Areal Flood Advisory 3, NWS North Platte, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
344 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOSED LOW OVER THE 4 CORNERS AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO. WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM
THIS SURFACE LOW INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. CLEARING OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WITH CU
FIELDS DEVELOPING WARM FRONT FRONT SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO AND WARM FRONT INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. DRYLINE BACK INTO
NORTHEAST COLORADO. TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWEST...PORTIONS
OF WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED SOME FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS HAVE KEPT MENTION OF RAIN SNOW MIX
OVER HIGHER ELEVATION OF THE EAST NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. STRONG
GRADIENT WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY. A
HIGH WIND WARNING IS STILL NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. A RAW DAY
ACROSS THE AREA AS UPPER LOW SHEARS OUT OVER NORTH PLATTE THROUGH
THE DAY ON SUNDAY. UPPER LOW LOOSENS ITS GRIP SUNDAY NIGHT BUT A
SECONDARY WAVE MOVING IN FAST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CLIP THE
FORECAST AREA AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK SYSTEMS CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK
MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WITH SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO
NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
ALTHOUGH NOT CONTINUOUS...THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE TAF SITES
THROUGH INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL OCCUR AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
EASTERN COLORADO INTENSIFIES AND MOVES NORTHEAST INTO  WESTERN
NEBRASKA TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS NEAR A WARM FRONT OVER
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA ...THEN MOVE NORTHEAST. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
HAIL...VERY STRONG WINDS...LIGHTNING AND TORNADOES. THE SURFACE LOW
WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BY SUNDAY MORNING
WHICH WILL PUSH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WIND ADVISORY FROM
7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ TO 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/
SUNDAY FOR NEZ004-005-022>025-035>037-056>059-069>071-094.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR NEZ006>010-
026>029-038.

&&

SHORT TERM/EXTENDED...POWER
AVIATION...BROOKS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
337 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-152045-
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-
GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-
LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
WESTERN CHERRY-
337 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012 /237 PM MDT SAT APR 14 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY
CONTAIN VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES. THE STORMS
WILL TRACK NORTHEAST.

A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS GENERALLY EAST
OF A LINE FROM STOCKVILLE...THROUGH SUTHERLAND...MULLEN...AND
VALENTINE. JUST TO THE EAST...A HIGH RISK AREA EXTENDS GENERALLY
EAST OF A LINE FROM CALLAWAY...THROUGH BREWSTER...AND ONEILL.
PLEASE STAY TUNED FOR UPDATED INFORMATION AS THIS SIGNIFICANT
EVENT UNFOLDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

AS THE STRONG STORM SYSTEM LIFTS FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO
MINNESOTA ON SUNDAY...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH WILL OCCUR ALONG WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS
LIFTING ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW FOR AREAS WEST OF VALENTINE THROUGH OGALLALA
SUNDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATOLOGICAL INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NORTHPLATTE

BROOKS

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