Special Weather Statement, NWS Lake Charles, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1259 PM CDT MON AUG 6 2012

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOCAL 88DS SHOW SHOWERS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WITH TEMPS FINALLY EXCEEDING THE TRIGGER TEMP PER MORNING
SOUNDINGS. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN DEVELOPING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS ADDITIONAL HEATING FURTHER DESTABILIZES THE
ATMOSPHERE. FOR NOW HAVE JUST INCLUDED A VICINITY MENTION ALL
SITES BUT WILL INSERT TEMPO OR PREVAILING WORDING AS CONVECTION
BEGINS TO ENCROACH ON TERMINALS. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD
DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET AND ATTM VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 951 AM CDT MON AUG 6 2012/

UPDATE...AS WITH YESTERDAY, CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS AGAIN NOTED
WITH NVA, MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING AND POSSIBLY SOME CAPPING
AROUND NOON. THE PREVIOUS FCST DID WELL TO HOLD POPS CONSIDERABLY
BELOW EURO AND NAM GUIDANCE AND CLOSER TO THE GFS. WILL
CONSOLIDATE POPS TO 40 PERCENT. TEMPS NEEDED A TWEAK LOWER. WILL
NEED TO WATCH FOR STRONG PULSE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH
LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS SINCE CAPES REMAIN ABOVE 4K
JOULES WITH PRECIP WATER ABOVE 2 INCHES.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 643 AM CDT MON AUG 6 2012/

AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. SOME LIGHT FOG
CURRENTLY BEING REPORTED AT AEX AND ARA. NO VISIBILTY RESTRICTIONS
ELSEWHERE. FOG WILL RAPIDLY BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. AMPLE
MOISTURE AND A WEAKNESS ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A FEW PRIMARILY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY. CARRYING VCTS AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE ANTICIPATING
VFR...AND WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
AREA...WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 503 AM CDT MON AUG 6 2012/

DISCUSSION...
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S THIS MORNING. A BIT OF FOG IS BEING REPORTED AT SITES
ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. FURTHER TO OUR
NORTH A COOL FRONT HAS BECOME STALLED ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS AND
EXTENDS INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS. VERY LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
NOTED ALONG THE FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES ABOUT FIVE TO TEN DEGREES
COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT.

MEANWHILE ERNESTO CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND IS
LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA THIS MORNING. MAX SUSTAINED WINDS
REMAIN ARE AROUND 50 MPH. THE GENERAL MOVEMENT TO THE WEST AROUND
12 MPH. ERNESTO LOOKS TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND WILL MOVE INLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN
MEXICO.

OVER THE NORTHERN GULF...THE RIDGE ALOFT LOOKS TO ERODE TODAY AND
THIS IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO WORK DOWN THE
FRONT SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL HELP TO
KICK OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE ENDING. PRIOR TO STORMS
DEVELOPING TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 90S WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE REGION IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL
LOUISIANA TOUCHING THE MID 90S MARK. ONCE AGAIN IT IS GOING TO BE
HOT AND MUGGY.

TONIGHT WILL BE A REPEAT OF THIS MORNING BUT WITH A FEW STORMS
AROUND THE REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PULL
BACK TO THE WEST AND AMPLIFY OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL CONTINUE
THE ABILITY OF ENERGY TO MOVE DOWN THE FRONT SIDE OF THE RIDGE
AND INTO THE AREA OF TUESDAY. TUESDAY WILL BE HOT AND MUGGY BEFORE
THE RAINS. WE HAVE NOW ENTERED THE CLIMATOLOGICAL HOTTEST PORTION
OF THE YEAR. THIS PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH MOST OF THE
MONTH BEFORE FINALLY BREAKING AROUND THE END OF THE MONTH.
THEREAFTER IT WILL BE A SLOW FALL IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REST
OF THE YEAR.

RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS
DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTH WILL GRADUALLY WORK IT'S WAY INTO THE
REGION. THIS WILL AGAIN RAISE OUR TEMPS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES...
BUT THE THREAT FOR SOME AFTERNOON STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  92  75  93  75  93 /  40  20  30  10  20
KBPT  91  75  93  75  93 /  40  20  30  10  20
KAEX  94  74  96  74  95 /  40  20  30  10  20
KLFT  91  75  93  74  92 /  40  20  30  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
958 AM CDT MON AUG 6 2012

LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-
071100-
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-WEST CAMERON-
EAST CAMERON-TYLER-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-NORTHERN JASPER-
NORTHERN NEWTON-SOUTHERN JASPER-SOUTHERN NEWTON-
958 AM CDT MON AUG 6 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST
CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SIMILAR TO LAST FEW DAYS, SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH MAY BRIEFLY PULSE TO STRONG LEVELS WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING,
STRONG GUSTS, AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. SLOW MOVEMENT COULD
PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THIS SAME PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE WITH AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS, SOME BRIEFLY STRONG.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-071100-
SABINE LAKE-CALCASIEU LAKE-VERMILION BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
LA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
958 AM CDT MON AUG 6 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT. NO
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. NO
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

SWEENEY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
205 PM CDT MON AUG 6 2012

LAZ031-042-061945-
ALLEN LA-JEFFERSON DAVIS LA-
205 PM CDT MON AUG 6 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ALLEN AND JEFFERSON DAVIS
PARISHES UNTIL 245 PM CDT...

AT 200 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES NORTHEAST OF PINE ISLAND...MOVING
SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  PINE ISLAND BY 220 PM...
  WELSH BY 245 PM...

THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THIS STORM IS FREQUENT LIGHTNING. SEEK
SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 3013 9275 3027 9302 3048 9275 3043 9267

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