Flash Flood Watch 3, NWS JSJ

247 
WGCA62 TJSJ 310139
FFASJU

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
939 PM AST MON JUL 30 2012

PRZ001>006-012-013-VIZ001-002-311000-
/O.CAN.TJSJ.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-120731T2000Z/
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FF.A.0004.120731T0600Z-120731T2000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-
NORTH CENTRAL-CENTRAL INTERIOR-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-ST CROIX-
INCLUDING THE MUNICIPALITIES AND/OR ISLANDS OF...SAN JUAN...
CAROLINA...FAJARDO...HUMACAO...GUAYAMA...ARROYO...YABUCOA...
SALINAS...COCO...CAGUAS...ARECIBO...VEGA BAJA...DORADO...COAMO...
COROZAL...AIBONITO...VILLALBA...JAYUYA...CULEBRA...ESPERANZA...
ANNA'S RETREAT...CHARLOTTE AMALIE...CHARLOTTE AMALIE EAST...
CHARLOTTE AMALIE WEST...CRUZ BAY...CHRISTIANSTED...FREDERIKSTED...
FREDERIKSTED SOUTHEAST...GROVE PLACE
939 PM AST MON JUL 30 2012

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM AST TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND VIRGIN 
  ISLANDS...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN PUERTO RICO... 
  CENTRAL INTERIOR...CULEBRA...EASTERN INTERIOR...NORTH CENTRAL... 
  NORTHEAST...SAN JUAN AND VICINITY...SOUTHEAST AND VIEQUES. IN 
  VIRGIN ISLANDS...ST CROIX AND ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT 
  ISLANDS. 

* FROM 2 AM AST TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON

* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL APPEAR LIKELY OVERNIGHT THROUGH
  TUESDAY AS TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL
  AREA. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE
  BETWEEN 5 AM AND 11 AM ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
  ISLANDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL
  AND PRODUCE SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME
  WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS AND URBAN AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLOODING. IF YOU
ARE IN THE WATCH AREA...CHECK YOUR PREPAREDNESS REQUIREMENTS...
ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE INTERESTS ALONG AREA RIVERS. KEEP
INFORMED...AND BE READY FOR QUICK ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED
OR IF A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED.

PEOPLE IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE AWARE OF THE
POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. AVOID LOW LYING AREAS...AND BE
CAREFUL WHEN APPROACHING HIGHWAY DIPS AND UNDERPASSES. THE
HEAVY RAIN COULD ALSO CAUSE MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TV...RADIO OR YOUR
CABLE TELEVISION PROVIDER FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU OR AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV.

&&

$$

PRZ007>011-311000-
/O.CAN.TJSJ.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-120731T2000Z/
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FF.A.0004.120731T1500Z-120731T2000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
PONCE AND VICINITY-NORTHWEST-WESTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-
SOUTHWEST-
INCLUDING THE MUNICIPALITIES AND/OR ISLANDS OF...PONCE...AGUADILLA...
ISABELA...HATILLO...QUEBRADILLAS...UTUADO...SABANA GRANDE...LARES...
ADJUNTAS...HORMIGUEROS...MOCA...AGUADA...LUYANDO...CABO ROJO...LAJAS
939 PM AST MON JUL 30 2012

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING THE 
  FOLLOWING AREAS...MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY...NORTHWEST...PONCE AND 
  VICINITY...SOUTHWEST AND WESTERN INTERIOR. 

* FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON

* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MAINLY TUESDAY
  AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO. SHOWERS AND
  THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL AND PRODUCE FLOODING IN
  URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLOODING. IF YOU
ARE IN THE WATCH AREA...CHECK YOUR PREPAREDNESS REQUIREMENTS...
ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE INTERESTS ALONG AREA RIVERS. KEEP
INFORMED...AND BE READY FOR QUICK ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED
OR IF A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED.

PEOPLE IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE AWARE OF THE
POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. AVOID LOW LYING AREAS...AND BE
CAREFUL WHEN APPROACHING HIGHWAY DIPS AND UNDERPASSES. THE
HEAVY RAIN COULD ALSO CAUSE MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TV...RADIO OR YOUR
CABLE TELEVISION PROVIDER FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU OR AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV.

&&

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1128 AM AST MON JUL 30 2012

.UPDATE...THE AXIS AND LEADING OF THE ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE
CONTINUE TO CROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS AND ENTER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. GOOD CONVECTIVE OUTBURSTS WAS NOTED IN AND AROUND THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE WAVE WITH SEVERAL OUTFLOWS PROPAGATING
WESTWARD TOWARDS AND AFFECTING PARTS OF THE LOCAL REGION. SO FAR
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND MARINE REPORTS SUGGESTS AVERAGE WIND GUSTS
OF 25-30 MPH ACCOMPANYING THE THUNDERSTORMS AND RAIN BANDS/SQUALLS
BUT ISOLATED HIGHER GUSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE TISX REPORTED GUSTS
OF 47 MPH. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDINESS
AND DETERIORATION IN THE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS DURING THE REST OF THE DAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY...AS THE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
FIELD SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE
TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST GRIDS FOR NOW BASED ON PRESENT
CONDITIONS AND LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH HAD A FAIRLY GOOD
HANDLE ON THE PRESENT WEATHER PATTERN. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
AND REASONING LOOKED GOOD FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...SHRA/ISOLD TSRA WITH SCT-BKN CLD LYRS BTW 018-050K
FT CONTD TO MOVE WESTWARDS ACROSS ERN AND BTW NRN LEEWARDS AND VIRGIN
ISLANDS. CLUSTERS OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS NOTED IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING
TROPICAL WAVE EN ROUTE BTW PR AND THE NRN LEEWARDS WITH ISOLD EMBEDDED
CB WITH MAX TOPS ESTIMATED BTW 300-350K FT...ESPECIALLY VCNTY TCNM...TKPN...
AND TAPA. EXPCT THIS AND ADDITONAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE WESTWARD
AND BRIEFLY AFFECT TISX AND TIST DURG REST OF AFTN...THEN SPREAD ACROSS
PR...TJSJ...TJNR AND THE REST OF THE TAF SITES...AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED.
SFC WND GUST OF 25-35 KTS OR HIGHER WILL BE LIKELY AT ALL TAF SITES
LATER TODAY ESPECIALLY ACCOMPANYING THE MODERATE TO STRONG TSTMS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 555 AM AST MON JUL 30 2012/

SYNOPSIS...AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE LESSER
ANTILLES THIS MORNING WILL AFFECT THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION AFTER
THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA...LOCATED IN
THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS BY THE WEEKEND.

DISCUSSION...BANDS OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF
AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE...HAVE BEEN AFFECTING PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE
WESTWARD...AFFECTING MOST OF PUERTO RICO WITH FAST MOVING PASSING
SHOWERS THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS THROUGH EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...AVAILABLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WAVE WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECT...PROMISE
TO BRING AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE CORDILLERA
CENTRAL AND THE MUNICIPALITIES OF SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO. LATER
TONIGHT...THE ACTIVE WEATHER ASSOCIATE WITH THE WAVE...WILL MOVE
OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...BRINGING WITH
IT...NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.
LATEST GFS90 MODEL RUN ACCUMULATIVE PRECIPITATION...INDICATED
BETTER CHANCES FOR RAINFALL OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO
AND OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT. HOWEVER...LOCAL
EFFECTS...IN ADDITION TO THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE...PROMISE TO
BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE AREA. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF
THE WAVE LATE TUESDAY...SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING
MOISTURE FROM THE DEEP TROPICS WHICH WILL MAINTAIN UNSETTLED
WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR THE LATER PART OF
THE WEEK...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND A DRIER AIR MASS AT LOWER
LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIMIT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND. IN FACT...PROG SOUNDINGS
INDICATED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE WILL GO AS HIGH AS 2.25 INCHES
BY TUESDAY...AND THEN WILL DROP TO NEAR 1.3 INCHES SUNDAY. IN THE LONG
TERM...COMPUTER MODELS INDICATED A SURFACE LOW LOCATED EARLY THIS
MORNING IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST
AND IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE CARIBBEAN WATERS BY SUNDAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS FEATURE NEXT FEW DAYS.

AVIATION...GENERALLY EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE MORE FREQUENT MVFR...WITH LOCAL IFR
CONDITIONS...IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD ACROSS/DEVELOP OVER THE AREA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

MARINE...A TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
DURING THE REST OF THE DAY...AND WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN WINDS
AND SEAS TO THE REGIONAL WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE LOCAL ATLANTIC OFF SHORE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL GO
INTO EFFECT LATE TONIGHT FOR THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  90  78  89  78 /  60  60  60  40
STT  89  80  89  80 /  60  60  60  50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT AST
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM
     10NM TO 19.5N.

&&

09/23

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
532 AM AST MON JUL 30 2012

AMZ710>745-PRZ001>013-310945-
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-
NORTH CENTRAL-CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE AND VICINITY-NORTHWEST-
WESTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
THE NEARSHORE AND OFF SHORE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS-
532 AM AST MON JUL 30 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE ADJACENT
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT GENERATING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

MARINE CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE IN THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS AS
THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE IN IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING DUE TO WINDS AND CHOPPY SEAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
TRAILING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...MAINTAINING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER REPORTS WILL BE APPRECIATED MAINLY LATER TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING.

AMZ715-725-VIZ001-002-310945-
ST. THOMAS ST. JOHN ADJACENT ISLANDS-ST CROIX-
NEARSHORE ATLANTIC AND ADJACENT CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS-
532 AM AST MON JUL 30 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING GENERATING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH TUESDAY. TRAILING
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH
AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...MAINTAINING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE REGION.

MARINE CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE IN THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS AS
THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE IN IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING DUE TO WINDS AND CHOPPY SEAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
TRAILING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...MAINTAINING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER REPORTS WILL BE APPRECIATED MAINLY LATER TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING.