Special Weather Statement, NWS Lake Charles, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
331 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2012

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER EASTERN
ZONES THIS AFTERNOON...IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN INVERTED SFC TROF
COMING ASHORE THE LOUISIANA COAST AND A SHORTWAVE TROF TRAVERSING
THE NW GULF COAST REGION. WILL HOLD ON TO A SLIGHT CHANCE
GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-49 CORRIDOR INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...BUT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE AFTER SUNSET AS
DIURNALLY INDUCED INSTABILITY DIMINISHES. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT WITH THE TROPICAL AIRMASS IN PLACE.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY DECENT AGREEMENT INTO THE FIRST
HALF OR SO OF THE WEEKEND...BUILDING A MID TO UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
REGION AS THE SHORTWAVE TROF LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST.
WARM...DRY...AND HUMID SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE THE RESULT.
THEREAFTER...THE ECMWF IS CONSIDERABLY MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BREAKING
THE RIDGE DOWN THAN THE GFS...AND ACTUALLY SENDS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INTO THE AREA BY LATE MONDAY. THE PREFERRED HPC
SOLUTION...AND THE ONE FOLLOWED FOR THIS FORECAST...IS TO HOLD THE
RIDGE IN PLACE THROUGH MIDWEEK...THUS KEEPING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AT BAY WELL TO OUR NORTH.

13

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING TO EAST OF THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN A
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  71  85  71  85 /  10  10  10  10
KBPT  71  85  71  85 /  10  10  10  10
KAEX  68  87  68  87 /  10  10  10  10
KLFT  70  87  69  87 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
423 AM CDT WED MAY 2 2012

LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-
031100-
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-WEST CAMERON-
EAST CAMERON-TYLER-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-NORTHERN JASPER-
NORTHERN NEWTON-SOUTHERN JASPER-SOUTHERN NEWTON-
423 AM CDT WED MAY 2 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST
CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS...WITH A BETTER CHANCE FURTHER EASTWARD
INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER
IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ONLY A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE GULF STATES. NO HAZARDOUS
WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-031100-
SABINE LAKE-CALCASIEU LAKE-VERMILION BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
LA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
423 AM CDT WED MAY 2 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS OFF OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...WITH A BETTER CHANCE
FURTHER EASTWARD OFF THE LOUISIANA COAST. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
507 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2012

LAZ032-033-022230-
ST. LANDRY LA-EVANGELINE LA-
507 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ST. LANDRY AND EVANGELINE
PARISHES UNTIL 530 PM CDT...

AT 503 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 2 MILES WEST OF WHITEVILLE...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT
5 MPH.

* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  INDIAN LAKE BY 525 PM...
  CHICOT STATE PARK BY 530 PM...

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND PEA TO
NICKEL SIZE HAIL. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THIS
STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 3065 9219 3079 9237 3084 9227 3084 9212
      3079 9204

TINGLER