Coastal Flood Warning 3, NWS New Orleans, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
656 AM CDT THU AUG 30 2012

.SHORT TERM...
RESIDUAL STORM SURGE BANDS ISSUES NEAR LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND
MAUREPAS...ESPECIALLY ON THE NORTH AND WEST SIDE...SERIOUS TO
EXTREME FLASH FLOODING ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM ISAAC...AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM. WILL
HAVE AT LEAST TWO FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCIES IN EFFECT EARLY THIS
MORNING FOR THE SLIDELL AND PASCAGOULA AREAS. HAVE EXTENDED THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE FAR WESTERN TIER NEAR
THE ATCHAFALAYA RIVER THROUGH 7 PM TODAY. SPIRAL BANDS WILL BECOME
STATIONARY AT TIMES AND PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP
TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR AND A FEW BRIEF SPIN-UP TORNADOES. FLASH
FLOODING ASSOCIATED WITH HEAVY RAINFALL COMBINED WITH HIGH TIDES
AND SURGE WILL BE FURTHER AGGRAVATED BY LACK OF DRAINAGE. A NEW
TORNADO WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT SOON.

ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWEST AND NORTH ACROSS NORTH
LOUISIANA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. RAINFALL AND
THUNDERSTORM FEEDER BANDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TIME...BUT
SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME LESS NUMEROUS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. DEEP
LAYER HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD IN FROM THE EAST
SATURDAY...SO A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL...SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN ALONG WITH HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS.
HEAT INDICES WILL LIKELY EXCEED 100 DEGREES AND POSSIBLY ABOVE 105
DEGREES. THIS WILL BECOME A GREATER CONCERN BECAUSE OF RELIEF AND
RECOVERY WORK...AND A LACK OF AIR CONDITIONING THAT WILL LIKELY
STILL EXIST IN THE MOST AFFECTED AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN.

.LONG TERM...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED WITH A WEAK FLOW/WIND PATTERN AT ALL
LEVELS. THE MAIN STORY WILL BE HOT AND HUMID WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS...AND SCATTERED...HIT OR MISS
TYPE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 22/TD

&&

.AVIATION...
HAZARDOUS...BUT SLOWLY IMPROVING WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE DURING THE THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS TROPICAL STORM
ISAAC PULLS OFF TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST AND AWAY FROM THE
AREA...RAIN AND RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL VERY
SLOWLY DIMINISH. 11

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT WILL HAVE TO REMAIN IN PORT TODAY WHILE TROPICAL STORM
WARNINGS AND CONDITIONS REMAIN. TONIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE 20 KNOTS...SO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE REQUIRED
FOR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING ONCE THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS
LOWERED. BEYOND THAT TIME...IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS DIMINISHING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST. 22/TD

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...RED.
DEPLOYED...DEPLOYED TO GOHSEP...MISSISSIPPI CRISIS ACTION CENTER AND
NEW ORLEANS EOC.
ACTIVATION...DEPLOYMENTS ABOVE WERE ACTIVATED MONDAY.
ACTIVITIES...MONITORING TROPICAL STORM ISAAC AND ASSOCIATED STORM
SURGE FLOODING AND FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCIES.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR AND/OR
         DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  84  74  89  74 / 100  60  60  20
BTR  86  77  91  77 /  90  60  60  20
ASD  86  78  90  75 /  90  50  60  20
MSY  87  79  90  78 /  90  50  60  20
GPT  86  78  88  77 /  90  50  60  20
PQL  86  77  88  75 /  80  50  50  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ASCENSION...EAST BATON ROUGE...EAST
     FELICIANA...LIVINGSTON...LOWER JEFFERSON...LOWER
     LAFOURCHE...LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
     BERNARD...NORTHERN TANGIPAHOA...ORLEANS...SOUTHERN
     TANGIPAHOA...ST. CHARLES...ST. HELENA...ST. JAMES...ST.
     JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST. TAMMANY...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER
     LAFOURCHE...UPPER PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST.
     BERNARD...WASHINGTON...WEST BATON ROUGE...AND WEST
     FELICIANA.

     TROPICAL STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ASCENSION...ASSUMPTION...EAST BATON ROUGE...EAST
     FELICIANA...IBERVILLE...LIVINGSTON...LOWER
     JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
     BERNARD...LOWER TERREBONNE...NORTHERN
     TANGIPAHOA...ORLEANS...POINTE COUPEE...SOUTHERN
     TANGIPAHOA...ST. CHARLES...ST. HELENA...ST. JAMES...ST.
     JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST. TAMMANY...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER
     LAFOURCHE...UPPER PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST. BERNARD...UPPER
     TERREBONNE...WASHINGTON...WEST BATON ROUGE...AND WEST
     FELICIANA.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     AMITE...HANCOCK...HARRISON...JACKSON...PEARL
     RIVER...PIKE...WALTHALL...AND WILKINSON.

     TROPICAL STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AMITE...HANCOCK...HARRISON...JACKSON...PEARL
     RIVER...PIKE...WALTHALL...AND WILKINSON.

GM...TROPICAL STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

&&

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1219 PM CDT THU AUG 30 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     FLASH FLOOD      PASCAGOULA              30.37N 88.55W
08/30/2012                   JACKSON            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING REPORTED IN PASCAGOULA AND
            SURROUNDING AREAS.

1100 AM     FLASH FLOOD      MOSS POINT              30.43N 88.53W
08/30/2012                   JACKSON            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WIDESPREAD STREET FLOODING REPORTED.

1152 AM     FLASH FLOOD      SLIDELL                 30.28N 89.78W
08/30/2012                   ST. TAMMANY        LA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            CITY OFFICIALS REPORTED SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE AND FLASH
            FLOODING IN SLIDELL. 18 INCHES TO 3 FEET WATER REPORTED
            IN OLD TOWN. WATER STILL RISING IN DELLWOOD AREA NEAR
            INTERSECTION OF FRONT STREET AND PONTCHARTRAIN DRIVE.

&&

22/TD