Special Weather Statement, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
920 AM EDT MON OCT 8 2012

.UPDATE...A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER NE FL IN COMBINATION WITH
A SHORT WAVE MOVING IN FROM THE GULF WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. BEST COVERAGE
WILL BE ACROSS NE FL. 12Z JAX SOUNDING SHOWING TEMPS ALOFT HAVE
WARMED A COUPLE OF DEGREES. HOWEVER...THE MODIFIED SOUNDING (USING
THE MAX TEMP OF 84) SHOWS A CAPE OF 3400J AND WITH STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND MODEST 700-300 MB SHEAR COULD SEE A FEW STRONG
STORMS AGAIN WITH POTENTIAL OF FQT LTG...STRONG WINDS...AND HAIL.
CLOUD COVER (FROM APPROACHING SHORT WAVE) WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS DOWN
SOMEWHAT INITIALLY BUT WILL HAVE ENOUGH BREAKS IN CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL HELP BOOST MAX TEMPS SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW
STRONG STORMS. NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SE GA...COOLER
TEMPS WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS. HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY
FOR NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...IFR VSBY STILL NEAR VQQ BUT NEARLY ALL SITES IN CWA ARE
P6SM WITH MULTILAYERED CLOUDS. IFR CONDS AT VQQ MAY CONT FOR ABOUT
ANOTHER HOUR. OTHERWISE FOR A GOOD PART OF THE DAY...VFR CIGS CONDS
ARE EXPECTED UNTIL SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS AND STORMS FORM. BEST CHANCES
OF PRECIP WILL BE IN THE AFTN AND MAINLY IN NE FL. DUE TO NELY LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOR LOCATIONS FROM BRUNSWICK TO JAX AREA...THEY
MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN VICINITY OF TERMINALS THROUGH
16Z...THEN DAYTIME HEATING WILL GENERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIP. MVFR
SHRA/TSTMS EXPECTED. WILL LIKELY NEED TO INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP IN NE
FL TAFS LATER TODAY BUT FOR NOW WILL CARRY VCTS UNTIL WE SEE TRENDS
DEVELOP. LOOKING TOWARD LATE TONIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES S OF
THE AREA...LOW CLOUDS ARE GOING TO BE LIKELY WITH IFR TO POSSIBLY
LIFR CIGS DEVELOPING IN THE 06Z-12Z TIME FRAME.

&&

.MARINE...FRONTAL BOUNDARY BISECTS COASTAL WATERS IN A SW-NE
ORIENTATION WITH A NE-E WIND NEAR 10 KT IN THE GA WATERS AND
VARIABLE TO SW OVER PORTIONS OF THE NE FL WATERS. SEAS ARE 1-3 FT.
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WINDS FOR THE CWF UPDATE.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW WINDS AND SEAS DICTATE A LOW RISK TODAY. SOME
ENHANCEMENT OF RIPS POSSIBLE TUE WITH A BIT MORE ONSHORE COMPONENT
S OF MAYPORT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  78  57  77  56 /  40  20  10  10
SSI  81  66  76  67 /  50  50  10  10
JAX  84  64  79  62 /  60  60  10  10
SGJ  85  71  81  69 /  60  50  20  10
GNV  86  64  84  61 /  60  50  10  10
OCF  87  68  85  62 /  60  50  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

PP/ARS/SC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1056 AM EDT MON OCT 8 2012

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-091000-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-HAMILTON-
SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-ST JOHNS-
GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-
APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-
COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
1056 AM EDT MON OCT 8 2012

...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. STORM MOTION WILL BE NORTHEAST AROUND 10 TO
15 MPH. MOST OF THE STORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AFTER 8 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

NORTHEAST FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH WINDS
AND SEAS POSSIBLY REACHING SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CRITERIA
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION...A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
MAY BE POSSIBLE AT AREA BEACHES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS
ARE ASKED TO SELF ACTIVATE IF WARNINGS ARE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1221 PM EDT MON OCT 8 2012

FLZ024-081645-
NASSAU-
1221 PM EDT MON OCT 8 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR EASTERN NASSAU
COUNTY FOR STRONG WINDS AND FUNNEL CLOUDS VALID UNTIL 1245 PM EDT...

AT 1221 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED OVER AMELIA CITY...MOVING NORTH AT 5
MPH. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS AROUND AMELIA CITY
AND FERNANDINA BEACH THROUGH 1245 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50
MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. DOPPLER RADAR
HAS INDICATED WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM. TORNADOES MAY DEVELOP
WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE WARNING.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3051 8145 3054 8149 3055 8149 3057 8151
      3066 8151 3068 8143 3055 8143 3052 8142
TIME...MOT...LOC 1621Z 192DEG 6KT 3058 8145

SHASHY