Special Weather Statement, NWS Lake Charles, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
711 PM CDT FRI AUG 10 2012

.UPDATE...
A QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE SOME OF OUR SE TX COUNTIES FM THE WATCH
AND ADD A FEW FURTHER EAST IN LA. SCT STRONG TO SVR STORMS
CONTINUE FROM NR BEAUMONT NE TOWARD ALEXANDRIA AND
MARKSVILLE...WITH AN ESPECIALLY POTENT AND PROLIFIC LIGHTNING
PRODUCING STORM JUST NE OF THE CWA DROPPING SWD TOWARD AVOYELLES
PARISH. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR ACTIVITY...BUT ANTICIPATE MOST OF
IT WILL BE DECREASING IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. 24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 617 PM CDT FRI AUG 10 2012/

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER E TX/C LA IGNITING SCT/NUM TSRA JUST S OF
THE BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE S THIS EVENING.
INCREASED CHANCE OF TSRA EXPECTED FOR BPT/LCH BY 01-02Z...AND
LFT/ARA BY 02-03Z THIS EVENING...WITH ACTIVITY LINGERING THRU
05-06Z. SVR WATCH 572 FOR SE TX/C AND SW LA THRU 05Z...NOT
INCLUDING LFT/ARA. ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY 06Z...BUT
NAM12 SHOWS REDEVELOPMENT TOWARDS 09-12Z ACROSS SC LA...WHICH
WOULD AFFECT LFT/ARA DURING THIS TIME. WILL WAIT FOR 00Z RUN TO
BITE ON THIS.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 501 PM CDT FRI AUG 10 2012/

SYNOPSIS...
RUNNING A LITTLE LATE ON THE AFD THIS AFTN...BUT THAT TURNED OUT
TO BE OK AS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 572 WAS ISSUED AS I WAS
PUTTING THIS TOGETHER EARLIER. ALREADY WENT AHEAD AND UPDATED
ZONE AND COASTAL FORECASTS FOR THE WATCH.

THE WATCH WAS PROMPTED BY A BAND OF STORMS THAT DEVELOPED QUICKLY
THIS AFTN ALONG A PREFRONTAL TROF FM NATCHEZ TO JASPER TO CONROE.
THESE STORMS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED AS THEY ENTERED A VERY MOIST AND
HEATED ATMOSPHERE ACRS SE TX AND WRN LA...AND ARE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ABUNDANT CG LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS AND VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

OTHERWISE...THE LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSES AND WV IMAGERY INDICATE
THE AREA IS BETWEEN A TROF TO THE EAST AND A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ACRS THE SRN ROCKIES AND SW STATES. THIS IS PRODUCING A
NLY FLOW ALOFT...WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES TRAVELING SOUTHWARD
TOWARD THE REGION. ABUNDANT MOISTURE PERSISTS OVER THE AREA PER
12Z SOUNDINGS WITH PW VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES. AT THE SFC...A COLD
FRONT WAS LOCATED FM GREENWOOD MS TO NR MONROE TO CENTERVILLE
TX...SEPARATING DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S FM DEWPOINTS IN THE MID
70S.

DISCUSSION...
THINGS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACTIVE FOR THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS
STORMS CONTINUE TO FIRE ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED TROF...WITH
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS HELPING TO MAINTAIN ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT. ACTIVITY WILL TRAVEL SOUTHWARD...AND SHOULD DIMINISH
BY MID-EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...ALTHOUGH
ANOTHER IMPULSE FURTHER UPSTREAM COULD BRING SOME MORE SCT
ACTIVITY LATE TONIGHT.

THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW FAR SOUTH WILL THE FRONT GET...AND
VARIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE NOT IN TOTAL AGREEMENT ON HOW MANY OF US WILL
SEE AT LEAST SOME RELIEF FM THE HUMIDITY. THE ECMWF AND NAM BOTH
SHOW THE FRONT STALLING JUST NR OUR NRN CWA BORDER...WHILE THE
CANADIAN...OPERATIONAL GFS AND GEM SHOW THE FRONT TREKKING FURTHER
SOUTH INTO THE CWA...ESSENTIALLY STALLING IT CLOSER TO THE I-10
CORRIDOR. HPC GUIDANCE EARLIER TODAY LEANED TOWARD THE FORMER
SOLUTIONS...BUT THE LATEST FCST SHOWS THE FRONT MOVING FURTHER
SOUTH BEFORE STALLING. FOR THE GRIDS...CHOSE A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE BUT WEIGHTED A LITTLE MORE ON THE NORTHERLY
SOLUTIONS...WITH THE FRONT MAKING IT THROUGH AT LEAST THE NRN
TIER OF COUNTIES/PARISHES.

EXPECT SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN SATURDAY...MAINLY ACRS
SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH THE FRONT GRADUALLY WASHING OUT
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH ON SUNDAY...WITH
A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME REESTABLISHED OVER THE NRN GULF AND GULF
COAST STATES...WITH AFTN HIGHS IN THE 90S AND LOWS IN THE 70S.

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL MAINTAIN A
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TONIGHT...WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING OVER THE WEEKEND AS A WEAK FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE
GULF COAST STATES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE MAINLY EAST OF SABINE PASS. A GENERALLY LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW...LOW SEAS AND MORE TYPICAL LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING SHOWERS
WILL RESUME INTO THE COMING WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
REESTABLISHED OVER THE GULF COAST.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  75  93  73  94 /  40  20  10  10
KBPT  76  93  74  94 /  40  20  10  20
KAEX  73  94  69  95 /  40  20  10  10
KLFT  76  92  73  95 /  50  30  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
400 AM CDT FRI AUG 10 2012

LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-
110900-
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-WEST CAMERON-
EAST CAMERON-TYLER-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-NORTHERN JASPER-
NORTHERN NEWTON-SOUTHERN JASPER-SOUTHERN NEWTON-
400 AM CDT FRI AUG 10 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST
CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. TYPICAL BRIEF
HEAVY RAINS AND CONSIDERABLE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY. NO ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ANTICIPATED...BUT A PULSE THUNDERSTORM BRIEFLY REACHING SEVERE LIMITS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY
AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND STALLS
NEAR THE COAST. AS WILL BE THE CASE TODAY...NO ORGANIZED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED....BUT A PULSE THUNDERSTORM BRIEFLY
REACHING SEVERE LIMITS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY NOT BE REQUIRED.

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-110900-
SABINE LAKE-CALCASIEU LAKE-VERMILION BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
LA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
400 AM CDT FRI AUG 10 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY...WITH
CHANCES LOWERING GOING INTO THE NEW WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
601 PM CDT FRI AUG 10 2012

LAZ030-041-TXZ201-215-216-259>262-110000-
HARDIN TX-NORTHERN JASPER TX-NORTHERN NEWTON TX-JEFFERSON TX-
BEAUREGARD LA-CALCASIEU LA-ORANGE TX-SOUTHERN JASPER TX-
SOUTHERN NEWTON TX-
601 PM CDT FRI AUG 10 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HARDIN...JASPER...NEWTON...
JEFFERSON AND ORANGE COUNTIES...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
BEAUREGARD AND CALCASIEU PARISHES UNTIL 700 PM CDT...

AT 556 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES
EAST OF FIELDS TO DEWEYVILLE TO BUNA TO LUMBERTON...MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 10 MPH.

* THE LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  EVADALE BY 610 PM...
  LUMBERTON BY 615 PM...
  DEWEYVILLE BY 625 PM...
  DE QUINCY AND WEISS BLUFF BY 630 PM...
  STARKS AND LUNITA BY 635 PM...
  LAKEVIEW BY 640 PM...

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THESE STORMS ARE CONTINUOUS LIGHTNING...PEA
TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS 40 TO 50 MPH...WHICH COULD DOWN
TREE LIMBS AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A
SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT SATURDAY
MORNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3042 9329 3012 9416 3035 9434 3067 9364

RUA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
643 PM CDT FRI AUG 10 2012

LAZ027-028-030>032-042-110045-
RAPIDES LA-EVANGELINE LA-BEAUREGARD LA-ALLEN LA-VERNON LA-
JEFFERSON DAVIS LA-
643 PM CDT FRI AUG 10 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR RAPIDES...EVANGELINE...
BEAUREGARD...ALLEN...VERNON AND JEFFERSON DAVIS PARISHES UNTIL 745 PM
CDT...

AT 638 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM ALEXANDRIA
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT TO HINESTON TO OBERLIN TO 9 MILES WEST OF DRY
CREEK...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

* THE LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  ALLEN PARISH AIRPORT AND ALEXANDRIA BY 655 PM...
  PINEVILLE AND OAKDALE BY 700 PM...
  GLENMORA AND DRY CREEK BY 705 PM...
  LIBUSE BY 710 PM...
  BOND AND BEAVER BY 715 PM...
  KOLIN BY 720 PM...

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THESE STORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...PEA TO
NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS 40 TO 50 MPH...WHICH COULD DOWN
TREE LIMBS AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A
SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES IN A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...RESULTING IN PONDING OF WATER AROUND LOW LYING
ROADWAYS. REMEMBER...DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO WATER COVERED
ROADWAYS. THE DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW A SAFE CROSSING.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT SATURDAY
MORNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3136 9223 3047 9273 3069 9329 3127 9300
      3140 9258

LANDRENEAU

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