Severe Thunderstorm Warning 89, NWS Jackson, KY

618 
WWUS53 KJKL 211713
SVSJKL

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
113 PM EDT MON MAY 21 2012

KYC051-109-129-189-211730-
/O.CON.KJKL.SV.W.0089.000000T0000Z-120521T1730Z/
JACKSON KY-OWSLEY KY-LEE KY-CLAY KY-
113 PM EDT MON MAY 21 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EXTREME NORTH
CENTRAL CLAY...SOUTHWESTERN LEE...OWSLEY AND EAST CENTRAL JACKSON
COUNTIES UNTIL 130 PM EDT...

AT 108 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM LOWER BUFFALO TO ENDEE TO ISLAND CITY...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.
PENNY SIZE HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THESE DAMAGING WINDS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  BOONEVILLE...BLAKE...GRASS...STAY...TURIN...MAJOR...CHESTNUT GAP...
  CONKLING...LEROSE...EVERSOLE...TAFF...SOUTHFORK...TRIXIE...
  COWCREEK...GOBBARD AND RICETOWN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...PREFERABLY INSIDE A 
STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURE'S LEADING KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 3746 8358 3744 8358 3737 8362 3733 8365
      3734 8376 3737 8385 3749 8388 3755 8382
      3751 8358 3750 8358
TIME...MOT...LOC 1713Z 292DEG 11KT 3750 8368 3744 8373
          3737 8376
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 0.75IN

$$

JP

672 
WWUS53 KJKL 211730
SVSJKL

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
130 PM EDT MON MAY 21 2012

KYC051-109-129-189-211740-
/O.EXP.KJKL.SV.W.0089.000000T0000Z-120521T1730Z/
JACKSON KY-OWSLEY KY-LEE KY-CLAY KY-
130 PM EDT MON MAY 21 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL CLAY...
SOUTHWESTERN LEE...OWSLEY AND EAST CENTRAL JACKSON COUNTIES HAS
EXPIRED...

THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE WEAKENED BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR
PROPERTY...HOWEVER SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH
THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

LAT...LON 3746 8358 3744 8358 3737 8362 3733 8365
      3734 8376 3737 8385 3749 8388 3755 8382
      3751 8358 3750 8358
TIME...MOT...LOC 1713Z 292DEG 11KT 3750 8368 3744 8373
          3737 8376

$$

PELTON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1105 AM EDT MON MAY 21 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1100 AM EDT MON MAY 21 2012

A FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF TODAY.
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT SKIES ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY HAVE BEEN CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR ALL MORNING LONG. THIS TREND
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE CLOUD COVER
BEGINS TO FILL IN FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
RADAR IMAGERY HAS REVEALED A SIMILAR TREND...WITH NO SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OCCURRING ACROSS ANY PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL EVENTUALLY BEGIN TO FORM AND MOVE
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY. WITH THAT IN
MIND...PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WERE
DECREASED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST TRENDS AND MODEL DATA. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE FROM MID AFTERNOON ONWARD. A FEW
ADJUSTMENTS WERE ALSO MADE TO TEMPERATURES...DEWPOINTS...AND
WINDS...BUT ONLY TO ESTABLISH NEW TRENDS BASED ON THE HOURLY
OBSERVATIONAL DATA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT MON MAY 21 2012

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE GRIDS TO REFLECT THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS
AND SKY COVER. A FEW HINTS OF SHOWERS HAVE STARTED OVER PARTS OF
EAST KENTUCKY AND THE EARLIER CONVECTION TO THE WEST HAS WANED AS
EXPECTED. ACCORDINGLY...NUDGED POPS UP THROUGH THE AREA AND TOOK THEM
DOWN IN THE WEST THROUGH 15Z. ALSO FINE TUNED THE T AND TD GRIDS FOR
OBS AND TRENDS. NDFD GRIDS AND WEB FORECASTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON MAY 21 2012

06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS GENERAL AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY. THERE IS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
CURRENTLY JUST ENTERING THE NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY. AHEAD
OF THIS...A NORTH TO SOUTH AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
FOUND EXTENDING FROM WESTERN/CENTRAL INDIANA DOWN THROUGH THE
WESTERN HALF OF KENTUCKY. WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN THE
INDIVIDUAL CELLS IN THIS AREA ARE MOVING VERY SLOWLY...IF AT ALL. OF
MESOSCALE INTEREST...A WELL DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS MOVING EAST
TOWARD THE CWA AT A STEADY CLIP AND THIS MAY KICK OF SOME CONVECTION
LOCALLY AHEAD OF SCHEDULE. MORE LIKELY...THOUGH...THIS BOUNDARY WILL
DISSIPATE BEFORE CAUSING TO MUCH TROUBLE...BUT MAY REMAIN A SUBTLE
FEATURE THAT COULD SUPPORT EXTRA CONVECTIVE MISCHIEF IN EAST KENTUCKY
LATER TODAY. OTHERWISE...EAST KENTUCKY IS ENJOYING A SEASONABLE NIGHT
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE
CONVECTION TO THE WEST POSSIBLY IMPINGING TOWARDS DAWN. THE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES HAVE ALLOWED A SMALL TO MODERATE RIDGE TO VALLEY
TEMPERATURE SPLIT TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG WITH SOME
PATCHY VALLEY FOG.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH A SLOWER SOLUTION TO THE
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LATER TODAY. THE BASE OF THIS
THEN AMPLIFIES A NOTCH BY MIDDAY TUESDAY AS IT CROSSES THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY WITH THE NAM12 THE STRONGEST...BUT THE LATEST ECMWF NOT FAR
BEHIND. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN COMING INTO LINE WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AND THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN A
BLENDED SOLUTION. AS A RESULT...HAVE FOLLOWED THEIR CONSENSUS BUT PUT
EXTRA EMPHASIS ON THE SPECIFICS FROM THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12 AS
THE MESOSCALE WILL LIKELY DOMINATE...AT LEAST FOR INITIAL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL PROBABLY FEATURE CONVECTION TO OUR WEST
DIMINISHING IN A DIURNAL MINIMUM THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE FIRING UP
AGAIN AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER. OUTFLOWS FROM THIS...OR JUST GENERAL
INSTABILITY...SHOULD HELP INITIATE STORMS BY MIDDAY OVER OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES. WHILE THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST
INITIALLY...ADDITIONAL MESOSCALE DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD
THEN FORM AND WORK EAST AS THE DAY WEARS ON. THE FRONT AND ITS UPPER
SUPPORT ARE NOT AWFULLY STRONG...THOUGH...SO WHILE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE AREA AT LEAST PART OF
THE DAY...THEY SHOULD BE MORE OF A GARDEN VARIETY...SLOW MOVING AND
WITH ENOUGH QUESTIONS ON COVERAGE FOR POPS JUST TO NIP AT LIKELY BY
LATE AFTERNOON. THE PCPN CHANCES WILL THEN CONTINUE AT A DIMINISHED
RATE INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES
INTO POSITION OVERHEAD AND ITS SFC REFLECTION HOLDS THE FRONT OVER
OUR AREA. IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE FRONT AND ITS CONVECTION WILL GET
FAR ENOUGH EAST BY TUESDAY MORNING TO SUGGEST THAT OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES COULD BE DRY FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE SHORT TERM...THOUGH
WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND DEEPENING ALOFT THEY MAY NOT BE SPARED
THROUGH ALL OF TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT FOR OUR WESTERN ZONES AND CLOUDS/CONVECTION IN THE EAST
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL...OR JUST ON THE COOL SIDE...ON
TUESDAY.

FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE INHERITED GRIDS AND THE LATEST MET GUIDANCE
FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIMITED TERRAIN BASED
ADJUSTMENTS TONIGHT GIVEN THE MOIST AND CLOUDY ENVIRONMENT. AS FOR
POPS...ACTUALLY ENDED UP A TOUCH HIGHER THAN THE MET GUIDANCE TODAY
AND THEN IN BETWEEN THE HIGHER MET AND LOWER MAV FOR TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT MON MAY 21 2012

MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY PLAGUE THE AREA THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK WITH MODELS HOLDING THE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS THROUGH THURSDAY. DYNAMICS ARE NOT ALL THAT GREAT FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD...BUT WITH INSTABILITY DEVELOPING EACH
AFTERNOON...THERE MAY BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. THUS...WILL RAMP POPS UP DURING
THE AFTERNOONS...WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS. BY
FRIDAY...HEIGHTS FINALLY BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION WITH VERY
MILD AIR FLOODING INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 ON FRIDAY...
SATURDAY...AND SUNDAY. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE
RIDGE AXIS CENTERED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE MEMORIAL
DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT MON MAY 21 2012

PESKY MVRF FOG AND FLEETING LIFR/VLIFR CIGS HAVE PLAGUED THE LOZ AND
SME TAF SITES SINCE JUST BEFORE DAWN. THESE WILL CLEAR SHORTLY...
OTHERWISE THE CONVECTIVE IDEAS REMAIN SIMILAR TO THE EARLIER AVN
UPDATE...IF A COUPLE OF HOURS SOONER. MORE ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE REGION FROM MIDDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO THE NIGHT. THESE MAY FAVOR THE EAST RATHER THAN THE
WEST FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH THE NIGHT. A DISCERNIBLE DIURNAL
COMPONENT SHOULD CAUSE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TO PEAK IN THE EARLY
EVENING AND THEN BACK OFF SOMEWHAT FOLLOWING SUNSET...BUT NOT LIKELY
TO COMPLETELY GO AWAY EVEN AT NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...OUTSIDE THE VICINITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM....KAS
AVIATION...GREIF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
410 AM EDT MON MAY 21 2012

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-221115-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...MOUNT STERLING...
OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD...IRVINE...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...
MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...SOMERSET...LONDON...MONTICELLO...
WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...BARBOURVILLE...MIDDLESBORO...
PINEVILLE...HARLAN...SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...PAINTSVILLE...
CAMPTON...SALYERSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG...BEATTYVILLE...JACKSON...
HINDMAN...BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...MANCHESTER...HYDEN...WHITESBURG...
INEZ...PIKEVILLE
410 AM EDT MON MAY 21 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

GREIF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1228 PM EDT MON MAY 21 2012

KYZ058-069-111-114-211700-
ESTILL-JACKSON-OWSLEY-LEE-
1228 PM EDT MON MAY 21 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES THROUGH 100
PM EDT MONDAY AFTERNOON...

   NORTHEASTERN JACKSON...
   NORTHERN OWSLEY...
   WESTERN LEE AND
   SOUTH CENTRAL ESTILL.

AT 1228 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR WIND CAVE...
OR 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF MCKEE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...OLD ORCHARD
AROUND 1235 PM EDT...ALUMBAUGH AROUND 1240 PM EDT...EARNESTVILLE
AROUND 1245 PM EDT...BANFORD AROUND 1250 PM EDT...DELVINTA AROUND
1255 PM EDT...

RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT HEAVY RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO ONE
INCH PER HOUR...GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
HAIL UP TO PENNY SIZE IN THESE AREAS.

JP