Severe Thunderstorm Warning 95, NWS Jackson, KY

264 
WWUS53 KJKL 292228
SVSJKL

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
628 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012

KYC011-069-205-292245-
/O.CON.KJKL.SV.W.0095.000000T0000Z-120629T2245Z/
ROWAN KY-BATH KY-FLEMING KY-
628 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FLEMING...
NORTHERN BATH AND NORTHERN ROWAN COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM EDT...

AT 626 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A 
LINE OF GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN 
EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING 
FROM 11 MILES NORTHWEST OF GRAYSON TO MUSES MILLS TO 
CARLISLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MOREHEAD...OWINGSVILLE...SHERBURNE...HILLSBORO...WALTZ...PEBBLE...
  BETHEL...RINGOS MILLS...TRIPLETT...GRANGE CITY...CRANSTON...
  ODESSA...WYOMING...HILDA...SHARKEY...HAYS CROSSING...MUNSON...
  REYNOLDSVILLE...HALDEMAN AND GATES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE ACROSS 
ADAMS COUNTY OHIO AND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH IN MASON COUNTY KENTUCKY. 
SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM 
WINDOWS!

&&

LAT...LON 3850 8359 3843 8357 3839 8345 3839 8340
      3826 8331 3823 8330 3819 8326 3812 8385
      3821 8396 3831 8384 3836 8388 3836 8391
      3845 8399 3849 8394 3846 8385 3853 8364
TIME...MOT...LOC 2228Z 321DEG 49KT 3843 8306 3833 8353
          3828 8400
WIND...HAIL 60MPH <.50IN

$$

ABE

721 
WWUS53 KJKL 292252
SVSJKL

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
652 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012

KYC011-069-205-292303-
/O.EXP.KJKL.SV.W.0095.000000T0000Z-120629T2245Z/
ROWAN KY-BATH KY-FLEMING KY-
652 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR FLEMING...NORTHERN BATH AND
NORTHERN ROWAN COUNTIES HAS EXPIRED...

THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE WEAKENED BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR
PROPERTY...HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS.

LAT...LON 3850 8359 3843 8357 3839 8345 3839 8340
      3826 8331 3823 8330 3819 8326 3812 8385
      3821 8396 3831 8384 3836 8388 3836 8391
      3845 8399 3849 8394 3846 8385 3853 8364
TIME...MOT...LOC 2228Z 321DEG 49KT 3843 8306 3833 8353
          3828 8400

$$

ABE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
610 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012

.MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 610 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012

UPDATED THE GRIDS AND ZONES TO REFLECT THE SEVERE AND STRONG STORMS
THAT LOOK TO GRAZE OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
THESE WILL MOVE INTO A EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE THROUGH
OUR NORTHEAST CWA WITH A LARGE GUST FRONT BRINGING A STRONG POTENTIAL
FOR DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN THEIR HISTORY TO THE NORTH. HAVE ADDED THESE
ATTRIBUTES TO THE PERTINENT GRIDS AND ZONES. ALSO BUILT UP THE WIND
GUSTS IN THE NORTHEAST AND KICKED DOWN TEMPS WITH THE LIKELY
RAIN/GUST FRONT. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012

THE HEAT WAVE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE
STAYING IN PLACE. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES ARE TO TRY AND FORECAST
THE SHORT WAVES MOVING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH AND
TRY AND DETERMINE IF THEY WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO INITIATE
CONVECTION. THE HRRR WAS SHOWING A MCS TYPE OF SYSTEM BARELY
EFFECTING THE AREA NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. CONSIDERING THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...THOUGHT IT WOULD BE WISE TO INCLUDE SOME THUNDER IN THE
FORECAST. IT IS THE SAME SITUATION FOR TOMORROW...WITH ANOTHER WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THE HEAT IS PRETTY MUCH A SLAM DUNK. WE BROKE THE
THE ALL TIME RECORD FOR JACKSON AT 102 TODAY AND IT MIGHT EVEN GO UP
IN THE NEXT HOUR. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE. LONDON ALSO HIT 102
TIED THE ALL TIME RECORD FOR THE YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD CONTINUES TO FEATURE AND BROAD AND
STRENGTHENING RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS STRETCHING FROM THE FRONT
RANGE OF THE ROCKIES AND EAST OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE TN
VALLEY AS WELL AS THE SOUTHEAST. THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION...OR
THE FORECAST CHALLENGE OF THE EXTENDED IS...WITH A PROMINENT TROUGH
OVER THE NEW ENGLAND AREA AND A SERIES OF RIDGE RUNNERS DIVING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY...WILL AN MCS BE ABLE TO OVERCOME OUR DROUGHT AND MAKE
IT A BIT FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN KENTUCKY AREA. AT THIS
POINT...THE MODELS HANDLE THE OVERALL LONG WAVE PATTERN QUITE WELL
BUT JUDGING PREVIOUS RUNS COMPARED HOW THE PATTERN HAS PANNED OUT IN
THE SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE...AREAS THAT WOULD HAVE RECEIVED RAIN
ACCORDING TO THE PAST RUNS HAVE NOT COME TO PASS. THIS PROVIDES A
LOWER CONFIDENCE THAT RAINFALL WILL OCCUR IN THE EXTENDED AND GIVEN
THE FACT THAT A STRONG TO DECENT CAP WILL BE IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA. DESPITE BOTH THE EURO AND GFS SHOWING CONVECTION UNDER THE
CAP...WILL LEAN TOWARDS A DRIER FORECAST. WILL RUN THE ALL MODEL
BLEND AND COORDINATE WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES TO GO ON THE DRY SIDE
OF THE RESULT.

AFTER THE PRODUCING THE MODEL ALL BLEND AND COORDINATION WITH
NEIGHBORING FORECAST OFFICES...DECIDED TO GO WITH A DRY EXTENDED
FORECAST. THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN MODELS PRODUCING QPF IN THE
EXTENDED UNDER THE CAP AND THE WORSENING DROUGHT CONDITIONS AIDED IN
THIS DECISION. BETTER INTERROGATION WILL BE NEEDED IN LATER RUNS IF
EASTERN KENTUCKY IS TO GET MEASURABLE RAIN BUT SOME BETTER SUPPORT
ARRIVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON THU INTO THU NIGHT THAT MAY PUT
DOWN SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN BUT AT THIS POINT...FELT A DRY FORECAST
WOULD BE A BETTER REPRESENTATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1031 AM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012

VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
CONTROL LOCALLY...WITH LIGHT WLY WINDS AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS. SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT SATURDAY NIGHT FOR KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM....SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...JJ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
233 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-302145-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...MOUNT STERLING...
OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD...IRVINE...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...
MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...SOMERSET...LONDON...MONTICELLO...
WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...BARBOURVILLE...MIDDLESBORO...
PINEVILLE...HARLAN...SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...PAINTSVILLE...
CAMPTON...SALYERSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG...BEATTYVILLE...JACKSON...
HINDMAN...BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...MANCHESTER...HYDEN...WHITESBURG...
INEZ...PIKEVILLE
233 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT SATURDAY NIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 100 DEGREES AGAIN TODAY RESULTING
IN VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES THIS AFTERNOON. WITH ONGOING
DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY...THIS WILL CREATE
A HEIGHTENED RISK FOR WILDFIRES TO SPREAD RAPIDLY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TO FORM LATE
THIS AFTERNOON NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. IF A STORM FORMS...IT
MAY BECOME STRONG AND PRODUCE WIND GUST UP TO 45 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO NEAR 100 THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE COMMONWEALTH. WITH ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS PRESENT
ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY AND LITTLE TO NO RAIN FORECAST
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THE ELEVATED THREAT FOR WILDFIRES IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

MB/JJ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
559 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012

KYZ044-050>052-059-060-104-106-292300-
MENIFEE-MONTGOMERY-POWELL-ROWAN-BATH-ELLIOTT-FLEMING-MORGAN-
559 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012

...A LINE OF GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES
THROUGH 700 PM EDT FRIDAY EVENING...

   MENIFEE...
   NORTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY...
   NORTHERN MORGAN...
   EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL POWELL...
   ROWAN...
   BATH...
   ELLIOTT AND
   FLEMING.

AT 556 PM EDT...A LINE OF GUSTY THUNDERSTORM WINDS WAS LOCATED
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR FALMOUTH TO MAYSVILLE TO NEAR
MANCHESTER OHIO...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 65 MPH.

RESIDENTS IN ADVANCE OF THIS LINE CAN EXPECT GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO
50 MPH AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...TO BE FOLLOWED BY THUNDERSTORMS
WITH BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL.

ABE