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

MS...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
506 AM CST THU FEB 16 2012

GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577-LAZ034>037-
039-040-046>050-056>072-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-171115-
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
LAKE BORGNE-CHANDELEUR SOUND-BRETON SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO
60 NM-POINTE COUPEE-WEST FELICIANA-EAST FELICIANA-ST. HELENA-
WASHINGTON-ST. TAMMANY-IBERVILLE-WEST BATON ROUGE-
EAST BATON ROUGE-ASCENSION-LIVINGSTON-ASSUMPTION-ST. JAMES-
ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-UPPER LAFOURCHE-ST. CHARLES-UPPER JEFFERSON-
ORLEANS-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST. BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-
LOWER TERREBONNE-LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER JEFFERSON-
LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST. BERNARD-NORTHERN TANGIPAHOA-
SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA-WILKINSON-AMITE-PIKE-WALTHALL-PEARL RIVER-
HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON-
506 AM CST THU FEB 16 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA...SOUTH MISSISSIPPI AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AREAS OF FOG WILL IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR BODIES
OF WATER. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TIDAL LAKES
AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND THROUGH 10 AM.

FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT ALONG THE PEARL RIVER NEAR
BOGALUSA AND NEAR PEARL RIVER...AND ALONG THE ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
NEAR MORGAN CITY. RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL HAS ALSO LED TO RISES ON
SEVERAL OTHER AREA RIVERS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST RIVER FLOOD
STATEMENTS AND FORECASTS FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. SOME
STORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
MAY BECOME A THREAT. THE HEAVY RAIN MAY ALSO LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT
RISES ON SEVERAL AREA RIVERS. ADDITIONALLY...THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER IS INDICATING A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE
REGION. THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
STRONG AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE AREAS OF GREATEST RISK FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE REFINED OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PLEASE MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST
PRODUCTS FOR THE MOST RECENT INFORMATION.

FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON SATURDAY...GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPACT AREAS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. GUST
POTENTIAL WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED ACROSS THE REGION AS STRONG
GUSTS MAY RESULT IN HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR RIDERS IN SEVERAL
PARADES SCHEDULED FOR SATURDAY EVENING.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON DUE TO STRONG SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT. STRONG WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FORECAST TO
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTERS...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...AND OTHER PUBLIC SAFETY
OFFICIALS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER ON SATURDAY.

95/DM