Areal Flood Advisory 21, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
808 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 807 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

MADE A MAJOR UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND
MODEL TRENDS. EARLIER IN THE EVENING...SEVERAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
MOVED ACROSS THE AREA DROPPING QUARTER TO HALF DOLLAR SIZED HAIL
ACROSS THE AREA. THE STORMS ALSO BROUGHT HEAVY RAIN WITH IT AND SOME
AREA THAT HAD TRAINING CELLS GOT REPORTS OF FLASH FLOODING. THE WORST
OF THE FLASH FLOODING APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN IN LESLIE COUNTY. ANOTHER
LINE OF STRONG STORMS IS CURRENTLY ENTERING EASTERN KENTUCKY AND WE
EXPECT SOME OF THE STORMS TO STAY SEVERE. THIS LINE OF STORMS ARE
TRANSITIONING FROM MOSTLY HAIL TO A MIXTURE OF HAIL AND WIND. EXPECT
THESE STORMS TO CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY OVER THE NEXT
TWO TO FOUR HOURS. FLASH FLOOD IS A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY OVER AREA
THAT PREVIOUSLY RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...UPDATED

ITS SUMMERTIME IN MARCH...WITH SLOW MOVING POORLY ORGANIZED PULSE
TYPE CONVECTION TAKING PLACE. IT TOOK ON AN MCS TYPE STRUCTURE LATE
LATE LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING...BUT THIS BROKE DOWN WITH SURFACE
HEATING AND ADDITIONAL SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY...WHICH
IS NOW ONGOING.

THE THUNDERSTORMS WERE BECAUSE OF MOIST FLOW OFF THE GULF OCCURRING
UNDERNEATH WEAK SHORTWAVES AND COLD TEMPS ALOFT. SURFACE BASED LIFTED
INDICIES WERE RUNNING FROM -3 TO -6 OVER THE JKL FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT WEAK SHEAR WAS PREVENTING ANYTHING MORE THAN MARGINAL
SEVERE HAIL REPORTS. HOWEVER...THE WEAK FLOW WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

ONE CONCENTRATED AREA OF CONVECTION WAS OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA AT MID AFTERNOON...AND ANOTHER AREA OVER WESTERN
KENTUCKY. WILL EXPECT A DECREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOSS OF HEATING. THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
WESTERN KENTUCKY ACTIVITY IS SHOWN BY BOTH THE GFS AND NAM TO MOVE
EAST AND POSSIBLY AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY THE
NORTH. HAVE USED LIKELY POPS THERE...AND CHANCE TO THE SOUTH. THE
PASSING OF THE SAME WAVE BRINGS A LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIP TO THE REST OF
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. AS THE WAVE SHIFTS EAST AND HEATING IS LOST ON
FRIDAY NIGHT...WANING OF THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED. SHEAR WILL AGAIN
BE WEAK ON FRIDAY...SO THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD NOT BE ANY GREATER
THAN TODAY. THE BIGGEST THREAT LOOKS TO BE HAIL FROM PULSE STORMS
ONCE AGAIN...SHOULD ENOUGH DESTABILIZATION BE ABLE TO TAKE PLACE.

.LONG TERM.../SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...UPDATED

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON SATURDAY WITH AN ACTIVE
MERIDIONAL PATTERN IN PLACE. THIS SUMMER LIKE PATTERN FEATURES A
500MB RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
US. WHILE THE MODELS SEEM TO HAVE THE LONGWAVE PATTERN DOWN...THE
ACTUAL PROGRESSION OF THE WEAK SHORTWAVES AND SIGNIFICANT FEATURES
ARE LESS CONSISTENT TO SAY THE LEAST. WILL EXUDE A LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE EXTENDED FORECAST DUE TO THIS PATTERN.

WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM 500MB TO THE SURFACE...EXPECTING A DEEP
MOIST FLOW FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. THE UPPER LEVELS WILL FEATURE
SOME WEAK DISTURBANCES RIDING UP OVER THE RIDGE...KEEP THE OHIO
VALLEY IN AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTEN WITH CHANCE POPS PRETTY MUCH
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED. THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE ON A DIURNAL TYPE PATTERN...PULSING WITH THE HEAT OF
THE DAY. THE RIDGE WILL REBOUND BY TUESDAY GIVING A BRIEF REPRIEVE
IN THE PRECIP BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT DEVELOPS AND MOVES EAST INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY.

OVERALL...THE EXTENDED INITIALIZATION PROVIDED SOME CHANCE POPS FROM
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH MAX TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...REACHING THE UPPER 70S INTO THE LOW 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 807 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

A LINE OF VERY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE TAF
STATIONS BETWEEN 00-03Z. BEHIND THIS LINE...THERE WILL JUST BE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOOK WELL BEHIND THE APPROACHING
LINE...THE CIGS HAVE STAYED VFR. WITH THIS IN MIND...JUST EXPECT SOME
TEMPO MVFR AS STORMS MOVE ACROSS THE AIRFIELDS WITH IFR POSSIBLE WITH
THE STRONGEST STORMS. THIS UNSETTLE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JJ
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...JJ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
955 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-161000-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...MOUNT STERLING...
OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD...IRVINE...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...
MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...SOMERSET...LONDON...MONTICELLO...
WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...BARBOURVILLE...MIDDLESBORO...
PINEVILLE...HARLAN...SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...PAINTSVILLE...
CAMPTON...SALYERSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG...BEATTYVILLE...JACKSON...
HINDMAN...BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...MANCHESTER...HYDEN...WHITESBURG...
INEZ...PIKEVILLE
955 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THESE STORMS
WILL ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
UP TO 30 MPH. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
BECOME VERY ISOLATED. AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN THIS EVENING ARE
SUBJECT TO CREEKS AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS RUNNING FULL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AT TIMES...MAINLY FROM FRIDAY INTO THE DAY
MONDAY...AND ALSO ON WEDNESDAY. THE GREATEST PROBABILITY IS ON
FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT ANY OCCURRENCE OF SEVERE WEATHER OR
FLOODING TO THE JACKSON WEATHER OFFICE.

JJ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
842 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

KYZ106-108-109-111-112-160115-
MAGOFFIN-MORGAN-WOLFE-LEE-BREATHITT-
842 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES THROUGH 915
PM EDT THURSDAY EVENING...

   CENTRAL MAGOFFIN...
   EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL MORGAN...
   SOUTHERN WOLFE...
   EAST CENTRAL LEE AND
   NORTHERN BREATHITT.

AT 842 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LANE...OR NEAR
CAMPTON...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...PAXTON AROUND
850 PM EDT...MOCT AROUND 855 PM EDT...MOUNTAIN VALLEY AROUND 900 PM
EDT...DALE AROUND 905 PM EDT...EUGENE AROUND 910 PM EDT.

RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT HEAVY RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO AN
INCH PER HOUR...GUSTY WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
SMALL HAIL IN THESE AREAS.

THE HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS.
MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO DRIVE CAREFULLY.

RAY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
855 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0851 PM     HEAVY RAIN       BARBOURVILLE            36.87N 83.88W
03/15/2012  U0.00 INCH       KNOX               KY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TRU-SEAL FACTORY ROOF COLLAPSE DUE TO HEAVY RAIN. 3
            INJURIES, ALL PERSONNEL ACCOUNTED FOR.

&&

DUSTY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
902 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

KYZ088-113-115-117-118-160145-
KNOTT-LESLIE-LETCHER-PERRY-HARLAN-
902 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES
THROUGH 945 PM EDT THURSDAY EVENING...

   SOUTHERN KNOTT...
   EASTERN LESLIE...
   LETCHER...
   EASTERN PERRY AND
   NORTHEASTERN HARLAN.

AT 901 PM EDT...SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM DRYHILL TO DALEY TO DIVIDE...OR ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM HYDEN TO 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HYDEN TO 9 MILES
NORTHEAST OF HARLAN...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...VIPER AROUND
910 PM EDT...ULVAH AROUND 915 PM EDT...BULAN AROUND 920 PM EDT...
CORDIA AROUND 925 PM EDT...RITCHIE AROUND 930 PM EDT...

RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT HEAVY RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO ONE
INCH PER HOUR...GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING
IN THESE AREAS.

THE HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS.
MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO DRIVE CAREFULLY.

RAY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
931 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0929 PM     DEBRIS FLOW      2 SE WARBRANCH          36.95N 83.42W
03/15/2012                   LESLIE             KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL MUDSLIDES REPORTED ON HIGHWAY 2058.

&&

KAS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
936 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0929 PM     DEBRIS FLOW      3 S MOZELLE             36.96N 83.40W
03/15/2012                   LESLIE             KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MUDSLIDES FORCED LANE CLOSERS ON SEVERAL PORTIONS OF
            HIGHWAY 421 FROM MILE MARKER 0 NEAR THE HARLAN COUNTY
            LINE NORTH TO ABOUT MILE MARKER 10.

&&

KAS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
945 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0940 PM     FLASH FLOOD      7 WNW BEATTYVILLE       37.62N 83.83W
03/15/2012                   LEE                KY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            6-12 INCHES OF WATER WERE COVERING ONE LANE OF KY HWY 52
            1 MILE EAST OF THE ESTILL COUNTY LINE.

&&

JJ