Severe Thunderstorm Warning 182, NWS Jackson, KY

106 
WWUS53 KJKL 241733
SVSJKL

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
133 PM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

KYC063-115-175-205-241745-
/O.CON.KJKL.SV.W.0182.000000T0000Z-120724T1745Z/
JOHNSON KY-MORGAN KY-ROWAN KY-ELLIOTT KY-
133 PM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ELLIOTT...EAST
CENTRAL ROWAN...NORTHEASTERN MORGAN AND NORTHERN JOHNSON COUNTIES
UNTIL 145 PM EDT...

AT 129 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM FORT GAY TO 10 MILES EAST OF CULVER TO STARK...MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 60 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THESE DAMAGING WINDS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  SANDY HOOK...LITTLE SANDY...ISONVILLE...CULVER...STEELE...
  CROCKETT...ELKFORK...MOON...CHANDLERVILLE...KEATON...WINIFRED...
  CHESTNUT...HAMMOND...SIP...BARNROCK...GILLEM BRANCH...WHITEHOUSE...
  FLATGAP...KERZ AND REDBUSH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 3823 8330 3820 8326 3820 8324 3824 8322
      3827 8316 3820 8305 3820 8301 3818 8298
      3818 8292 3811 8289 3803 8300 3798 8302
      3797 8299 3800 8294 3789 8264 3787 8265
      3785 8296 3799 8320 3832 8335
TIME...MOT...LOC 1733Z 331DEG 51KT 3812 8256 3807 8277
          3816 8306
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 0.75IN

$$

992 
WWUS53 KJKL 241744
SVSJKL

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
144 PM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

KYC063-115-175-205-241753-
/O.EXP.KJKL.SV.W.0182.000000T0000Z-120724T1745Z/
JOHNSON KY-MORGAN KY-ROWAN KY-ELLIOTT KY-
144 PM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR ELLIOTT...EAST CENTRAL
ROWAN...NORTHEASTERN MORGAN AND NORTHERN JOHNSON COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE
AT 145 PM EDT...

THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW 
SEVERE LIMITS...BUT THE STORMS REMAIN STRONG. 

LAT...LON 3823 8330 3820 8326 3820 8324 3824 8322
      3827 8316 3820 8305 3820 8301 3818 8298
      3818 8292 3811 8289 3803 8300 3798 8302
      3797 8299 3800 8294 3789 8264 3787 8265
      3785 8296 3799 8320 3832 8335
TIME...MOT...LOC 1743Z 331DEG 51KT 3799 8247 3795 8268
          3804 8297

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1237 PM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1237 PM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

MCS CONTINUES TO PROGRESS SOUTHWARD AND A WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
ALL OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AS
THIS SYSTEM PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECTED
ARRIVAL TIMES IS FROM AROUND 1 PM IN THE NORTH TO 5 PM IN THE SOUTH
(NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER). STILL RECEIVING LOTS OF REPORTS OF
DAMAGE TO THE NORTH...SO THINGS COULD GET VERY INTERESTING IN OUR
NECK OF THE WOODS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WITH AREAS IN OUR
SOUTHWEST ALREADY VERY UNSTABLE WITH 3000J/KG OF SBCAPE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1216 PM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

MCS IN SOUTHERN OHIO HAS TAKEN MORE OF A TURN TO THE SOUTH AND NOW IS
LOOKING LIKE IT MAY TAKE AIM ON MUCH OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS SYSTEM
HAS BEEN PRODUCING PRETTY WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE AS IT HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWARD...SO IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER SPC MAY END UP ISSUING A WATCH
FOR OUR AREA. THIS SYSTEM MAY EXPAND A BIT TO THE WEST AS IT TRACKS
SOUTH WITH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY TO TO FEED OFF OF JUST TO THE WEST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1057 AM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY. VERY COMPLEX PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
IT LOOKS LIKE A DIFFERENTIAL TEMPERATURE BOUNDARY MAY BECOME
ESTABLISHED AFTER THIS MORNINGS ACTIVITY EXITS...CREATING A FOCUS FOR
NEW DEVELOPMENT BASICALLY ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM MOUNT
STERLING...THROUGH JACKSON...TO HARLAN. THUS...BELIEVE THE TARGETED
AREA WILL BE OUR MORE SOUTHWESTERN ZONES...CONTRARY TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. THE HRRR SUPPORTS THIS IDEA WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN OUR SOUTHWEST. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY GENERATED FROM AN MCS CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO
SOUTHWEST OHIO. THIS WILL LIKELY PUSH THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTO
EASTERN KENTUCKY AS THIS SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTH AND EAST INTO WEST
VIRGINIA BY MIDDAY. THE AREA SEEING THE SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY
PRESENTLY WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME REGENERATING ANY INSTABILITY...BUT
AREAS UNTAPPED TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL BE A DIFFERENT STORY. THUS...THE
SEVERE THREAT STILL SEEMS REASONABLE...BUT MAINLY FOR THE SOUTHWEST
ZONES. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. IT APPEARS THE MAIN
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL START AFTER 3 PM UNTIL 9 OR 10 PM.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 804 AM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

UPDATED TO ALLOW FOR EARLIER ARRIVAL OF PRECIP POTENTIAL TODAY...WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ALREADY PRESENTLY DEVELOPING AND
ENTERING THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

THUNDERSTORMS WERE EXPLODING UPSTREAM OVER NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA AT
3 AM...WITH MORE OF THEM FURTHER NORTHWEST OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THIS ACTIVITY INITIATED NEAR A FRONTAL BOUNDARY UNDER THE
PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER RIDGE. MODELS SHOW CONVECTION RUNNING AROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND DEVELOPING/PROPAGATING INTO THE LOCAL
AREA DURING THE DAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AMPLE INSTABILITY
BUILDING DURING THE DAY...WITH CAPE LIKELY REACHING 2500-3000 J/KG.
ALTHOUGH SHEAR WILL NOT BE PHENOMENAL...IT SHOULD AT LEAST ALLOW FOR
ORGANIZATION...WITH A LIMITED AMOUNT OF BOTH SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR. IT WILL BE THROUGH A DEEP LAYER AND NOT CONCENTRATED IN THE
LOW LEVELS. ALSO FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE HIGH...IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD
OF 14-14.5K FEET. THUS...THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT LOOKS TO BE
WIND...BUT WITH STRONG INSTABILITY AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR STORM
ROTATION...HAIL ALSO NEEDS TO BE CONSIDERED.

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG INTO KY TONIGHT...AND WOULD
NOT RULE OUT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING. HOWEVER...IF
INSTABILITY IS SPENT ON EARLIER CONVECTION...CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE
IS NOT AS HIGH DURING THE NIGHT.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE FRONT RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST AND UPPER RIDGING
ALSO SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE AREA...WITH WINDS ALOFT WEAKENING. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO BE SLIGHTLY LESS...WHILE MID LEVEL TEMPS
WARM SLIGHTLY. ALL COMBINED...CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE AS FAVORABLE FOR
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...AND HAVE USED LOWER POPS ONLY IN THE SLIGHT
CHANCE RANGE ON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

THE 24.00Z MODEL SUITE REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
PERIOD BUT DOES SHOW MINOR DIFFERENCES WITH HOW THINGS END UP TOWARDS
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. AS SUCH...HAVE GENERALLY RELIED ON A
BLENDED CONSENSUS WITH A LITTLE MORE WEIGHT TO A SLIGHTLY MORE
REASONABLE 24.00Z ECMWF FOR SPECIFICS. WILL KICK OFF WITH ANY
LINGERING ACTIVITY FROM WEDNESDAY DWINDLING WITH THE USUAL LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING INFLUENCES AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY
OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES BEGINS CARVING INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND
UPPER MIDWEST. THE SFC REFLECTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TRAVERSING THE
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED RAINS
ALONG THE COLD FRONT STILL OVER THE MIDWEST AND UPPER MS VALLEY.

CURRENT CONSENSUS BRINGS THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT INTO
THE LOCAL PICTURE LATE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE DYNAMICS OF AN
UPPER LEVEL JET GRACES THE OHIO VALLEY. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST
DRIER FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY WITH POPS
PEAKING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. MODELS ARE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE
WITH THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROF...PUSHING IT THROUGH THE COAL
FIELDS ON SATURDAY AS HEIGHTS BEGIN SLOWLY REBOUNDING OVER ERN KY IN
RESPONSE TO SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES
WHILE THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL PLAINS RIDGE BEGINS REBUILDING AND
EXPANDING ACROSS THE MS VALLEY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE FOR A RELATIVELY
QUIET...IF NOT DRY SPELL OVER MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...GIVEN THE RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE
GUIDANCE SAW NO REASON TO DEVIATE TOO FAR FROM THE LATEST OFFERINGS
WHICH WERE STILL IN LINE WITH THE INHERITED NUMBERS. THIS RESULTED
IN TEMPS GENERALLY RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WITH
HEAT INDICES ON THURSDAY QUITE POSSIBLY RETURNING TO THE TRIPLE
DIGITS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BEFORE TURNING TOWARDS CLIMO ON FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE UPPER 60S THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 804 AM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE ENTERING THE FORECAST AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE. THEY WILL BRING LOCALIZED IFR TODAY. IF ENOUGH
DESTABILIZATION CAN OCCUR...SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BRING STRONG WINDS
AND POSSIBLY HAIL IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL EXPECT A RELATIVE LULL IN
PRECIP LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...FOG WILL BE A
THREAT TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS IF CLOUDS BREAK UP.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM....MB
AVIATION...HAL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
433 AM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-251100-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...MOUNT STERLING...
OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD...IRVINE...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...
MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...SOMERSET...LONDON...MONTICELLO...
WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...BARBOURVILLE...MIDDLESBORO...
PINEVILLE...HARLAN...SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...PAINTSVILLE...
CAMPTON...SALYERSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG...BEATTYVILLE...JACKSON...
HINDMAN...BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...MANCHESTER...HYDEN...WHITESBURG...
INEZ...PIKEVILLE
433 AM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND SOME OF THEM MAY
BE SEVERE. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING
WIND...BUT LARGE HAIL CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. ALSO...IF MULTIPLE
THUNDERSTORMS PASS OVER A PARTICULAR LOCATION...LOCALIZED FLOODING
MAY RESULT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AND ALSO
ON MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ANY OCCURRENCE OF DAMAGING WIND...HAIL...OR
FLOODING TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1150 AM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

KYZ044-052-104-106-241630-
ROWAN-ELLIOTT-FLEMING-MORGAN-
1150 AM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES THROUGH
1230 PM EDT TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

   NORTHEASTERN MORGAN...
   ROWAN...
   ELLIOTT AND
   SOUTHEASTERN FLEMING.

AT 1150 AM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
ELLIOTTVILLE...OR 10 MILES EAST OF MOREHEAD.  NEARLY STATIONARY.

LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...VALE AROUND
1230 PM EDT...

RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT HEAVY RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO ONE
INCH PER HOUR...GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
SMALL HAIL IN THESE AREAS.

JACOBSON