Areal Flood Warning 20, NWS JSJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
237 PM AST FRI APR 13 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
ATLANTIC WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC THROUGH THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AS THIS HAPPENS...A COLD FRONT/SHEAR LINE WILL
MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS SATURDAY. AFTER THE FROPA A
DRIER AND STABLE AIR MAS WILL ENCOMPASS THE LOCAL REGION UNTIL AT
LEAST MID WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES THIS AFTERNOON
DEPICTED A SHEAR LINE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT JUST ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. THIS FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE/SINK TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST REACHING THE LOCAL
ISLANDS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AND LASTING POSSIBLE UNTIL EARLY
SUNDAY. AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION IN ASSOCIATION TO THE PASS
OF THE COLD FRONT. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES...THE LOW LEVEL
WINDS IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT FROM THE NORTHEAST...LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...FOCUSING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY MAINLY
SOUTH OF CORDILLERA CENTRAL. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD ACROSS THE REGION AFTER THE FROPA...INDUCING A VERY DRY
WEATHER...WINDY CONDITIONS AND COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY...MONDAY AND TUESDAY NEXT WEEK. PWAT VALUES WILL REMAIN IN
THE RANGE OF 1.40-1.60 INCHES THIS EVENING...BUT WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 2.0 INCHES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AND DECREASING RAPIDLY
AFTER THAT.

&&

.AVIATION...NMRS SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ALONG AND SOUTH OF CORDILLERA CENTRAL DURING THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...PRODUCING MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS TJPS UNTIL AT LEAST 13/23Z. ONLY VCSH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REST OF THE LOCAL TAF SITES THIS EVENING. SHOWERS THEN
INCREASE IN CVRG OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH PREDOMINANT MVFR
CIGS AND VSBYS IN MDT RAIN/SHRA AND EVENTUALLY USVI AND NCM SAT
NIGHT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH 12Z SUN AS AN
UNSEASONABLY STRONG CDFNT SWEEPS THROUGH THE LOCAL FLYING AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  75  82  73  81 /  50  90  70  40
STT  75  84  73  84 /  30  80  70  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT TO MIDNIGHT
     AST MONDAY NIGHT FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-
     CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-COASTAL
     WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-COASTAL
     WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO OUT
     10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT AST MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO
     19.5N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA
     PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

10/72

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
631 AM AST FRI APR 13 2012

AMZ710>745-PRZ001>013-141045-
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-
NORTH CENTRAL-CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE AND VICINITY-NORTHWEST-
WESTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
THE NEARSHORE AND OFF SHORE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS-
631 AM AST FRI APR 13 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE ADJACENT
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN SLOPES AND MOVE VERY SLOWLY TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY POSE A THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A STEADY RAIN. MODERATE RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST PUERTO RICO WHICH MAY
POSE A THREAT OF FLOODING IN URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY IN
THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE AND MAY REQUIRED A WIND ADVISORY FOR PARTS
OF THE ISLAND. THE STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO GENERATE ROUGH SURF
CONDITIONS AND MAY ALSO BE REQUIRED A HIGH SURF ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

RAINFALL AMOUNTS GREATER THAN 3 INCHES AND ANY REPORTS OF FLOODING
WOULD BE GREATLY APPRECIATED.

AMZ715-725-VIZ001-002-141045-
ST. THOMAS ST. JOHN ADJACENT ISLANDS-ST CROIX-
NEARSHORE ATLANTIC AND ADJACENT CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS-
631 AM AST FRI APR 13 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A STEADY RAIN. MODERATE RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED WHICH MAY POSE A THREAT OF FLOODING IN
URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY IN
THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE AND MAY REQUIRED A WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL OF
THE ISLANDS. THE STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO GENERATE ROUGH SURF
CONDITIONS AND MAY ALSO BE REQUIRED A HIGH SURF ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
632 PM AST FRI APR 13 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     FLOOD            GUAYANILLA              18.02N 66.79W
04/13/2012                   GUAYANILLA         PR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ROAD 2 BETWEEN GUAYANILLA AND PENUELAS WAS REPORTED
            FLOODED.

0430 PM     FLOOD            VEGA ALTA               18.42N 66.32W
04/13/2012                   VEGA ALTA          PR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ROAD 2 WAS REPORTED FLOODED DUE TO QUEBRADA HONDA OUT OF
            ITS BANKS.

&&

FCASTRO