Flash Flood Watch 2, NWS Jackson, KY

Bell County, KY, Breathitt County, KY, Clay County, KY, Elliott County, KY, Estill County, KY, Floyd County, KY, Harlan County, KY, Jackson County, KY, Johnson County, KY, Knott County, KY, Knox County, KY, Laurel County, KY, Lee County, KY, Leslie County, KY, Letcher County, KY, Magoffin County, KY, Martin County, KY, McCreary County, KY, Menifee County, KY, Morgan County, KY, Owsley County, KY, Perry County, KY, Pike County, KY, Powell County, KY, Pulaski County, KY, Rockcastle County, KY, Wayne County, KY, Whitley County, KY, Wolfe County, KY

124 
WGUS63 KJKL 020325
FFAJKL

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1025 PM EST THU MAR 1 2012

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...

.RECENT HEAVY RAIN HAS SATURATED THE GROUND IN MANY AREAS AND 
ALREADY BROUGHT HIGH WATER ON STREAMS. THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH
OPPORTUNITY FOR THE GROUND TO DRY BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SWEEPS INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. RAINFALL 
LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL MOSTLY RUN OFF...LEADING TO
ADDITIONAL RISES ON STREAMS.

KYZ058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-021130-
/O.CON.KJKL.FF.A.0002.120303T0000Z-120303T1500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-
MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-
MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-
LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...IRVINE...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...
MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...SOMERSET...LONDON...MONTICELLO...
WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...BARBOURVILLE...
MIDDLESBORO...PINEVILLE...HARLAN...SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...
PAINTSVILLE...CAMPTON...SALYERSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG...
BEATTYVILLE...JACKSON...HINDMAN...BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...
MANCHESTER...HYDEN...WHITESBURG...INEZ...PIKEVILLE
1025 PM EST THU MAR 1 2012

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
  INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...ELLIOTT...ESTILL...MENIFEE...
  POWELL...JOHNSON...MARTIN...LAUREL...MCCREARY...PULASKI...
  ROCKCASTLE...WAYNE...WHITLEY...BELL...BREATHITT...CLAY...
  FLOYD...HARLAN...JACKSON...KNOTT...KNOX...LEE...LESLIE...
  LETCHER...MAGOFFIN...MORGAN...OWSLEY...PERRY...PIKE...AND WOLFE.

* IT IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

* RECENT HEAVY RAIN HAS SATURATED THE GROUND IN MANY AREAS AND
  ALREADY BROUGHT HIGH WATER ON STREAMS. THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH
  OPPORTUNITY FOR THE GROUND TO DRY BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS
  AND THUNDERSTORMS SWEEPS INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. RAINFALL LATE
  FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL MOSTLY RUN OFF...LEADING TO ADDITIONAL
  RISES ON STREAMS.

* THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING AT NIGHT WILL MAKE RECOGNIZING THE
  DANGER MORE DIFFICULT. WATERWAYS MAY RAPIDLY OVERFLOW AREA ROADS
  AND LOW LYING AREAS. IN ADDITION...AS RUNOFF LATER COLLECTS INTO
  LARGER CREEKS AND EVENTUALLY RIVERS...THEY MAY ALSO SHOW
  SUBSTANTIAL RISES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

DUSTY/HAL

782 
WGUS63 KJKL 020904
FFAJKL

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
404 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT...

.RECENT HEAVY RAIN HAS SATURATED THE GROUND IN MANY AREAS AND
ALREADY BROUGHT HIGH WATER ON STREAMS. THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH
OPPORTUNITY FOR THE GROUND TO DRY BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SWEEPS INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. RAINFALL
FROM LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL MOSTLY RUN OFF...LEADING TO
ADDITIONAL RISES ON STREAMS.

KYZ058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-021715-
/O.EXT.KJKL.FF.A.0002.120302T2100Z-120303T0900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-
MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-
MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-
LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...IRVINE...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...
MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...SOMERSET...LONDON...MONTICELLO...
WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...BARBOURVILLE...
MIDDLESBORO...PINEVILLE...HARLAN...SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...
PAINTSVILLE...CAMPTON...SALYERSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG...
BEATTYVILLE...JACKSON...HINDMAN...BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...
MANCHESTER...HYDEN...WHITESBURG...INEZ...PIKEVILLE
404 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR

* PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...SOUTH 
  CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...INCLUDING THE 
  FOLLOWING AREAS...IN EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY...ELLIOTT...
  ESTILL...MENIFEE AND POWELL. IN NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...JOHNSON 
  AND MARTIN. IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...LAUREL...MCCREARY...
  PULASKI...ROCKCASTLE...WAYNE AND WHITLEY. IN SOUTHEAST 
  KENTUCKY...BELL...BREATHITT...CLAY...FLOYD...HARLAN...
  JACKSON...KNOTT...KNOX...LEE...LESLIE...LETCHER...MAGOFFIN...
  MORGAN...OWSLEY...PERRY...PIKE AND WOLFE.

* FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT

* RECENT HEAVY RAIN HAS SATURATED THE GROUND IN MANY AREAS AND
  ALREADY BROUGHT HIGH WATER ON STREAMS. THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH
  OPPORTUNITY FOR THE GROUND TO DRY...AS THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS
  AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SWEEP INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING.
  ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE ON FRI AFTERNOON COULD
  PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE THREAT OF ISOLATED FLASH
  FLOODING. IN ADDITION...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CROSS THE
  REGION THIS EVENING...EXITING INTO VIRGINIA BY LATE TONIGHT. THIS
  LINE OF STORMS HAS THE POTENTIAL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL LOCALLY HEAVY
  RAINFALL THAT COULD ALSO LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING...AND ADDITIONAL
  RISES ON STREAMS.

* THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING AT NIGHT WILL MAKE RECOGNIZING 
  THE DANGER MORE DIFFICULT. WATERWAYS MAY RAPIDLY OVERFLOW AREA 
  ROADS AND LOW LYING AREAS. IN ADDITION...AS RUNOFF LATER 
  COLLECTS INTO LARGER CREEKS AND EVENTUALLY RIVERS...THEY MAY 
  ALSO SHOW SUBSTANTIAL RISES. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

JP

866 
WGUS63 KJKL 021605
FFAJKL

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1105 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT...

.RECENT HEAVY RAIN HAS SATURATED THE GROUND IN MANY AREAS AND
ALREADY BROUGHT HIGH WATER TO STREAMS. THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH
OPPORTUNITY FOR THE GROUND TO DRY BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SWEEPS INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. RAINFALL FROM LATE
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL MOSTLY RUN OFF...LEADING TO ADDITIONAL
RISES ON STREAMS.

KYZ058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-022200-
/O.CON.KJKL.FF.A.0002.120302T2100Z-120303T0900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-
MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-
MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-
LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...IRVINE...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...
MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...SOMERSET...LONDON...MONTICELLO...
WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...BARBOURVILLE...
MIDDLESBORO...PINEVILLE...HARLAN...SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...
PAINTSVILLE...CAMPTON...SALYERSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG...
BEATTYVILLE...JACKSON...HINDMAN...BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...
MANCHESTER...HYDEN...WHITESBURG...INEZ...PIKEVILLE
1105 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...SOUTH 
  CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...INCLUDING THE 
  FOLLOWING AREAS...IN EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY...ELLIOTT...
  ESTILL...MENIFEE AND POWELL. IN NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...JOHNSON 
  AND MARTIN. IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...LAUREL...MCCREARY...
  PULASKI...ROCKCASTLE...WAYNE AND WHITLEY. IN SOUTHEAST 
  KENTUCKY...BELL...BREATHITT...CLAY...FLOYD...HARLAN...
  JACKSON...KNOTT...KNOX...LEE...LESLIE...LETCHER...MAGOFFIN...
  MORGAN...OWSLEY...PERRY...PIKE AND WOLFE.

* FROM 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT

* RECENT HEAVY RAIN HAS SATURATED THE GROUND IN MANY AREAS AND
  ALREADY BROUGHT HIGH WATER TO STREAMS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
  EARLY TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BY
  MID AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE THREAT OF ISOLATED
  FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DEVELOP
  LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN ADDITION...A LINE OF
  THUNDERSTORMS WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING...EXITING
  INTO VIRGINIA BY LATE TONIGHT. THIS LINE OF STORMS HAS THE
  POTENTIAL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD ALSO
  LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING...AND ADDITIONAL RISES TO STREAMS.

* THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING AT NIGHT WILL MAKE RECOGNIZING 
  THE DANGER MORE DIFFICULT. WATERWAYS MAY RAPIDLY OVERFLOW AREA 
  ROADS AND LOW LYING AREAS. IN ADDITION...AS RUNOFF LATER 
  COLLECTS INTO LARGER CREEKS AND EVENTUALLY RIVERS...THEY MAY 
  ALSO SHOW SUBSTANTIAL RISES. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

KAS

880 
WGUS63 KJKL 022105
FFAJKL

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
405 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.RECENT HEAVY RAIN HAS SATURATED THE GROUND IN MANY AREAS AND
ALREADY BROUGHT HIGH WATER TO STREAMS. THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH
OPPORTUNITY FOR THE GROUND TO DRY BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SWEEPS INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS EVENING. RAINFALL
FROM THIS EVENING WILL MOSTLY RUN OFF...LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLASH FLOODING.

KYZ058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-030500-
/O.CON.KJKL.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-120303T0900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-
MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-
MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-
LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...IRVINE...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...
MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...SOMERSET...LONDON...MONTICELLO...
WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...BARBOURVILLE...
MIDDLESBORO...PINEVILLE...HARLAN...SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...
PAINTSVILLE...CAMPTON...SALYERSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG...
BEATTYVILLE...JACKSON...HINDMAN...BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...
MANCHESTER...HYDEN...WHITESBURG...INEZ...PIKEVILLE
405 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...SOUTH 
  CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...INCLUDING THE 
  FOLLOWING AREAS...IN EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY...ELLIOTT...
  ESTILL...MENIFEE AND POWELL. IN NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...JOHNSON 
  AND MARTIN. IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...LAUREL...MCCREARY...
  PULASKI...ROCKCASTLE...WAYNE AND WHITLEY. IN SOUTHEAST 
  KENTUCKY...BELL...BREATHITT...CLAY...FLOYD...HARLAN...
  JACKSON...KNOTT...KNOX...LEE...LESLIE...LETCHER...MAGOFFIN...
  MORGAN...OWSLEY...PERRY...PIKE AND WOLFE.

* THROUGH LATE TONIGHT

* RECENT HEAVY RAIN HAS SATURATED THE GROUND IN MANY AREAS AND
  ALREADY BROUGHT HIGH WATER TO STREAMS. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
  CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...EXITING INTO VIRGINIA BY LATE
  TONIGHT. THIS LINE OF STORMS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
  ADDITIONAL LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD LEAD TO FLASH
  FLOODING...AND ADDITIONAL RISES TO STREAMS.

* THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING AT NIGHT WILL MAKE RECOGNIZING 
  THE DANGER MORE DIFFICULT. WATERWAYS MAY RAPIDLY OVERFLOW AREA 
  ROADS AND LOW LYING AREAS. IN ADDITION...AS RUNOFF LATER 
  COLLECTS INTO LARGER CREEKS AND EVENTUALLY RIVERS...THEY MAY 
  ALSO SHOW SUBSTANTIAL RISES. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

KAS

138 
WGUS63 KJKL 030506
FFAJKL

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1206 AM EST SAT MAR 3 2012

KYZ058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-030615-
/O.CAN.KJKL.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-120303T0900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-
MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-
MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-
LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...IRVINE...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...
MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...SOMERSET...LONDON...MONTICELLO...
WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...BARBOURVILLE...
MIDDLESBORO...PINEVILLE...HARLAN...SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...
PAINTSVILLE...CAMPTON...SALYERSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG...
BEATTYVILLE...JACKSON...HINDMAN...BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...
MANCHESTER...HYDEN...WHITESBURG...INEZ...PIKEVILLE
1205 AM EST SAT MAR 3 2012

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. HEAVY RAIN HAS EXITED THE AREA...
ENDING THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT.  
 
$$

GEOGERIAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1232 PM EST THU MAR 1 2012

.SHORT TERM.../THE REST OF TODAY/...UPDATED

HIGH PRESSURE FOR SUNNY SKIES...AND SW WINDS WILL PUMP THE MERCURY
BACK UP TO THE 60S THIS AFTERNOON. ZERO CHANCE FOR RAIN AND WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD THE WINDS SHOULD BE LACKING A SIGNIFICANT GUST
FACTOR. TWEAKS TO THE GRIDS WITH THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE ZONES TO
REMOVE THE HIGHER GUSTS.

THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EST THU MAR 1 2012

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE OVERALL WEATHER
PATTERN AND SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE CONSENSUS
IS FOR A WARM FRONT TO MOVE NORTHWARD OUT OF THE DEEP SOUTH AND
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES. THE INITIAL ROUND OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF
RAIN SHOWERS AND GARDEN VARIETY THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...AS THE COLD
FRONT TRAILING FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW MOVES ACROSS
INDIANA...KENTUCKY...AND TENNESSEE...A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. AT THIS TIME THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER IN OKLAHOMA HAS ISSUED A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE LATEST MODEL DATA IS ALSO SOMEWHAT SUPPORTIVE OF THIS
SCENARIO. THE MODEL SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS ARE DEPICTING ELEVATED
INSTABILITY LATE IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY WHICH WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF
THUNDERSTORM FORMATION. THE MODELS AREA ALSO SHOWING A 50-60KT LOW
LEVEL JET STREAM MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM LATE FRIDAY MORNING INTO
FRIDAY EVENING. THIS STREAM OF AIR WILL PUMP A LARGE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS.
THIS IN TURN WOULD PROVIDE THE ENERGY NEEDED IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE FOR STRONG VERTICAL MOTION TO OCCUR...AND THEREFORE
STRONG THUNDERSTORM UPDRAFTS.

THE WINDS WILL ALSO LIKELY INCREASE IN SPEED AND CHANGE DIRECTION
WITH HEIGHT ON FRIDAY...LEADING TO MODERATE TO STRONG WIND SHEAR.
THIS TYPE OF WIND FIELD WOULD BE VERY SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY STRONG STRAIGHT LINE WINDS
AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES. THE ONE MAJOR DETERMINING FACTOR OF HOW
STRONG THE STORMS ON FRIDAY ARE ABLE TO BECOME WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT
THE STORMS WILL BECOME SURFACE BASED. THE LATEST MODELS INDICATE THAT
THERE WILL BE AN AMPLE SUPPLY OF MOIST UNSTABLE AIR FROM THE SURFACE
UP TO AROUND 8000 FEET OFF THE GROUND ON FRIDAY. WITH A DEEP LAYER OF
COLD AND DRY AIR FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE ABOVE THE LOWER LEVEL MOIST
AIR...THE ATMOSPHERE COULD BECOME VERY UNSTABLE BY THE END OF THE DAY
ON FRIDAY. THEREFORE...AT THE VERY LEAST IT APPEARS THAT THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE WEATHER LATE IN THE DAY ON
FRIDAY ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED DURING THE
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES...WINDS...AND DEWPOINTS WERE IN PRETTY GOOD
SHAPE OVERALL. A FEW ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE TEMPERATURES FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...GOING GENERALLY WITH A BLEND OF THE LATEST
MOS GUIDANCE. THERE WILL BE A NICE WARM UP TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S EXPECTED ACROSS THE BOARD. TEMPERATURES ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO SOAR INTO THE UPPER 60S AND PERHAPS LOWER 70S ON FRIDAY
AFTER A WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE PREFERRED MODELS FOR
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WERE THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND SREF
MODELS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 440 AM EST THU MAR 1 2012

THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY ACTIVE AT THE START...AND THEN
RATHER QUIET THROUGH MIDWEEK.

EARLY IN THE PERIOD...A RATHER DEEP TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL
US WITH ASSOCIATED DEEP SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING BY TO OUR
NORTH AND WEST AS IT HEADS INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON FRI
EVENING AND NIGHT AND BRING A LINE OR LINES OF THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
POSSIBLY SEVERE THAT COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN. THE AXIS OF THE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST AS
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES AND A
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL TRACK INTO THE OH VALLEY ON SUN OWING TO
STRONG NW FLOW. THE AXIS OF THIS TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF
THE REGION ON SUN NIGHT INTO MON. HEIGHT RISES WILL THEN ENSUE WITH
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND STOUT SFC HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING INTO
MIDWEEK EVEN AS THE SFC HIGH SLIPS EAST TO A POSITION OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD.

THE MAIN CONCERN THIS PERIODS INITIALLY IS THE THREAT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ON FRI EVENING. THE SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK PLACES THE EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA IN A MODERATE RISK. EXACT TIMING OF
THUNDERSTORMS THIS PERIOD IS PROBLEMATIC...BUT A LINE OF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ENTERING WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA BY
FRI EVENING OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER AND THEN SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE
REGION BY AROUND MIDNIGHT ON SATURDAY. CAPE PROBABLY IN THE 500 J/KG
RANGE TO 1000 J/KG WILL BE PRESENT EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH
RELATIVELY LOW WBZ HEIGHTS NEAR 9KFT ON FRI EVENING. MID LEVEL DRY
AIR MAY ALSO BE PRESENT DURING FRIDAY EVENING AND AMPLE MOSTLY
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. THIS SHOULD FAVOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THEN POSSIBLE QLCS TYPE ACTIVITY
ALONG THE FRONT. DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT...THOUGH
LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA. AT THE SAME TIME...THERE COULD
BE SOME TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS WELL THAT COULD LEAD TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS THE BOUNDARY MAY AT LEAST BRIEFLY BECOME
NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW COMBINED WITH PW PROGGED TO
CLIMB INTO THE 1 TO 1.25 INCH RANGE ON FRI EVENING.

CATEGORICAL POPS WERE USED ON FRI NIGHT AND THEN DRY NW AND SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE FURTHER SOUTH AS APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
COULD LINGER SHOWERS NEAR THE VA BORDER A BIT LONGER. SAT AND INTO
SAT NIGHT WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH WEAK SFC RIDGING BUILDING
FOR A TIME. THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION ON SAT
NIGHT AND SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE OH VALLEY REGION ON SUN INTO SUN
NIGHT. TEMPS ALOFT...AT 850 MB ARE PROGGED TO GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW
0C...WITH LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SHOULD BRING SHOULD BRING TEMPS TO
AT LEAST THE LOWER TO MID 40S IN MOST PLACES ON SUN. IF CLOUDS MOVE
IN QUICKER ON SUN...THESE COULD BE SLIGHTLY LOWER. HOWEVER...SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED ON SUN AFTERNOON AND INTO SUN EVENING. THESE
SHOULD FALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN ON SUN INTO SUN EVENING AND THEN AS
THE CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES BY ON SUN EVENING INTO SUN NIGHT...ANY
LEFTOVER SHOWERS WILL EVENTUALLY FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW. THE
CHANGEOVER SHOULD OCCUR A FEW HOURS EARLIER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
ABOVE 2000 FEET. MODELS PROG MOISTURE TO LINGER NEAR 850 MB INTO MON
WHICH IS PROGGED TO BE NEAR THE -10C LEVEL...ESPECIALLY EARLY.
INSTABILITY AND UPSLOPE SHOULD LEAD TO ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS EARLY IN
THE FAR SOUTHEAST ON MON...WITH SOME EARLY MORNING FLURRIES POSSIBLE A
TO THE NW. THE CHANCES FOR THIS SHOULD RAPIDLY DIMINISH BY MIDDAY ON MON.
IF STRATOCU LINGER A BIT LONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST ON MONDAY...
MAX T COULD FALL A COUPLE OF DEGREE SHORT OF THE CURRENT FORECAST.

SFC AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN DOMINATE THROUGH
MIDWEEK. THIS SHOULD FAVOR GRADUALLY MILDER DAYS AND RIDGE/VALLEY
TEMP SPLITS AT NIGHT. SOME LOWER MIN RH IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE BY TUE
OR WED DUE TO THE STOUT SFC HIGH TO OUR EAST...DRY AIR MASS PROGGED BY
THE MODELS AND LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SFC HIGH WELL TO OUR EAST AND THE NEXT
APPROACHING SYSTEM COULD LEAD TO SOME GUSTY WINDS TUE AND/OR WED
AFTERNOONS AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM EST THU MAR 1 2012

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE VFR WEATHER... BUT EXPECT GUSTY SW WINDS
UNTIL AFTER SUNSET. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE
AREA ALONG WITH A FEW SHRA AROUND DAWN. TSRA... POTENTIALLY SEVERE...
IS ANTICIPATED TOWARDS THE END OR SHORTLY AFTER THIS TAF PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...DUSTY
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM....JP
AVIATION...DUSTY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
519 AM EST THU MAR 1 2012

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-021200-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
519 AM EST THU MAR 1 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

RUNOFF FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO HIGH WATER ON THE
KENTUCKY RIVER AT RAVENNA AND HEIDELBERG.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND
HEAVY RAIN. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

AR/JP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1223 PM EST THU MAR 01 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0305 PM     TSTM WND DMG     NANCY                   37.07N 84.75W
02/29/2012                   PULASKI            KY   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            TREE DOWN IN NANCY. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

RAY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
105 PM EST THU MAR 01 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0142 PM     TORNADO          1 N GRASSY CREEK        37.88N 83.35W
02/29/2012                   MORGAN             KY   NWS STORM SURVEY

            AN EF2 TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN AT 142 PM EST 1 MILE NORTH OF
            GRASSY CREEK AND MOVED EAST SOUTHEAST TO MALONE. THE PATH
            LENGTH WAS 5 MILES. WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 120 MPH.

&&

RAY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
134 PM EST THU MAR 01 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0342 PM     TSTM WND DMG     KIMPER                  37.50N 82.35W
02/29/2012                   PIKE               KY   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            TREES DOWN ON HIGHWAY 194.

&&

RAY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
135 PM EST THU MAR 01 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0352 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PHELPS                  37.51N 82.16W
02/29/2012                   PIKE               KY   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            TREES DOWN ON HIGHWAY 194 AND HIGHWAY 632.

&&

RAY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
137 PM EST THU MAR 01 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0352 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WOODMAN                 37.52N 82.05W
02/29/2012                   PIKE               KY   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            TREES DOWN ON ROUTE 2059 IN WOODMAN.

&&

RAY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
148 PM EST THU MAR 01 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MOUNT PISGAH            36.66N 84.81W
02/29/2012                   WAYNE              KY   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            TREES DOWN ON HIGHWAY 167 JUST NORTH OF MOUNT PISGAH.
            TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

RAY