Flash Flood Watch 12, NWS New Orleans, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
746 AM CDT TUE SEP 4 2012

.UPDATE...
...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

NO PROBLEMS WITH THE FLIGHT THIS MORNING. THE SOUNDING SHOWS A
GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS THIS MORNING WITH A
FEW CLOUDS AROUND THE AREA AROUND 2K FEET. ABOVE THAT...A BIT
DRIER IN THE MID LEVELS BUT MOISTURE RETURNS AROUND H4 WITH SOME
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. OVERALL...PW VALUES DOWN A BIT SINCE LAST
EVENING AND ARE NOW AROUND 1.7. WINDS ARE OUT OF THE WEST AT THE
SURFACE AND OUT OF THE NORTH ALOFT.

98/SO

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT TUE SEP 4 2012/

SHORT TERM...
WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH AT THURSDAY AS THE
FORECAST AREA REMAINS ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES APPROACHING 106 DEGREES. HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON
ISSUING A HEAT ADVISORY FOR TODAY BUT ONE MIGHT BE NEEDED
TOMORROW. THERE ARE STILL A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF PEOPLE WITHOUT
POWER DUE TO ISAAC AND THEY WILL HAVE TO BE VERY CAREFUL WITH THE
HEAT. IF YOU HAVE ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES OR CLEAN UP GOING ON
PLEASE STAY HYDRATED AND TAKE BREAKS FROM TIME TO TIME TO COOL
OFF. WITH THE AREA ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF A HIGH A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS COULD ROTATE AROUND THE HIGH AND MAKE IT INTO THE FORECAST
AREA MAINLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 55. WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW.

LONG TERM...
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND THERE COULD BE SOME RELIEF TO THE HEAT AS
MODELS SHOW DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH BRINGING WITH IT A
FAIRLY STOUT COULD FRONT. HAVE DEPICTED THIS FEATURE IN FORECAST
THIS WEEKEND. INCREASED POPS FOR SATURDAY AS COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO COME THROUGH. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH VERY NICE CONDITIONS FOR THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. 13/MH

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTN. BY 20/21Z CONVECTION WILL PROBABLY
BEGIN TO PUSH INTO COASTAL MS FROM THE NE IMPACTING PQL AND GPT.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL TRY TO PERSIST AND WORK TO THE WSW INTO SELA. THE
TERMINAL MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED WOULD BE ASD BUT CONVECTION MAY
PERSIST LONG ENOUGH TO MOVE INTO NEW AND MSY. TERMINALS ALONG AND
WEST OF 55 WILL LIKELY REMAIN FREE OF CONVECTION. /CAB/

MARINE...
OVERALL THINGS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY QUIET THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 10-15 KTS OVER THE
GULF WATERS OUT OF THE SW FOR THE NEXT 48 HRS AND COULD EVEN PICK UP
TO 15-20KTS EAST OF THE DELTA DURING THE EVNG AND OVERNIGHT HRS.
BIGGEST CHANGE WILL COME LATE THIS WEEK AND ESPECIALLY THIS WEEKEND.
A WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER THE NERN GULF COAST AND ACROSS
THE SERN CONUS AND THIS SHOULD INITIALLY GET WINDS TO VEER AROUND TO
ERLY AND POSSIBLY OFFSHORE BUT THIS IS JUST THE BEGINNING. HADING
INTO SAT NIGHT A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE GULF
AND WINDS STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND IT SUN MORNING.
SCY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. /CAB/

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...RED.
DEPLOYED...ER-MET TO GOHSEP, ER-MET TO SLIDELL.
ACTIVATION...OZONE AMATEUR RADIO NETWORK AT MOBILE COMMAND.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER AND RESIDUAL SURGE FLOOD FIGHT SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR AND/OR
         DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  94  73  94  74 /  10  10  10  20
BTR  95  75  95  75 /  10  10  10  20
ASD  93  76  92  76 /  30  40  30  30
MSY  91  77  91  77 /  20  30  30  30
GPT  90  76  91  76 /  40  40  50  30
PQL  90  76  91  75 /  50  50  50  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

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