Severe Thunderstorm Warning 200, NWS Jackson, KY

327 
WWUS53 KJKL 312010
SVSJKL

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
410 PM EDT TUE JUL 31 2012

KYC071-119-312019-
/O.CAN.KJKL.SV.W.0200.000000T0000Z-120731T2030Z/
KNOTT KY-FLOYD KY-
410 PM EDT TUE JUL 31 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL FLOYD
AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KNOTT COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED 
AREA.

LAT...LON 3723 8275 3733 8254 3731 8230 3726 8236
      3722 8250 3715 8264 3715 8265
TIME...MOT...LOC 2009Z 302DEG 7KT 3722 8265

$$

KYC133-195-312030-
/O.CON.KJKL.SV.W.0200.000000T0000Z-120731T2030Z/
LETCHER KY-PIKE KY-
410 PM EDT TUE JUL 31 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN
PIKE AND NORTHEASTERN LETCHER COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM EDT...

AT 407 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF
60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR MCROBERTS...OR 12 MILES
NORTHEAST OF WHITESBURG...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  POTTERS FORK...BEEFHIDE...DUNHAM...DORTON...JENKINS...BURDINE...
  GASKILL...ADAMSON...SHELBY GAP...ASHCAMP...LOOKOUT...ELKHORN CITY
  AND CEDARVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 3723 8275 3733 8254 3731 8230 3726 8236
      3722 8250 3715 8264 3715 8265
TIME...MOT...LOC 2009Z 302DEG 7KT 3722 8265
WIND...HAIL 60MPH <.50IN

$$

JACOBSON

734 
WWUS53 KJKL 312019
SVSJKL

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
419 PM EDT TUE JUL 31 2012

KYC133-195-312030-
/O.CON.KJKL.SV.W.0200.000000T0000Z-120731T2030Z/
LETCHER KY-PIKE KY-
419 PM EDT TUE JUL 31 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EXTREME
SOUTHWESTERN PIKE AND NORTHEASTERN LETCHER COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM
EDT...

AT 416 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF
60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR DUNHAM...OR 12 MILES NORTHEAST
OF WHITESBURG...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  JENKINS...BURDINE...GASKILL...ADAMSON AND SHELBY GAP.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 3723 8275 3728 8265 3724 8245 3722 8249
      3722 8250 3715 8264 3715 8265
TIME...MOT...LOC 2019Z 302DEG 7KT 3721 8263
WIND...HAIL 60MPH <.50IN

$$

JACOBSON

264 
WWUS53 KJKL 312030
SVSJKL

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
430 PM EDT TUE JUL 31 2012

KYC133-195-312040-
/O.EXP.KJKL.SV.W.0200.000000T0000Z-120731T2030Z/
LETCHER KY-PIKE KY-
430 PM EDT TUE JUL 31 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN PIKE AND
NORTHEASTERN LETCHER COUNTIES IS BEING REISSUED...

PLEASE REFER TO THAT BULLETIN FOR THE LATEST SEVERE WEATHER
INFORMATION.

LAT...LON 3723 8275 3728 8265 3724 8245 3722 8249
      3722 8250 3715 8264 3715 8265
TIME...MOT...LOC 2030Z 302DEG 7KT 3720 8261

$$

JACOBSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
335 PM EDT TUE JUL 31 2012

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT TUE JUL 31 2012

CONVECTION THAT WAS OVER SE COUNTIES HAS DIMINISHED...THOUGH CU
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE NEAR THE TX AND OK PANHANDLE REGIONS AT MID
AFTERNOON WITH TROUGH GENERALLY FROM CENTRAL CANADA DOWN THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD. NW FLOW ALOFT IS IN PLACE
BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS. A SHORTWAVE IN THIS NW FLOW IS CURRENTLY
MOVING THROUGH ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND IS APPROACHING
THE UPPER OH RIVER VALLEY. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION HAS LOST SOME DEFINITION...BUT IS PROBABLY STILL IN PLACE
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION IN NORTHERN KY. FURTHER TO THE
NORTHWEST A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES IS STARTING TO APPROACH THE OH VALLEY.

THE SHORTWAVE WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH MODELS HINT AT ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE POSSIBLY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON WED AS WELL. INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS SUGGEST THAT ISOLATED CONVECTION COULD STILL DEVELOP OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. RECENT UPPER LEVEL
RADAR SCANS SUGGEST SHOWERS TRYING TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...CONVECTION THAT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OUR NW
IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT AND POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE OLD
OUTFLOW SHOULD AFFECT THE NORTHWEST OR NORTHERN SECTIONS DURING THE
EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES BY TO THE NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE COLD
FRONT NOW NORTHEAST OF THE OH VALLEY WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT AND WILL BECOME RATHER DIFFUSE BY WED...BUT STILL MAY BE A
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION IN THE FAR EAST...ESPECIALLY WHEN COUPLED BY
THE POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE REGION. SFC AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA SHOULD LEAD TO DRY WEATHER FOR WED NIGHT.

CONFIDENCE IN AREAL EXTENT AND TIMING OF CONVECTION FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY IN THE EVENING IS NOT ALL THAT HIGH...BUT SAT
AND RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MORE
ACTIVITY THROUGH EARLY EVENING IN THE SOUTHEAST. THIS MAY THEN BE
FOLLOWED BY ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE MID
TO LATE EVENING OR EVEN OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH.

PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP TOWARD DAWN WHERE ANY PRECIP FALLS THIS
EVENING OR OVERNIGHT...AND THEN MORE TYPICAL VALLEY FOG ON WED NIGHT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT TUE JUL 31 2012

THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT TUE JUL 31 2012

INSTABILITY AS WELL AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE OR SHORTWAVES PASSING BY IN
THE FLOW AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ISOLATED CONVECTION
POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY THROUGH INTO THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE DIMINISHING AROUND 22Z. LATER TONIGHT...AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT FROM THE NORTH MAY KICK OFF A FEW STORMS AFTER OZ ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS. WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. GIVEN LOW CHANCES OF
CONVECTION...NO CB OR TSRA ARE FORECAST AT THE TAF SITES ATTM.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM....HAL
AVIATION...JP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...RESENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
837 AM EDT TUE JUL 31 2012

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-011245-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
837 AM EDT TUE JUL 31 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES ON WEDNESDAY AND ALSO FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

GREIF