Special Weather Statement, NWS Lake Charles, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
347 PM CDT FRI APR 20 2012

.DISCUSSION...A SHORT WAVE IS CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY INCLUDING TX, AND A COLD FRONT IS ALSO
PUSHING INTO EAST TX. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, HEATING CONTINUES AND
TDS HAVE ALSO INCREASED A FEW DEGREES OVER THE PAST 24HRS. HEATING
AND A BIT OF MID LVL COOLING HAVE RESULTED IN A EROSION OF THE CAP
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, AND STORMS ARE NOW ONGOING ACROSS THE
NW SECTIONS OF THE CWA. SURFACE BASED CAPE HAS INCREASED INTO THE
1000-1500 J/KG RANGE PER THE SPC MESOANALYSIS AND MID LVL LAPSE
RATES ARE MODERATELY STEEP. ALL OF THIS TOGETHER AND... AS THE
FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING MORE STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. SPC HAS ISSUED A WATCH FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH 8PM. LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS ARE
THE MAIN THREATS AS SHEAR IS FAIRLY LOW. AS DAYTIME HEATING IS
LOST THE SVR WX IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH, HOWEVER THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY AND UPPER DIVERGENCE CREATED BY THE SHORT WAVE AND
DEVELOPING UPPER LOW WILL ALLOW RAIN TO CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT
FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. AS THE UPPER LOW QUICKLY TRANSITS THE
AREA FROM WEST TO EAST AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN, RAIN CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH. BY SUNRISE SAT A FEW SHOWERS MAY STILL BE LINGERING IN
SOUTH CENTRAL LA, BUT THIS IS EXPECTED TO EXIT BY AFTERNOON. LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NE GULF SAT MORNING AND
MOVE TOWARD FL WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR LOCAL AREA.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SYSTEMS WILL LEAD TO BREEZY
CONDITIONS DURING SATURDAY. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE
PRESENT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, AND A DRY SECONDARY FRONT WILL PASS
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT COOLING THE AREA A FEW DEGREES FOR MONDAY,
BUT OVERALL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AND REMAIN
OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH TRANQUIL CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BEYOND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WINDS INCREASING BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NE GULF WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN AND THIS WILL CREATE SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL OF THE
COASTAL WATERS, LAKES, AND BAYS. THE COASTAL LAKES AND BAYS WILL
EXPERIENCE MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS WHICH WILL SUBSIDE DURING
SATURDAY. FARTHER INTO THE GULF WINDS WILL INCREASE AND GUST TO OR
JUST OVER GALE FORCE LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY
BEYOND 20 NAUTICAL MILES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS TO DIMINISH AND
REMAIN TRANQUIL THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  58  73  51  80  54 /  70  10  10   0   0
KBPT  56  74  53  82  58 /  60  10  10   0   0
KAEX  53  70  48  78  51 /  70  10  10   0   0
KLFT  58  70  51  80  56 /  60  20  10   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO
     CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO
     HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 PM CDT SATURDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...SABINE LAKE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 1 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: VERMILION BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM CDT SUNDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO
     HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL
     CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
100 PM CDT FRI APR 20 2012

LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-
211000-
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-WEST CAMERON-
EAST CAMERON-TYLER-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-NORTHERN JASPER-
NORTHERN NEWTON-SOUTHERN JASPER-SOUTHERN NEWTON-
100 PM CDT FRI APR 20 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST
CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. SOME ISOLATED STORMS MAY BE
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA INTO THIS
EVENING. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL END TONIGHT AS DRIER AND
COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-211000-
SABINE LAKE-CALCASIEU LAKE-VERMILION BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
LA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
100 PM CDT FRI APR 20 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE
NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE WATERS LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS BEGINNING AROUND MIDNIGHT.
MARINERS SHOULD STAY ADVISED ON THE LATEST WEATHER CONDITIONS AND
FORECASTS BEFORE VENTURING OFFSHORE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
WE MAY BE REQUESTING RIG REPORTS OF STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
FRONTAL THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

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