Freeze Warning 3, NWS New Orleans, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
422 AM CST THU JAN 12 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A 1017MB LOW OVER CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI ALONG A COLD FRONT FROM GREAT LAKES REGION TO WEST
TENNESSEE TO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. IN ADDITION...A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS EXISTED OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND 1036MB HIGH OVER CENTRAL ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS WAS NOTED FROM THE DAKOTAS TO NORTH LOUISIANA

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL QUICKLY DIVE SOUTHEAST
NORTHWEST ZONES THIS MORNING AND CLEARING THE MARINE ZONES BY 19Z.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH 40 TO 60M DROP FROM 12Z TO 18Z WILL
HAMPER TEMPERATURES FROM RISING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AS A
RESULT...WILL CONFINE MOST HIGH TEMPS TO THIS MORNING THEN STEADY
OR SLOW FALL THIS AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE STILL COMING IN
WITH A FREEZE FOR MOST AREAS TONIGHT AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT. 1000
TO 700MB OFF OF GFS SHOW AN ADDITIONAL 40M DROP THIS AFTERNOON AND
HOLDING STEADY AROUND 2825M THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT BUT NOT COMPLETELY CALM AND STRONG CAA WILL LOWER
TEMPS TO THE MID 20S OR HARD FREEZE ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI...COASTAL MISSISSIPPI AND EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
BILOXI...GULFPORT AND BATON ROUGE MAY BE BORDERLINE AS FAR AS A
HARD FREEZE OF 26F FOR FOUR HOURS.
MCCOMB...HAMMOND...SLIDELL...BOGALUSA MAY EXPERIENCE TEMPS AT OR
BELOW 26F FOR 4 HOURS...7 TO 9 HOURS POSSIBLY NEAR MCCOMB. SOUTH
OF THE LAKE...WINDS MAY KEEP AREAS DIRECTLY SOUTH ABV 32F BUT WEST
BANK OF THE NOLA METRO AREA WILL SEE TEMPS DIP BELOW 32F AND
POSSIBLY UPPER 20S AT BELLE CHASE...HOUMA AND RIVER PARISHES
FRIDAY MORNING. A COOL FRIDAY WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS STRUGGLING TO
REACH 50F FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH WILL FINALLY SLIDE OVER
SOUTH LOUISIANA BY 12Z SATURDAY. WHILE CAA WILL CEASE EARLY FRIDAY...CALM
WINDS AND CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL BE IDEAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING
AREA WIDE AND THINK A FREEZE WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE SAME AREAS
SATURDAY MORNING. HEIGHTS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE AS THE MAIN TROUGH
AXIS PULLS NORTHEAST...SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER FORECAST AREA
BUT ONLY NORTH ZONES WILL EXPERIENCE ANOTHER FREEZE SUNDAY
MORNING. A SLIGHT WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
NEXT TUESDAY. MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS FOR THIS PERIOD BUT ADDED
CONVECTION AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY MAY BE PRESENT...BUT ONLY
INSERTED SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANGE IN THE WIND SPEED AND
DIRECTION AROUND 15-18Z TODAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
AND INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THESE
STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z TOMORROW. THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE FOUND AT KNEW AND KMSY...WHERE GUSTS OVER 30 KNOTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 18Z AND 12Z. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF CLOUD COVER AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH...DUE TO A VERY DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE. 32

&&

.MARINE...

HIGH END SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS ALL OF THE MARINE ZONES AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.  STRONG COLD AND DRY AIR
ADVECTION...COMBINED WITH BOUNDARY LAYER GRADIENT FLOW IN EXCESS OF
30 KNOTS...WILL EASILY ALLOW FOR SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS OF 25 KNOTS
WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OVER 30 KNOTS.  THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH A SHARP DROP OFF IN WINDS EXPECTED TOMORROW
MORNING AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES.  SEAS WILL ALSO INCREASE
DRAMATICALLY OVERNIGHT...WITH SEAS OUT BEYOND 20 NM PUSHING 8 TO 9
FEET.  AFTER THE WINDS DROP OFF...SEAS WILL FALL MORE SLOWLY WITH A
RETURN TO 2 TO 3 FEET SEAS EXPECTED TOMORROW NIGHT.   HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE GULF SOUTH THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND CALM SEAS EXPECTED.  WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES TO THE EAST...AND A
BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER TEXAS.  EXPECT A RETURN
TO EXERCISE CONDITIONS ON MONDAY AS THIS PRESSURE DIFFERENTIAL
INCREASES. 32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  49  24  50  25 /  10   0  10  10
BTR  52  26  51  27 /  10   0  10  10
ASD  55  24  51  25 /  10   0  10  10
MSY  56  32  50  31 /  10   0  10  10
GPT  58  26  51  27 /  10   0  10  10
PQL  58  24  51  24 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY TO 8 AM FRIDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ASSUMPTION...ORLEANS...ST. CHARLES...ST.
     JAMES...ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER
     LAFOURCHE...UPPER PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST. BERNARD...AND
     UPPER TERREBONNE.

     HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THURSDAY TO 8 AM FRIDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ASCENSION...EAST BATON ROUGE...EAST
     FELICIANA...IBERVILLE...LIVINGSTON...NORTHERN
     TANGIPAHOA...POINTE COUPEE...SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA...ST.
     HELENA...ST. TAMMANY...WASHINGTON...WEST BATON ROUGE...AND
     WEST FELICIANA.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
     THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM
     20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE
     ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS
     OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

MS...HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THURSDAY TO 8 AM FRIDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES:
     AMITE...HANCOCK...HARRISON...JACKSON...PEARL
     RIVER...PIKE...WALTHALL...AND WILKINSON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
     THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM
     20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE
     ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS
     OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
710 PM CST WED JAN 11 2012

GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577-LAZ034>037-
039-040-046>050-056>072-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-130115-
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
LAKE BORGNE-CHANDELEUR SOUND-BRETON SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO
60 NM-POINTE COUPEE-WEST FELICIANA-EAST FELICIANA-ST. HELENA-
WASHINGTON-ST. TAMMANY-IBERVILLE-WEST BATON ROUGE-
EAST BATON ROUGE-ASCENSION-LIVINGSTON-ASSUMPTION-ST. JAMES-
ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-UPPER LAFOURCHE-ST. CHARLES-UPPER JEFFERSON-
ORLEANS-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST. BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-
LOWER TERREBONNE-LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER JEFFERSON-
LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST. BERNARD-NORTHERN TANGIPAHOA-
SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA-WILKINSON-AMITE-PIKE-WALTHALL-PEARL RIVER-
HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON-
710 PM CST WED JAN 11 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA...SOUTH MISSISSIPPI AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS LATE
TONIGHT. WINDS AND WAVES HAVE EASED OVER SOME OF THE NEAR
SHORE...BAY AND LAKE WATERS...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME HAZARDOUS
ACROSS ALL WATERS BY LATE TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

COLD AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH FREQUENT HIGHER GUSTS CAN
BE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
MOST OF THURSDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
MARINE AREA WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ON THE
COASTAL WATERS...SOUNDS AND TIDAL LAKES.

IN ADDITION...COLD OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES MAY RESULT IN A FREEZE
AREA WIDE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA COAST AND AREAS DIRECTLY SOUTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A
HARD FREEZE IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...PARTS OF
COASTAL MISSISSIPPI AND PARTS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA NORTH OF
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN FRIDAY MORNING...AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY
MORNING.

ADDITIONAL HAZARDS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY JANUARY 17TH.

22/TD