Severe Thunderstorm Warning 94, NWS Jackson, KY

396 
WWUS53 KJKL 162152
SVSJKL

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
552 PM EDT SAT JUN 16 2012

KYC011-069-205-162202-
/O.CAN.KJKL.SV.W.0094.000000T0000Z-120616T2215Z/
ROWAN KY-BATH KY-FLEMING KY-
552 PM EDT SAT JUN 16 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN FLEMING...NORTH
CENTRAL BATH AND NORTHWESTERN ROWAN COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR
PROPERTY...HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS
THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 3853 8364 3852 8362 3851 8362 3850 8359
      3846 8357 3843 8358 3842 8354 3827 8349
      3820 8368 3848 8380
TIME...MOT...LOC 2152Z 352DEG 5KT 3839 8367

$$

JACOBSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
308 PM EDT SAT JUN 16 2012

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT SAT JUN 16 2012

CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA IS FINALLY ON THE WANE...AND EXPECT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SHORT RANGE MODELS DID NOT HANDLE TODAY/S
CONVECTION VERY WELL...AND AM NOT VERY CONFIDENT IN MODEL SOLUTIONS
FOR POTENTIAL CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MODELS INSIST ON
AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...THOUGH WITH DIFFERENT
SCENARIOS ON LOCATION AND TIMING. HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH A DRY
FORECAST OVERNIGHT...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE TO THE FAR WEST BY
EARLY SUNDAY. EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION AGAIN ON SUNDAY. WITH
SHORT WAVE SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY SUNDAY AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE A LITTLE MORE
ORGANIZED BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE IDEA
OF SOME SHOWERS LINGERING INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY. MADE ONLY SLIGHT
MODIFICATION TO TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE SHORT TERM PART OF THE
FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT SAT JUN 16 2012

A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD WITH
HOT AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER. WOULD NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT ISOLATED
CONVECTIVE PRECIP...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE
SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS BELOW 20 PERCENT.

AN UPPER TROUGH HEADING EAST SOUTHEAST IS STILL EXPECTED TO FLATTEN
THE RIDGE AND SUPPRESS IT SOUTHWARD LATE IN THE WEEK. THE GFS ALLOWS
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AS THIS STARTS TO HAPPEN...BUT
OTHER MODELS REMAIN DRY. WITHOUT A DISCERNIBLE SIGNIFICANT FEATURE
TO FOCUS CONVECTION...AND WITH WEAK FLOW...THINK THAT IF PRECIP
OCCURS THE COVERAGE WOULD REMAIN LOW. WILL USE A 20 PERCENT POP FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT THE UPPER
TROUGH CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. WITH THE MORE
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR CONVECTION...WILL USE CHANCE POPS CLOSE TO
MEXMOS FOR THIS TIME FRAME.

ON SATURDAY THE MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH AXIS PASSING TO OUR EAST AND
THE WEAKENING SURFACE FRONT DROPPING TO OUR SOUTH. ANY LINGERING
PRECIP WILL END AND DRIER AND AT LEAST SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR SHOULD
BEGIN TO ARRIVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT SAT JUN 16 2012

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH GREATEST COVERAGE IN THE SME AND
LOZ AREAS. OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. THE CONVECTION WILL
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING...BUT WHERE RAIN HAS OCCURRED SOME FOG WILL
FORM TONIGHT. HAVE PLACED MVFR VISIBILITIES IN THE SME AND LOZ TAFS
FOR EARLY SUNDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ON TAP AGAIN FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...SBH
LONG TERM....HAL
AVIATION...SBH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
356 PM EDT SAT JUN 16 2012

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-172300-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
356 PM EDT SAT JUN 16 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY...AND THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. A FEW OF THE STORMS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS WITH SMALL
HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH BEING THE MAIN THREATS.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY HAIL OR WIND DAMAGE TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON ON SUNDAY.

SBH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
517 PM EDT SAT JUN 16 2012

KYZ060-106-108-109-162145-
MENIFEE-MAGOFFIN-MORGAN-WOLFE-
517 PM EDT SAT JUN 16 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES THROUGH 545
PM EDT SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

   NORTHWESTERN MAGOFFIN...
   EXTREME EAST CENTRAL MENIFEE...
   MORGAN AND
   EAST CENTRAL WOLFE.

AT 517 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LICKING
RIVER...OR NEAR WEST LIBERTY...MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...WEST LIBERTY
AROUND 525 PM EDT...INDEX AROUND 530 PM EDT...GREEAR AROUND 535 PM
EDT...MALONE AROUND 540 PM EDT...WELL STATION AROUND 545 PM EDT...

RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT HEAVY RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO ONE
INCH PER HOUR...GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
SMALL HAIL IN THESE AREAS.

JACOBSON