Areal Flood Warning 1, NWS Key West, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1026 AM EDT MON APR 30 2012

.DISCUSSION...
A CLUSTER OF STRONG STORMS REMAINS PERSISTENT IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS
BEYOND 20 NM SOUTH OF THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS...IN THE VICINITY OF
A LOW LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. OTHER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIFTING
NORTHWESTWARD IN THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS AWAY FROM THE UPPER KEYS.
LIGHTER AND MORE WIDELY SPACE SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE BAY...THE
FLORIDA KEYS...AND NEARBY GULF WATERS. FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG
WINDS ARE MAINLY EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE KEYS SERVICE
AREA...WITH A NORTHEASTERLY COMPONENT IN THE WESTERN HALF.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN AT
THIS HOUR. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ARE MORE PREVALENT IN THE
LOWER KEYS AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS...BUT OVERALL MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE.

THE LARGE AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS/TSTMS EARLIER OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE KEYS HAS WANED. THE LOCAL MORNING SOUNDING SHOWS
A VERY MOIST AND CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. WITH THE SURFACE
TROUGH ALIGNED ACROSS THE SERVICE AREA...A BROAD MID LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION ALMOST DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WHICH IS NOT MOVING ANYWHERE
SOON...AND A WEAK UPPER TROUGH...THE RAIN CHANCES REMAIN HIGH IN THE
SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE RADAR TRENDS
AND THE NATURE OF THE CONVECTION CURRENTLY DEPICTED ON KBYX DOPPLER
RADAR...CUT OUR RAIN CHANCES BACK A LITTLE FROM THE EARLY MORNING
ZONE ISSUANCE. LIKELY POPS REMAIN THOUGH. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE
INCORPORATED IN THE RECENTLY ISSUED ZONE UPDATE.

&&

.MARINE...
DROPPED OUR EXPECTED SHOWER COVERAGE BACK TO NUMEROUS AS OPPOSED TO
WIDESPREAD FOR THE DURATION OF TODAY. BUT THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY
OF SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN PLACE FOR ALL WATERS SURROUNDING THE FLORIDA KEYS
THANKS TO FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST/EAST WINDS IN PLACE. LIKE THE
ZONES...NO OTHER CHANGES WERE INCLUDED IN THE RECENTLY UPDATED
COASTAL WATERS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
THROUGH 01/06Z: PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT EYW
AND MTH...AS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS DEVELOP OVER THE REGION
AND MOVE QUICKLY WESTWARD. HOWEVER...TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THESE
SHOWERS REMAINS IN QUESTION. PLEASE CHECK THE LATEST TERMINAL
FORECASTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND EVENING HOURS...AS TIMELY
AMENDMENTS WILL BE ISSUED AS NECESSARY BASED ON SHORT-TERM RADAR
TRENDS. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED FROM
JUST OFF THE SURFACE UP TO 4000 FEET AT EYW AND MTH.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GMZ031>034-042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

PUBLIC/MARINE.........04
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....NELSON
DATA COLLECTION.......ULRICH

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
910 PM EDT SUN APR 29 2012

FLZ076>078-GMZ031>034-042>044-052>055-072>075-301000-
MONROE UPPER KEYS-MONROE MIDDLE KEYS-MONROE LOWER KEYS-
FLORIDA BAY INCLUDING BLACKWATER AND BUTTONWOOD SOUNDS-
BAYSIDE AND GULF SIDE FROM CRAIG KEY TO HALFMOON SHOAL OUT TO 5
FATHOMS-
GULF WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE 20 TO 60 NM OUT AND
BEYOND 5 FATHOMS-
GULF OF MEXICO INCLUDING DRY TORTUGAS AND REBECCA SHOAL CHANNEL-
HAWK CHANNEL FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY OUT TO THE REEF-
HAWK CHANNEL FROM CRAIG KEY TO WEST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE OUT TO
THE REEF-
HAWK CHANNEL FROM WEST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO HALFMOON SHOAL
OUT TO THE REEF-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY OUT 20 NM-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM CRAIG KEY TO WEST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE
OUT 20 NM-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM WEST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO SOUTH OF
HALFMOON SHOAL OUT 20 NM-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM HALFMOON SHOAL TO 20 NM WEST OF DRY TORTUGAS
OUT 20 NM-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY 20 TO 60 NM OUT-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM CRAIG KEY TO WEST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE
20 TO 60 NM OUT-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM WEST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO SOUTH OF
HALFMOON SHOAL 20 TO 60 NM OUT-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM HALFMOON SHOAL TO 20 NM WEST OF DRY TORTUGAS
20 TO 60 NM OUT-
910 PM EDT SUN APR 29 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. THE PRIMARY THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS WILL BE
CLOUD TO SURFACE LIGHTNING STRIKES AND WIND GUSTS NEAR 45 MPH.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER AND
MIDDLE KEYS...WHICH MAY RESULT IN STREET FLOODING AND PONDING OF
WATER IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO...FLORIDA BAY...AND THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF HAWK
CHANNEL AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS DUE TO SUSTAINED NORTHEAST TO EAST
SURFACE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 KNOTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER AND
MIDDLE KEYS MONDAY...WHICH MAY RESULT IN STREET FLOODING AND PONDING
OF WATER IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE PRIMARY THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS WILL BE CLOUD TO
SURFACE LIGHTNING STRIKES AND WIND GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS
MONDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR ALL KEYS
COASTAL WATERS MONDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED
FOR ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE
REQUIRED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE ATLANTIC TUESDAY NIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WE ARE ALWAYS INTERESTED IN RAINFALL AND THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST
MEASUREMENTS. PLEASE FEEL FREE TO REPORT THESE AT ANY TIME.

BS