Special Marine Warning 385, NWS Key West, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
544 AM EDT THU OCT 25 2012

.DISCUSSION...
HURRICANE SANDY IS NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN CUBAN COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING...AS A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE. CLOSER TO THE KEYS...POCKETS
OF RAIN AND ISOLATED HEAVIER SHOWERS ARE PASSING QUICKLY THROUGH THE
SERVICE AREA...CONCENTRATED MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN.
STRONGER INDIVIDUAL CONVECTIVE CORES ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THESE SMALL
AREAS. EARLY MORNING IR SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW MORE PERSISTENT DENSE
CLOUDS OVER THE KEYS SERVICE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN 75 AND 80 DEGREES AT ISLAND SENSORS. AVAILABLE CMANS IN THE
SERVICE AREA ARE CLOSE TO 20 KNOTS SUSTAINED...OCCASIONALLY GUSTING
NEAR 35 KNOTS IN OUR EASTERN WATERS.

HURRICANE SANDY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE
NORTHEAST CUBAN COAST THIS MORNING...AND CROSS THE BAHAMAS LATER
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED
SIGNIFICANTLY FROM OUR PREVIOUS ISSUANCE OF PRODUCTS. ALTHOUGH THE
FORECAST TRACK OF SANDY HAS BEEN NUDGED VERY SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST IN
THE SHORT TERM...THAT ADJUSTMENT IS NOT LARGE AT ALL. AN EXPANDED
WIND FIELD OF SANDY AS IT SEPARATES FROM THE CUBAN COAST SHOULD KEEP
CONDITIONS VERY CLOSE TO WHAT WE HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING OVER THE PAST
FEW CYCLES. THERE IS NO NEED TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE ZONE
FORECAST ON THE UPCOMING ISSUANCE. EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY
THROUGH AT LEAST LATE FRIDAY. WE SHOULD SEE WIND GUSTS ABOVE 30 MPH
OVER THE BULK OF THE ISLAND CHAIN FROM TODAY THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 35 MPH IN THE UPPER KEYS LATER
TODAY...TONIGHT AND THROUGH FRIDAY. A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE KEYS WAS
CONTEMPLATED. BUT THE EXPECTATION OF REACHING THAT CRITERIA AT THIS
TIME IS MARGINAL...AND DECIDED AGAINST THAT HEADLINE. NONETHELESS...TRAVEL
ON THE OVERSEAS HIGHWAY FOR THE NEXT FEW PERIODS WILL BE AFFECTED BY
THE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES. ALLOW EXTRA TIME TRAVELING THROUGH THE KEYS FOR THE BALANCE
OF THIS WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALSO CONTEMPLATED RAISING OUR
RAIN CHANCES IN THE IMMEDIATE AND SHORT TERM...BUT THE RECENT RADAR
TREND ARGUES AGAINST THAT. STILL A MID RANGE CHANCE OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION ALL ISLAND LOCATIONS. POCKETS OF RAIN AND BRIEF HEAVIER
SHOWERS WILL ALSO AGGRAVATE THE WINDY CONDITIONS.

THE GRIDDED WEATHER ELEMENTS FOR THE MID THROUGH LATE PERIODS OF
THIS FORECAST WERE NOT ADJUSTED. EXPECT COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO WORK
INTO THE KEYS EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE SHOULD SEE A BREAK FROM THE
RELATIVELY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS THAT HAVE LINGERED THUS FAR INTO
THE SEASON. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL SETTLE CLOSER TO SOUTH
FLORIDA AND THE KEYS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...FINALLY ALLOWING
WINDS TO SLACKEN.

&&

.MARINE...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THE ATLANTIC WATER
BEYOND THE REEF OF THE UPPER KEYS...FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY OUT
TO 60 NM. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HAWK CHANNEL
ADJACENT TO THE UPPER KEYS...THE UPPER KEYS...AND FLORIDA BAY. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS SURROUNDING THE
FLORIDA KEYS...EXCEPT BEYOND THE REEF OFF THE UPPER KEYS WHERE THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE WINDS TURN FROM THE
NORTHEAST EARLY TODAY...THROUGH THE NORTH TONIGHT...AND MORE TO THE
NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY. A MODERATING TREND FOR WINDS IS NOT EXPECTED
UNTIL LATE THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THAT TREND MAY
BE COUNTERED BY COOLER AND DRIER AIR MIXING CLOSER TO THE SURFACE
THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
THROUGH 26/06Z...VFR...MIXED WITH BRIEF MVFR FROM FAST MOVING
SHOWERS...WILL PREVAIL AT THE EYW AND MTH TERMINALS. WIND GUSTS
APPROACHING 30 KNOTS MAY ACCOMPANY THE SHOWERS. NORTH NORTHEAST
SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS
WILL GRADUALLY BACK AROUND TO NEARLY DUE NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. UPON SANDYS CLOSEST APPROACH...THE WINDOW FOR STRONGEST
CROSSWINDS WINDS WILL BE 18 THROUGH 00Z.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR FLZ076.
GM...TROPICAL STORM WARNING GMZ052-072.
     TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR GMZ031-042.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GMZ031>034-042>044-053>055-073>075.

&&

PUBLIC/MARINE.........04
HAZARDS/HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...JACOBSON
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....CLR
DATA COLLECTION.......ULRICH

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST

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