Special Marine Warning 14, NWS Key West, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1021 PM EST FRI FEB 10 2012

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE KEYS AREA IN A WEAK PATTERN WELL AHEAD OF
A FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE PANHANDLE INTO THE WEST-CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...NEARLY CALM AT NUMEROUS
REPORTING STATIONS ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN. LATE EVENING IR SATELLITE
IMAGES SHOW HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING EASTWARD ACROSS THE KEYS...WITH
THICKER CUMULUS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTIVE CELLS MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE STRAITS. A LARGE AREA
OF LIGHT RAIN IS EXPANDING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA.

THE LATE EVENING LOCAL SOUNDING SHOWS A MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE UNDER
A VERY DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. WE ARE CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE WITH A
PWAT AROUND 1.6 INCHES. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ENCROACH
THE KEYS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE WINDS WILL PROGRESSIVELY
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. THE AFTERNOON ZONE ISSUANCE HAS
THE EXPECTED CONDITIONS COVERED. ALTHOUGH THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
INCREASES...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO ONLY DROP A FEW DEGREES FROM THEIR
PRESENT READINGS IN THE LOWER 70S. NO ZONE UPDATE IS PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
AS WITH THE ZONES...THE AFTERNOON FORECAST FOR THE COASTAL WATERS HAS
THE EXPECTED CONDITIONS COVERED OVERNIGHT. THE LATE EVENING UPDATE
WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY ADJUSTMENTS. EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
TO PICK UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST...REACHING 10 TO 15 KNOTS BY EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. THE COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO CROSS THE KEYS
SATURDAY AS WINDS STRENGTHEN FROM THE NORTHWEST. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...
THROUGH 11/18Z: PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE
KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS AFTER 09Z...AS A STRONG COLD FRONT
SURGES SOUTHEASTWARD AND APPROACHES THE KEYS DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. PLEASE CHECK THE OVERNIGHT TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR UPDATES ON
TIMING AND INTENSITY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS FROM JUST OFF THE SURFACE UP TO 3000 FEET
WILL BECOME WESTERLY AFTER 09Z AND INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KNOTS...AND
THEN NORTHWESTERLY NEAR 20 KNOTS AFTER 15Z AT EYW AND MTH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1895...THE LOW TEMPERATURE
AT KEY WEST PLUMMETED TO 49 DEGREES. THE HIGH TEMPERATURE ONLY
REACHED 59 DEGREES. BOTH OF THESE VALUES SET RECORDS FOR THE DAILY
LOW AND COLD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...RESPECTFULLY...AT KEY WEST.
THESE RECORDS REMAIN STANDING 117 YEARS LATER. THIS WAS A PROLONGED
COLD WEATHER EVENT IN 1895 FOR THE KEYS...AS THIS WAS THE THIRD
CONSECUTIVE DAY IN WHICH A DAILY RECORD COLD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE WAS
ESTABLISHED AT KEY WEST. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK
TO 1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC/MARINE.........04
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....NELSON
DATA COLLECTION.......ULRICH

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
604 AM EST FRI FEB 10 2012

FLZ076>078-GMZ031>034-042>044-052>055-072>075-111100-
MONROE UPPER KEYS-MONROE MIDDLE KEYS-MONROE LOWER KEYS-
FLORIDA BAY INCLUDING BLACKWATER AND BUTTONWOOD SOUNDS-
BAYSIDE AND GULF SIDE FROM CRAIG KEY TO HALFMOON SHOAL OUT TO
5 FATHOMS-
GULF WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE 20 TO 60 NM OUT
AND BEYOND 5 FATHOMS-
GULF OF MEXICO INCLUDING DRY TORTUGAS AND REBECCA SHOAL CHANNEL-
HAWK CHANNEL FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY OUT TO THE REEF-
HAWK CHANNEL FROM CRAIG KEY TO WEST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE OUT
TO THE REEF-
HAWK CHANNEL FROM WEST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO HALFMOON SHOAL
OUT TO THE REEF-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY OUT 20 NM-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM CRAIG KEY TO WEST END OF SEVEN MILE
BRIDGE OUT 20 NM-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM WEST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO SOUTH OF
HALFMOON SHOAL OUT 20 NM-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM HALFMOON SHOAL TO 20 NM WEST OF DRY
TORTUGAS OUT 20 NM-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY 20 TO 60 NM OUT-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM CRAIG KEY TO WEST END OF SEVEN MILE
BRIDGE 20 TO 60 NM OUT-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM WEST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO SOUTH OF
HALFMOON SHOAL 20 TO 60 NM OUT-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM HALFMOON SHOAL TO 20 NM WEST OF DRY
TORTUGAS 20 TO 60 NM OUT-
604 AM EST FRI FEB 10 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS. OTHERWISE...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED ALONG THE FLORIDA KEYS.

THE PRIMARY THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS WILL BE CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING
STRIKES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE REQUIRED ON ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS
FOR AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS
WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.