Alert archive / Kentucky / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2012

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 103, NWS Jackson, KY

June 29, 2012Johnson County, Martin County, Kentucky

NWS Jackson, KY issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jun 29, 2012, 8:00 PM EDT for Johnson County, Martin County, Kentucky. It was in force for 30 min. 2 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Jun 29, 2012, 8:00 PM EDT (00:00 UTC)
Expired: Jun 29, 2012, 8:30 PM EDT
In force: 30 min
Issued by: NWS Jackson, KY
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 1.0 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

Counties Johnson County, KY, Martin County, KY

The radar

The Jackson,KY radar (KJKL), 74 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:00 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Jun 29, 8:03 PM EDT	TSTM WND DMG	1 W Paintsville, KY	WIND MEASURED AT 68 MPH USING A HOME WEATHER STATION. SEVERAL TREES DOWNED.
Jun 29, 8:03 PM EDT	HAIL 1	1 W Paintsville, KY

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched 2 storm reports to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 3 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Cncnati-Daytn, OH (KILN), launched 00:00Z, 0.0 hours before the alert went out and 204 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 541 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -417 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1999 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 54 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 104 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 215 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

665 
WUUS53 KJKL 300000
SVRJKL
KYC115-159-300030-
/O.NEW.KJKL.SV.W.0103.120630T0000Z-120630T0030Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
800 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON KY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  JOHNSON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...
  MARTIN COUNTY IN NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...

* UNTIL 830 PM EDT

* AT 800 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
  DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
  STAMBAUGH...OR 6 MILES NORTH OF PAINTSVILLE...AND MOVING EAST AT 45
  MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  INEZ...TUTOR KEY...THELMA...WOODLAND ESTATES...PERSTON ESTATES...
  BAKER...VAN LEAR...BUFFALO...BOBBS...MEALLY...OFFUTT...
  WILLIAMSPORT...RIVER...BOONS CAMP...WHITEHOUSE...WELLS CHAPEL...
  CHESTNUT...HAMMOND...DAVISPORT AND TOMAHAWK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

TO REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL OR FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE...CALL TOLL FREE AT...1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2...
WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3774 8236 3778 8294 3799 8290 3799 8288
      3789 8264 3789 8260 3792 8261 3796 8258
      3797 8253 3795 8250 3792 8248 3788 8241
      3783 8240 3778 8232 3775 8231
TIME...MOT...LOC 0001Z 273DEG 37KT 3790 8278
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

$$

ABE

2 follow-up statements

070 
WWUS53 KJKL 300012
SVSJKL

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
812 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012

KYC115-159-300030-
/O.CON.KJKL.SV.W.0103.000000T0000Z-120630T0030Z/
JOHNSON KY-MARTIN KY-
812 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MARTIN AND
JOHNSON COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM EDT...

AT 808 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
RIVER...OR 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF PAINTSVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  TOMAHAWK...STIDHAM...WELLS AND MILO AROUND 820 PM EDT.
  INEZ...DEBORD...PEVIER AND CALF CREEK AROUND 825 PM EDT.
  ANDY...HODE...BEAUTY AND LOVELY AROUND 830 PM EDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE ADD...
WARFIELD AND KERMIT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 3774 8236 3778 8294 3799 8290 3799 8288
      3789 8264 3789 8260 3792 8261 3796 8258
      3797 8253 3795 8250 3792 8248 3788 8241
      3783 8240 3778 8232 3775 8231
TIME...MOT...LOC 0012Z 275DEG 34KT 3788 8269
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

$$

SBH

353 
WWUS53 KJKL 300024
SVSJKL

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
824 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012

KYC115-159-300034-
/O.EXP.KJKL.SV.W.0103.000000T0000Z-120630T0030Z/
JOHNSON KY-MARTIN KY-
824 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR MARTIN AND JOHNSON COUNTIES
WILL EXPIRE AT 830 PM EDT...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.

LAT...LON 3774 8236 3778 8294 3799 8290 3799 8288
      3789 8264 3789 8260 3792 8261 3796 8258
      3797 8253 3795 8250 3792 8248 3788 8241
      3783 8240 3778 8232 3775 8231
TIME...MOT...LOC 0024Z 275DEG 34KT 3786 8255

$$

SBH

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jun 29, 6:10 PM EDT, 1 hour 50 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jun 29, 6:10 PM EDT, 1 hour 50 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
610 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012

.MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 610 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012

UPDATED THE GRIDS AND ZONES TO REFLECT THE SEVERE AND STRONG STORMS
THAT LOOK TO GRAZE OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
THESE WILL MOVE INTO A EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE THROUGH
OUR NORTHEAST CWA WITH A LARGE GUST FRONT BRINGING A STRONG POTENTIAL
FOR DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN THEIR HISTORY TO THE NORTH. HAVE ADDED THESE
ATTRIBUTES TO THE PERTINENT GRIDS AND ZONES. ALSO BUILT UP THE WIND
GUSTS IN THE NORTHEAST AND KICKED DOWN TEMPS WITH THE LIKELY
RAIN/GUST FRONT. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012

THE HEAT WAVE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE
STAYING IN PLACE. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES ARE TO TRY AND FORECAST
THE SHORT WAVES MOVING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH AND
TRY AND DETERMINE IF THEY WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO INITIATE
CONVECTION. THE HRRR WAS SHOWING A MCS TYPE OF SYSTEM BARELY
EFFECTING THE AREA NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. CONSIDERING THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...THOUGHT IT WOULD BE WISE TO INCLUDE SOME THUNDER IN THE
FORECAST. IT IS THE SAME SITUATION FOR TOMORROW...WITH ANOTHER WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THE HEAT IS PRETTY MUCH A SLAM DUNK. WE BROKE THE
THE ALL TIME RECORD FOR JACKSON AT 102 TODAY AND IT MIGHT EVEN GO UP
IN THE NEXT HOUR. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE. LONDON ALSO HIT 102
TIED THE ALL TIME RECORD FOR THE YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD CONTINUES TO FEATURE AND BROAD AND
STRENGTHENING RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS STRETCHING FROM THE FRONT
RANGE OF THE ROCKIES AND EAST OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE TN
VALLEY AS WELL AS THE SOUTHEAST. THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION...OR
THE FORECAST CHALLENGE OF THE EXTENDED IS...WITH A PROMINENT TROUGH
OVER THE NEW ENGLAND AREA AND A SERIES OF RIDGE RUNNERS DIVING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY...WILL AN MCS BE ABLE TO OVERCOME OUR DROUGHT AND MAKE
IT A BIT FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN KENTUCKY AREA. AT THIS
POINT...THE MODELS HANDLE THE OVERALL LONG WAVE PATTERN QUITE WELL
BUT JUDGING PREVIOUS RUNS COMPARED HOW THE PATTERN HAS PANNED OUT IN
THE SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE...AREAS THAT WOULD HAVE RECEIVED RAIN
ACCORDING TO THE PAST RUNS HAVE NOT COME TO PASS. THIS PROVIDES A
LOWER CONFIDENCE THAT RAINFALL WILL OCCUR IN THE EXTENDED AND GIVEN
THE FACT THAT A STRONG TO DECENT CAP WILL BE IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA. DESPITE BOTH THE EURO AND GFS SHOWING CONVECTION UNDER THE
CAP...WILL LEAN TOWARDS A DRIER FORECAST. WILL RUN THE ALL MODEL
BLEND AND COORDINATE WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES TO GO ON THE DRY SIDE
OF THE RESULT.

AFTER THE PRODUCING THE MODEL ALL BLEND AND COORDINATION WITH
NEIGHBORING FORECAST OFFICES...DECIDED TO GO WITH A DRY EXTENDED
FORECAST. THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN MODELS PRODUCING QPF IN THE
EXTENDED UNDER THE CAP AND THE WORSENING DROUGHT CONDITIONS AIDED IN
THIS DECISION. BETTER INTERROGATION WILL BE NEEDED IN LATER RUNS IF
EASTERN KENTUCKY IS TO GET MEASURABLE RAIN BUT SOME BETTER SUPPORT
ARRIVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON THU INTO THU NIGHT THAT MAY PUT
DOWN SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN BUT AT THIS POINT...FELT A DRY FORECAST
WOULD BE A BETTER REPRESENTATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1031 AM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012

VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
CONTROL LOCALLY...WITH LIGHT WLY WINDS AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS. SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT SATURDAY NIGHT FOR KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM....SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...JJ

Hazardous weather outlook, Jun 29, 6:20 PM EDT, 1 hour 40 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
620 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-010130-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...MOUNT STERLING...
OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD...IRVINE...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...
MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...SOMERSET...LONDON...MONTICELLO...
WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...BARBOURVILLE...MIDDLESBORO...
PINEVILLE...HARLAN...SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...PAINTSVILLE...
CAMPTON...SALYERSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG...BEATTYVILLE...JACKSON...
HINDMAN...BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...MANCHESTER...HYDEN...WHITESBURG...
INEZ...PIKEVILLE
620 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT SATURDAY NIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

A BAND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY GRAZE THE
NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF EAST KENTUCKY EARLY THIS EVENING. DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE STRONGEST STORMS AND OUT AHEAD OF
THEM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO NEAR 100 THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE COMMONWEALTH. WITH ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS PRESENT
ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY AND LITTLE TO NO RAIN FORECAST
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THE ELEVATED THREAT FOR WILDFIRES IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL IN ANY REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS
EVENING.

JJ/GREIF

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jun 29, 7:19 PM EDT, 41 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
719 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0710 PM     TSTM WND DMG     STANTON                 37.85N 83.86W
06/29/2012                   POWELL             KY   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN COUNTYWIDE.

&&

JCARICO

Local storm report, Jun 29, 7:31 PM EDT, 29 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
731 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0710 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WEST LIBERTY            37.91N 83.27W
06/29/2012                   MORGAN             KY   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            TREES DOWN IN AND AROUND TOWN.

&&

ABE

Local storm report, Jun 29, 7:42 PM EDT, 18 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
742 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0736 PM     HAIL             RELIEF                  37.95N 83.00W
06/29/2012  E0.75 INCH       MORGAN             KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JCARICO

Local storm report, Jun 29, 7:47 PM EDT, 13 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
747 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0725 PM     TSTM WND DMG     IRVINE                  37.70N 83.97W
06/29/2012                   ESTILL             KY   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN IN TOWN AND THROUGHOUT THE COUNTY.

&&

ABE

Local storm report, Jun 29, 7:48 PM EDT, 12 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
748 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0743 PM     HAIL             FLATGAP                 37.93N 82.89W
06/29/2012  E0.88 INCH       JOHNSON            KY   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

&&

JCARICO

Local storm report, Jun 29, 7:52 PM EDT, 8 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
752 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0736 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PRESTONSBURG            37.67N 82.77W
06/29/2012                   FLOYD              KY   911 CALL CENTER

            NUMEROUS CALLS OF TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN.

&&

ABE

The office that day

Everything else NWS Jackson, KY issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 30, 5:03 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JKL	Pike	42 min
Jun 30, 5:51 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JKL	Pike	24 min
Jun 30, 6:14 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JKL	Pike	61 min
Jun 30, 6:55 PM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	JKL	Pike	107 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Kentucky, 2012 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.